XIII Oceans

Round 19 Previews

Two terrific games on SKY last week, giving the viewing public as much entertainment as they can rightfully expect.  Of course such brilliant games get tarnished with bitter, biased match reports but even they couldn’t spoil what felt like a special RL weekend with the memories of David Topliss at the forefront.  Topliss was a player whose best years were really before my time, however that didn’t stop the tribute that SKY did before the Hull KR-Wakefield game being a very moving piece of television. 

Talking about television and I was relegated to watching the Leeds-Saints game on a small screen, in a pub, in Gretna last Friday and managed to watch the entire game without football interruptions (that was on the big screen).  Nothing exciting in that I know, except me watching the RL prompted a guy to come over and chat (these arseless leather chaps are hot man).  This guy was from Middlesbrough but was a Hull KR fan and we had a good discussion about the game and I’m sure that everyone finds it fascinating that you can go somewhere completely different and have a great reaction with any committed RL fan.  If you ever end up somewhere off the beaten track and see somebody watching RL or with a RL shirt on you have to go over and say something.  I know it gets tiring talking about RL as if it’s the world’s greatest secret sport (which it is!) but that friendliness knows no bounds and because of the nature of our sport it generates that kind of loyalty, trust and respect between fans. 

Onto this week’s previews…

Warriors v Harlequins RL (+10)
There was plenty of RL logic applied in predicting Harlequins RL loss to the Giants last week, the trouble is that RL logic, like most sports, encompasses the importance of the mental location of teams and I think that sometimes people overlook that.  This game throws up a very interesting battle of wills with both teams likely to be coming from a negative position from where they’ll be looking to build themselves a platform for the playoffs.  Thanks to equalling disappointing runs of results for the two teams above them, Harlequins RL are still in there hanging in the hunt for sixth and with Saints visiting The Stoop next week they’ll be happy taking something out of either of these next two fixtures.  Next week might just present a better opportunity for Harlequins RL because the Warriors will be exceptionally keen to get their forthcoming JJB residence off to a flyer, the momentum possible from the home stretch of games can push them beyond their current position.  That incentive courted with Harlequins RL being in a bit of a rut on the road is usually all the RL logic that you need to suggest a home win.  I expect Harlequins RL to give a more honest performance this week against a pack that can be brushed aside but the return of Hock should be enough for the Warriors particularly because Paleaaesina usually turns up against the little boys of London.  Warriors by 10.

Leeds v Castleford (+14)
When I saw that the time and date of this fixture I was concerned that it was going to be the Saturday night SKY game.  Who wants to watch a big guy beat up on the little guy?  Nobody really so it makes you wonder if there’s any coincidence that this game was placed in this round because it was always likely that Leeds would have several players backing up from the night before.  Does anybody read that much into games?  Even if they did I’m sure you’d have the kind of fringe lunatic, that inhabits every set of fans, coming up and saying that this isn’t a mismatch because we’ve already beaten them at home.  Here’s the thing.  Shock results can happen, but when you start basing your entire belief system on that sort of outcome you are Talking Heads.  Orville bemoaned his side’s inability to convert chances last week against the Warriors and had they, the Tigers would have had another impressive win to go alongside several spectacular scalps and disappointing defeats.  This weekend’s game is different though with strong possibilities that the champions will not be letting their international players backup from the day before.  Even if they do there’s still question marks about how competitive the Rhinos will be.  Apply your RL logic now.  Leeds by 4.

Bradford v Hull KR (+8 )
Texas hold ‘em put paid to Rovers last week as they folded on the turn when in control and now they face a difficult task in getting back into the playoff picture.  It’s one thing losing, it’s another losing to a side that you believe to be of similar ability to yourself that’s ahead in the table.  I don’t think I’m underestimating the importance of that result to Rovers and defeat this weekend will put them five points behind sixth spot.  Meanwhile, the Bulls returned to winning ways against Hull and the margin of victory is enough for you to side with the home side again and a couple of weeks ago I pointed out that their fixtures would assist them in keeping touch with the teams above.  This game is very winnable for the Bulls and I believe that they’re strong enough at home to get a grip on this game with the way that Rovers just haven’t kicked on in the second part of the year, not that Webster’s absence has anything to do with that either.  Bulls by 8.

