“We all hate Leeds”, so the mantra goes and it’s one that is unlikely to be anything other than enforced by last night’s climax to an incredible end-of-season run.  Now though, it’s time.  It’s time for you to re-arrange your brain.  We moved from resigned acceptance of Leeds as champions through to begrudging respect without apportioning  more to a team containing such apparent underachievers as Sinfield, McGuire, Bailey and Burrow.  Underachievers who have snared their fourth title in five years.  Four titles in five years.  Four titles in five years and every single one of them during not just the professional era but the salary cap era.  Breathtaking underachievement.

Once again Super League’s own Henry V, Kevin Sinfield, gave another faultless performance as he inspired his archers to repel one of the competition’s nobility.  Written off as early as May, we observed the big game club of the past decade become one of the greatest of all-time.  That’s right.  From being the greatest Leeds team ever to one of the best sporting teams we are likely to see.  Whislt Melbourne and Manly have challenged year-on-year so Leeds Rhinos have won year-on-year.  We cannot be faint in lavishing our praise irrespective of your assessment on individual players.  The sum is greater than the parts and, in one of the world’s sports where individual capability can easily be exposed, in four Grand Finals they haven’t been.  Four Grand Final wins over Super League’s most successful silverware securers.

I am tired of barometers of success in our game being that of the international stage.  It does nothing other than denigrate what have been moments of true sporting magic.  We should not be so harsh.  When Steven Gerrard lifted Liverpool not once did I tether his heroics with the weight of international results.  He remains a brilliant footballer.  Believing in international displays as a barometer should not be neglected, however it should not be the only comparison and certainly not at the expense of disregarding outstanding domestic accomplishments.

What we were fortunate to witness last night was a climax worthy of any champion team.  How many European Champions League Finals, Superbowls, World Cup Finals, world heavyweight title fights, FA Cup Finals etc., that demanded performances as great?  Our champions played with passion (to win again), reslience (the come back), commitment (what a goal line stand) and flair (those tries).  Like Barcelona, Manchester United and San Francisco 49ers our champions came to entertain.  We should be proud of that and of what Leeds’ success means to us as a sport.  A team built on the backbone of homegrown talent which should serve as a positive reminder to everybody in Super League, especially Saints fans.  In a great match the defeated can often be overlooked but I doubt this one will because of our interest in their future.  Had Saints lost this sixth Grand Final against a third different team we would probably think more of what they done and like Leeds it is a testament to the character of their players that they were even there.  We must not under appreciate this character on either side because this tetralogy occurred under three different coaches for both teams.  Yep, four Grand Finals and six different coaches involved.  Let that add to the esteem of both teams and let us not forget it when the champions roll into town because these men deserve our respect.  They are heroes, not villains.

Saints held firm against Wigan’s strong start and Leeds triumphed in the finest play off games we’ve seen.  A turn up for the books sure.  An undermining of the competition?  No.  It was rugby league of the highest order and we demand more in 2012 (if we get the chance).  During their Grand Final battles only the last one lived up to its billing.  So what’s different now?  Champion spirit.  In beating the top two we might be looking at the first Grand Final where both teams have had to excel the week before the Grand Final.  Normally at least one of the teams have been heavily favoured to get through without having to hit 100%.  Last Friday they had to fly and did.  This is why we have hope for this game.  Great form, little expectation and hopefully the freedom to express themselves as champions so often do, with victory.

Before previewing the game I’d like to thank you for taking the time to read the blog.  Some weeks it is a lot easier to write than others so please don’t be offended if my script on your team isn’t that long in a particular week.  For those of you that may be interested I will continue to blog during the off season on cinema and music.  Thanks again for reading and enjoy the game.

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St Helens v Leeds

Head-to-Head
Leeds 16 St Helens 30
St Helens 42 Leeds 16

Threequarters
An area where both teams are closer than people think.  Common perception is Leeds have more quality here and Ryan Hall is arguably the stand out player on show.  Is there really that big a difference overall though?  Neither team is starting with what it expected its first choice pairings and you can make an argument that Meli and Shenton more than compensate for the gap between the sets of wingers.  Watkins has been named in the 19 but we all know it’s a risk dropping him into the biggest game of the season without a game or two under his belt.  Both full backs have shown the signs of advancing years for more than just this season and whilst Wellens has performed well in the play offs his lack of speed at the back has proven to be a point of attack for Leeds in Grand Finals.  Webb might be an accident waiting to happen when he hasn’t got the ball but with it he still remains a critical point of Leeds’ attack.  His pace means he is far more influential in Leeds game plan than Wellens and that helps to link up the play with a perceived stronger attacking threat outside.  Leeds.