Hull v Warrington (Scr)
Battle of the former assistants and a match that means a lot more to the visitor’s prospects than it does the hosts.  That doesn’t really make much difference to how determined either side will be, with both sets of players having something to prove, no matter how different they are.  For Hull it’s places up for grabs next year and a willingness to demonstrate that this coach and side are worthy of discussion when it comes to trophy contenders in Super League XIV.  The Wire troops on the other hand are still in with a shout of a decent playoff position and when they’re in that mix anything can happen, unless they get an away trip to Saints.  The similarities continue by looking back at last week’s games when I imagine both sets of fans might have had a sneaking feeling that their side could cause an upset and I wouldn’t decry them for that (I even tipped Warrington).  Unfortunately harsh reality entered the fray and focus shifts towards this interesting game.  If there were any growing positive attitudes towards Lowes, defeat in Perpignan will have pushed several floaters into my pragmatic approach to Wire’s coaching appointment, which is a good thing for the club and can only serve to highlight the uncertainty that Agar’s appointment has.  Whatever your position on the coaching appointment situation at either club, Agar is talking tough, defending his side and has the fish wives providing the vocal support so although I look at those line ups and see Warrington’s attacking prowess, the KC is usually the kind of place where you’re more likely to get Numberwanged than be part of it.  Hull by 4.

St Helens v Huddersfield (+14)
Like Leeds, Saints have several players expected to play a part in Friday’s international which could make this Sunday tussle more interesting that it should be.  Huddersfield appear to have rediscovered their feel for the game which is attributable to the departure of Jon Sharp and subsequent ‘new coach’ factor.  Can they take advantage of the strain Friday’s international could put on Saints?  I would imagine that the Giants temporary coaching team will be plainly aware of that and will use it as a motivation tool at a time when confidence is on the rise.  Any advantage gained from last week’s tremendous victory over the champions can quickly disappear down the drain if Saints slip up here and there is certainly scope to do that.  You’d probably have to go back to the days of Harold Wagstaff, or as far back as when the Giants last had a five figure attendance, to when the Giants last won at Knowsley Road so this threatens to be a tight game.  As Daniel Anderson is reported to only be deciding on the morning of the game on who will be playing for Saints this is a tricky one and like the Leeds-Cas game even if the internationals are selected the exertions from tonight are likely to distort this match-up from what it would normally be.  Saints by 2.

Wakefield v Catalans Dragons
Game of the round presents a chance for the Wildcats to stake a serious claim to a playoff spot.  Is it a feasible win given Catalans consistency this year?  Well one of the pundits stated last week that people haven’t been sure about what to make of the Dragons and last week’s walloping of Wire pushed their credentials into the serious contenders sect.  As impressive as that scoreline was, the way in which the Wildcats chased the game and won was symptomatic of a team that is playing with confidence and a belief that has eluded more star-studded sides.  I think that Kear knows that if his side is in a similar situation on Tuesday they’re unlikely to be able to produce that sort of comeback against the Dragons.  At Belle Vue only Leeds find it easy to come here and claim victory amongst the heckles and with a few of the French players backing up from tonight this could be a great win for Wakefield.  I say great win because if they do it’ll be nose bleed time for their fans who haven’t been as high since their old 70s glue heydays.  Despite a win pushing the Wildcats closer to Catalans it’s unlikely to give them more breathing space from those behind.  Does that make any difference?  It could take a bit of pressure off, knowing that victory doesn’t cement their position, and it could add some which is why you consider the internal strengths of the two sides.  Catalans have grown into a confident side, whereas I think that Wakefield are still growing into that and it’ll be a focus on a fascinating tussle between the winning professionalism of the Catalans Australian contingent and this new found Rhubarb Triangle Zen mysticism that John Kear has built into his team.  Wildcats by 2.

Last week’s predictions.

Leeds by 8 (lost by 14)
Wolves by 4 (lost by Numberwang)
Rovers by 8 (lost by 8 )
Bulls by 6 (won by 14)
Warriors by 10 (draw)
Giants by 2 (won by 10)

Ouch!  Tough week last week thanks to a couple of great away performances and a disappointing one making the overall total 67-42 (62%).

Round 18 Previews

Spare a thought this week for those who have to attend weddings this Friday when football is likely to be on in the local instead of Super League XIII’s top of the table clash.  Let’s just hope there’s SKY on the hotel bedroom telly instead.

Leeds v Saints
Game of the round opens up the weekend’s action as first plays host to second in an eagerly anticipated contest of the team’s that have been at the forefront of the competition for the last three years.  During that time there has been a gradual shift from one power base to the other as Leeds Grand Final crescendo moved them to the top of the pile without criticism.  The champions had become champions on merit and not by default, reflecting a teamwork ethic that had enabled them to manhandle the favourites in that game and begin their own overdue era of dominance.  Halfway through the season and there’s reason to believe that this new era is one that can be sustained with youngsters coming through the Leeds ranks that appear to have more to them than their predecessors.  Is that relevant to Friday’s game?  To an extent it’s looking that way with the Leeds bench looking like it’s going to be a lot stronger than the visitors, which is important because you know for both these teams that a good portion of their strength comes from the interchanges.  Saints will be looking to a step up from Bryn Hargreaves with Fa’asavalu a doubt and that’s a lot to ask.  At Bradford, earlier in the season, the visitors overcame front row absences so there is capacity in the side to win, however that wasn’t against a defence as good as Leeds.  This is game of the round because it’s first against second but I’m not sure it’s going to shape us as good as recent Leeds-Saints encounters have.  Leeds by 8.

Catalans Dragons v Warrington
In any other week this would probably be my selection of game of the week as third welcomes fourth with both teams registering good home wins last time out.  By beating the Warriors the Dragons put five points between themselves and the team below them although it’s likely that the Warriors will claw back two points with their game in hand.  Nevertheless, nobody outside of Michael Potter would have suggested that the French side would have been in this position when predicting, either at the start of the year or a couple of years ago, when the franchise first came to life.  Victory at home against Warrington gives the Dragons hope of holding onto the top two with tricky away trips to Wakefield and Hull to follow, whereas a win for the Wolves builds momentum for Lowes’ appointment and keeps them in the battle for third.   Given that there was another Numberwang epic in Perpignan last week the chances have to be good for the Wolves this week with their own defence tightening up and though Catalans usually don’t break they was a lot of bend in there.  Common sense says that consistency lies with the Dragons, however I’m going to go with the momentum and confidence that goes with a couple of quick wins and a new coach to further confirm that this isn’t a set of half-arsed players, just poorly coached ones.  Wolves by 4.

Hull KR v Wakefield
Saturday night’s SKY dust-up looks to be everything that the weekend’s second televised game should be.  Two teams battling for a playoff spot with the homers having more on the line that the visitor.  Here this means that a Wakefield win pushes Rovers five points away from the bottom of those playoff positions.  That isn’t a nightmare scenario but given the way that Rovers started off the year it would be a disappointment at this stage.  For the Wildcats there’s more to think about than just Rovers with the Bulls and Harlequins RL sat two points behind and you’d fancy that at least one of those two will leapfrog Wakefield should results go against Kear’s men.  It was a two point game earlier this season with Wakefield holding on for the win and it’s the Wildcats that have impressed the most out of the two since then.  I don’t think they’ve improved enough to go to Rovers and go home with the win.  The intimidating atmosphere, Rovers’ solid pack, Paul Cooke’s nocturnal driving habits and the snowballing Luke Sykes For Mod campaign are a lot for Kear’s Kernels to shift aside.  Throw in an away record that says Wakefield can win away from home, providing it’s against a bottom two side, and you imagine that this will be a game of errors for the visitors.  That plays right into Paul Cooke’s murderous mind.  Rovers by 8.

Bradford v Hull
Indiscipline and poor decision making are the two main criticisms for the Bulls arising from last week, but it wasn’t a performance devoid of positives and in true coaching fashion, Steve McNamara will be heralding those as foundations for future progress.  Despite missing several regulars the Bulls more than matched Saints in parts and it wasn’t until their persistent indiscipline came to the forefront that the game went away from them.  The visit of Hull presents a testing opportunity for the Bulls and they’ll be confident of returning to winning ways even if Hull will feel there isn’t a better time to visit Odsal, especially having won there in the cup.  Much will depend on the mental fragility of the Bulls for this game.  Hull have been through their pitiful moments and are playing out their season with gay abandon and the comfort of knowing that from here on in it’s mainly preparation for next season and World Cup spots.  It’s a fascinating period for Bulls watchers which their supporters won’t be able to appreciate and it’s also a period that appears to be a true transition for the side.  It’s unusual for sides that aren’t in the top two or three in the league to register back-to-back away wins against the same side and it’s on that basis that I’m siding with the Bulls.  Fragile their mental state may be (who knows what another home defeat would do here) and fragile it may remain after this game.  Whatever the case, the Bulls can struggle here and still come up with a result, which might be crucial if the two teams above them harness victories on the road.  Bulls by 6.

Castleford v Warriors
Aside from being a place where the top two have been ambushed, The Jungle plays host to the Warriors last away game before they hit a stretch of five home games out of the next six and it’s probably the easiest away trip you can ask for this season.  I’m not sure you can say much more about this game than that.  Yes, Castleford have sprung three surprises this year and when you look at the relatively modest points for that the visitors have, you can make a case for this game being a banana skin for Brian Noble’s men.  Sadly for the Tigers that banana skin is purely metaphorical, preventing an unfair meal deal temptation for Gareth Hock that could have things swinging the Tigers way.  In many ways confrontations involving creatures like Tigers and Hock bring you back to the bare necessities of life and if you examine them you’ll find that a better side on paper usually equates to a better side on the pitch.  Warriors by 10.