Halves
Sinfield I have huge respect for and if he lifts the crown on Saturday I think he puts himself in the position of being the best loose foward this competition has seen.  We cannot underestimate his importance.  With McGuire alongside him there is more than just experience in the Leeds halves.  Despite the difficult season McGuire’s had, he’s fit at the key point in the season and has shown he’s is more than capable of coming up with some magic.  Saints’ combination is maturing.  Lomax’s agility works well with Gaskell’s more structured approach to the game.  Worryingly for Leeds the Saints half backs had strong showings against Wigan adding credence to Simmons’ early season comments about having to play a constrained game plan due to injuries and inexperience.  Both kids have played so well that the favourites can afford to leave out Leon Pryce for a Grand Final.  Experience and know how against the unexpected.  Even.

Forwards
Plenty to mull over here.  Defensively Saints appear to be the stronger of the two particularly down the middle where they have looked stronger in their past two games than at any point in the season.  I don’t see the same physicality in the Leeds forwards on a consistent basis.  In a one off?  Well JJB (who I picked in my own Super League Dream Team for this year) has been a real driving force for me and he was a key player in the victory at Warrington.  Throw in TMFMISL, Delaney (been great since he moved into the pack) then Leuluai and Leeds should be able to raise their game in this area to compete.  In the win at the HJ Danny Buderus was exceptional both in distribution and putting the defence on the back foot.  In the previous Grand Final contests Leeds’ speed around the PTB has enabled them to make the metres when their forwards are out-matched.  For Leeds Peacock needs to roll back the years because Saints have, in Graham, Roby, Puletua, Clough and LMS, five players who can top the 100m mark and control of that battle will be more important that any other I think.  Saints.

Intangibles
Experience.  Experience has to be first here.  Plenty in both ranks but Leeds have it where it counts, in the play makers.  Leeds midfield trio has the secret.  They know how to win.  Saints might be pinning more of their hopes on the pack but they will need those two halves to ignore the pressure.  Can they?  I’ve seen nothing to suggest they can’t and when your forwards are on top it’s a lot easier to play.  Have Saints really been tested by Wigan or were Wigan out on their feet?  After the Catalans game I thought Wigan were back on it and last week they still pushed Saints even when they had no right to.  Do Leeds have enough left in the tank for one more push?  We won’t know until Saturday night.

Leeds’ form is what has raised expectations for Saturday.  It has been a great run and the unseating of Warrington says this is not the team we knew two months ago.  This is a  team with champion players lifting themselves when they know they needed to.  Can they do it one more time?  Very hard this.  My logic tells me neither Huddersfield nor Warrington have the same oomph going forward as Saints and that asks not only a big question of Leeds but a new one.  If Saints get on a roll, in Gaskell they have a boot which can put the game deep into Leeds territory and that will require Wigan levels of resilience to beat it.  My more intuitive side calls it differently.  It says the experience and leadership in the Leeds team will mean that even when pinned down there will be volunteers scrambling to take the ball up to take the strain.  Leeds have a champion spirit within them.  Will it be enough to combat Saints?  Draw, with a golden point winner…

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Alongside the lack of intensity, attendances have not taken off like they should.  I don’t think you can blame the match-ups created because people started voting with their feet in the first round which begs the question why?  Is it really that difficult for us to answer?  There are two reasons thatI believe have the most significant correlation.  For some reason, and I am at pains to guess why this is, people don’t like to pay to go.  It can’t be because the match-ups aren’t there because everybody was talking about how Catalans were going to give Wigan a great test last week.  You might suggest that, following Wigan’s fans’ reluctance to turn up to Murrayfield when expected to lose, you could rightly presume there wouldn’t be the five figure gate.  More likely however (and this links with the first point about having to pay) is that the game is on SKY.  SKY doesn’t affect attendances too much during the course of the season because of season ticket holders.  You go to the game whether it is on SKY or not.  Floaters do not demonstrate the same behaviour so when it comes to the play offs this difference is magnified.  A local blackout of SKY transmissions of the game is the only way but we know that isn’t going to happen.