Huddersfield v Harlequins RL
My run of form with Harlequins RL continues and donations have come in by the half a sixpence load to get me to tip a home win in the final game of the round.  I’m quite happy to do that usually but the Giants don’t really have the kind of form that lends itself to predicting a win for them.  Where does that leave this match-up?  It has to be Harlequins RL for this game doesn’t it?  How can anyone back against a side that’s come off the biggest win of their coach’s career?  Well let’s just hold it a moment.  We are talking about the Harlequins RL side that grabs hold of the opposition and hangs on until the mistakes fall their way, the same side that is as capable of exploding defensively as it is offensively and the same Harlequins RL that seems to play better when not at full strength.  Too much thinking about this match and you’ll end up at the same point.  Logic says Harlequins RL but league wisdom says the Giants are the exact type of underperforming goofballs that spoil the party for Brian McDermott and having folded on their trip to The Stoop earlier in the year there’s just too much going for the Spivs.  It’s a grave mistake for my Harlequins brethren if I tip them for a victory so I’m going to side with the fact that Harlequins RL haven’t won away in the league since visiting the Halliwell Jones and the Giants only lost by two at Wakefield, simple as that.  Giants by 2.

Last week’s predictions;

Saints by 10 (won by 38 )
Catalans by 1 (won by 7)
Leeds by 12 (lost by 4)
Hull by 12 (won by 26)
Wakefield by 10 (won by 2)
Wolves by 8 (won by 18 )

A good week wherein only one result against the odds making it 65-38 overall (64%).

Round 17 Previews

Saints v Bradford (+18 )
There’s unlikely to be a big travelling support following three consecutive losses for the Bulls tonight.  Those that do travel will be hoping for improvement against a Saints side who are appearing on screen near enough every week during the summer.  Viewers might have anticipated a more competitive game last week, for Saints, although the cup tie exertions for Rovers crowded those thoughts and instead Saints found it relatively easy to avenge their round one loss.  Glen Morrison’s absence is going to be too much for the Bulls to plough into the top three without some sort of miraculous changing of gears and although Steve McNamara still has his side nestled in the six, last week’s defeat moved them out of contention for second.  Defeat for the Bulls here might have most dismissing their chances of third but they have three games coming up that you would expect them to win.  What’s perhaps more important on Friday is that improvement that the fans will need to protect McNamara’s hold on the top spot.  Since close scrapes at home to Hull and Wakefield, Saints’ have been near perfect at the GPS and the absence of key Bulls personnel should ensure that continues, heaping more pressure on ol’ labium lips.  Saints by 10.

Catalans Dragons v Warriors (+2)
Unfortunately this week’s game of the round was never in contention for being on SKY which is a disappointment because this promises to be an excellent match.  Three points separate the sides with a game in hand for the Warriors so it’s a big head-to-head and one in which an away win will shift this into a three-way race for second.  This threatens to be a tight contest and both teams have triumphed in close run games already thise year, in fact Catalans appear to have a habit of making games close.  How that will pan out is difficult to tell because a lot will rest on discipline because these are defences that can knuckle down in the red zone, but repeated pressure via penalties is usually too much eventually.  With Catalans being almost at full strength the visitors will hope that this is one of those games where the opposing forwards aren’t able to get on top too easily which is a concern that’s been fuelled by the Warrior’s ball retention difficulties.  Fortunately for the Warriors their top penalty machine and error maker, O’Loughlin, has been ruled out for several weeks which should increase their statistical chances of winning.  It’s been suggested that I’ve overestimated the Warriors this season and yet here they are, in the hunt for not just the top six but second and with seven of their last ten at home you fancy that they will finish strong.  I think that this is as tight as you can get before a match and the exertions at Odsal bring the two sides even closer with a lot dependent upon Gareth Hock’s fitness.  If he plays, the Warriors will have their second most destructive runner on the field and they will need that because Catalans will make you work for any victory.  Catalans by 1.

(+14) Harlequins RL v Leeds
Are Harlequins RL running out of steam?  Two rounds ago I placed a lot of emphasis on how important it was for Hull KR to beat Harlequins RL because of their following trip to Saints.  Had I looked at the following fixtures for Harlequins RL I probably wouldn’t have made much noise about them with the way that Warrington were playing but a loss last week has McDermott’s side staring at a three, possibly four, point gap between them and sixth place.  There’s a trip to Huddersfield next week, which could go either way, followed by a trip to the Warriors before facing Saints at home.  Winning some of these next four games might now be critical to making the top sixth because you expect at least one of Wakefield, Rovers and Warrington are going to continue collecting points.  I’m not so sure we’re at that stage though yet because those other three don’t have easy games over the same period and there are two head-to-heads in there as well.  Can Harlequins RL stop this Leeds machine though?  Against the Bulls and Hull the difference between the relative attacks was like that between a machine gun and revolver.  McDermott’s military experience probably doesn’t extend far enough to overwheleming Blitzkriegs but his side have stood up to the Rhinos in patches this year.  Can his side manage that for eighty minutes?  Can McDermott get his side to respond to losses in the manner that they were doing earlier in the year?  I’m sure he can, I’m just not crazy enough to suggest that a force like the Rhinos are going to allow his side to do that.  Oh and before we forget, Jamie Peacock is back for the champions as well.  Leeds by 12. 

Hull v Castleford (+12)
Whilst Warrington and Huddersfield appear to be taking a considered approach to appointing their new coach, Hull FC ploughed straight in, dumping their news in amidst football promotion excitement.  Was there time for fans’ comments?  Time to get some sort of reaction?  Does it really matter?  Agar has settled things down with solid outings in defeat to the top two either side of a heroic battle at Bradford.  For his first pressured game he’s got the relatively tame Tigers to play with, a good start you might say.  A good start it will be if Hull manage to take the two points with something resembling a professional display, a shaky win or less will push the focus towards the next opponents, Bradford and Warrington and as up and down as those two have been I wouldn’t want to chance snake eyes on either.  Castleford wilted last week and sadly for their fans the £1m derby is looking as one-sided as other more glamorous ones are.  Once Wakefield got in front there didn’t appear to be any way back into the game for Cas despite a propensity for promoting the ball that shames teams higher up in the table.  However, this trip does offer an opportunity for Clive Anderson if only on the basis of his counterpart, Agar, being an unknown quantity at this stage.  The earlier meeting between these two teams though saw Hull’s conservatism win through and you expect that to be repeated here because no matter how positive Castleford are with the ball they can’t hide those defensive weaknesses.  Hull by 12.

Wakefield v Huddersfield (+6)
This marks the Giants first game post-Sharp and I doubt there’s much irony lost as their former coach, John Kear, sails forward and becomes one of the most respected coaches of his generation.  Although those Giants fans were happy at the time to see him go, I suspect that there’s some envy emanating from them at how Wakefield appear to have managed some consistency under Kear.  Sunday’s game should see an interesting encounter with the Giants all but out of the playoff picture, little in the way of pressure on the side and hidden promises that they might be about to let the ball take to the air.  Earlier in the year it was mentioned that the Giants have some talent in their side but it’s something that’s rarely been present at the same time as a good pack outing.  This is where the two teams differ.  Wakefield have managed to put up a good show in the forwards and maintain a positive, expansive game which is reaping rewards.  There isn’t much for the Giants to lose now and that week off they’ve just had would have been useful for them, however this is a must-win for Wakefield with victory likely to push them into the top six.  More importantly for the Wildcats, with Harlequins RL hosting Leeds and Rovers taking a ride to Warrington, they could be looking at giving themselves a three point cushion from the team in eighth.  Wakefield by 10.

Warrington v Hull KR (+10)
Great result for Wire last week and it’ll be more of the same this week.  Rovers will be hoping for a better performance than the drubbing at Saints but there’s every chance that the home side will have gained enough mental strength to continue where they left off.  Although the Wolves started as favourites last week there were still questions as to how much of an impact Cullen’s departure would have.  Lowes states that he wants the job, he’s getting the chance to audition and victory here will strengthen his claims.  In the last preview I said that a good winning run wouldn’t change my mind on Lowes and I haven’t changed on that.  For a team of Warrington’s quality and aspirations there’s too much risk associated with giving a fresh coach the appointment.  Rovers’ penalty count costly them dearly last week and a similar approach puts this Warrington attack in prime position to play to their strengths.  Had this been at Rovers I could see their workmanlike pack pushing them to the win but a combination of Lowes’ honeymoon period and the fact that the Wolves have been underperforming means that it’s two in a row for the home side.  Wolves by 8.

Last week’s predictions;

Leeds by 10 (won by 16)
Saints by 12 (won by 42)
Wakefield by 4 (won by 16)
Bulls by 8 (lost by 8 )
Harlequins RL by 6 (lost by 16)

Mixed week with the two away wins making an overall figure of 60-37 (62%).