If somebody is going to examine this issue I fear simple facts like the live televising and number of teams in the competition will get shifted to the side because they’re too controversial or difficult and issue to deal.  Ignore them and there’s no point in going further because they are bigger structural issues than even the format of the play offs itself.  If we changed to a top six the issues of attendance will still be there, as might concerns of intensity (I’m less inclined to give that thought credibility when under a 14-team, top eight system that can’t support 14 teams no matter what the play off numbers are).  We need to concentrate on these big reasons why people aren’t attending rather than looking for something to blame.  We are only lying to ourselves when we do so e.g. a point raised by a fan in LE about short notice of fixtures impacting the attendance, which I’m sure it does but not to the extent of knocking 8,000 off a Saints-Wigan derby.

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Warrington v Leeds
Now is the time to pause and congratulate Leeds on reaching the preliminary finals.  Only six weeks ago we’d all written them off yet they’re here now talking about no Wembley hangover and feeling fresh.  Freshness maybe, with a few key players having missed significant parts of the season.  Still now I have this conversation going on in my head with one part saying “It’s form, it’s returning players, it’s experience” whilst the other chirps, “Against nobody and they still lack rest.”  I’m sure you’re sharing similar thoughts.  It’s why you and me are different.  Can Leeds be different and pull this off?  To do so will require another of last week’s Zak attacks or perhaps more accurately a strong overall defensive display.  Hull and Huddersfield have looked further away from the summit than their positions suggested.  Leeds are about to find out how many more rungs there are up the misty mountain of Super League.  When my romantic nature gets the better of me I catch glimpses of Leeds’ defence being Testudo like.  Click my heels and I’m drawn back to Kansas where a colour drained palette reminds me of the clarity of memory.  Warrington have found it relatively easy to get over Leeds try line this year so you know they will score.  The question is are Leeds going to be able to hold out enough to keep in the game because close going into the final twenty is up for grabs.  Leeds can be physical enough to match Warrington.  Again though it’s ‘can’ and not are.  I suppose what we are all saying is that Leeds can win this if they play well even if Warrington play well, but, based on assessing the season as a whole that probability isn’t high enough for us to commit.  Warrington.

St Helens v Wigan
Our one true game of sporting contest in the play offs returns to no doubt become a blow out and why couldn’t this go either way?  Last week I said the time to assess Wigan’s energy for the quest was on Monday.  Right after the game I could assess.  Wigan still have enough in the tank for more.  Will the extra game be as beneficial as Madge says it is or is he simply putting the suggestion in the mind of his players to keep them fresh from other subconsciously received signals?  He believes it so the players will believe it.  It matters not what we think.  What do we expect from this?  Seriously.  Warrington-Leeds we imagine to be an open and eye-catching affair, drenched in sun, with cocktails, sunglasses and maybe a few more knocks ons.  Dream of Saints-Wigan and it’s likely to be a brutal tank battle, somewhere on the Russian front, winter winds phantoming over a graveyard of heaped bodies, with the odd chicken wing sticking out.  For that has been the way of most minutes between them.  Wigan know the need for a good start is important to eradicate concerns over vigour.  A good start to me is avoiding being behind in this instance because Wigan have shown an ability to hang in with Saints even when being dominated.  This is a lot tougher to call than people think.  Champions respond like they did last Sunday.  Catalans looked tired yes, because Wigan ran them off their feet.  Stepping up to the top is always much harder than you think it is.  For either of these teams to make the Grand Final now would be a great success.  Saints were written off a while ago and a few gamblers flippantly did the same with Wigan.  If Wigan are drained this will go the same as before but my own eyes saw them lift again last week so my thoughts are back to where they were.  Wigan.

That’s a sensible version and it also helps to keep the top two apart unless they lose so if you are a top two team and you win all your games you would only face the other team in the final.  Under the top five system you have that one game where the top two face off in their first play off game (teams who finish second should not have to go to the league leaders for their first play off match, it doesn’t make sense) and the winner goes straight through but I think you should have to win more than one game to get to a Grand Final i.e. have two proper semi-finals so that one team doesn’t get a week off advantage over the other because we want our teams to be facing off in a context that isn’t undermined by structural issues like Team X had last weekend to rest and recuperate whilst Team Y didn’t.

I also like the Aussie system because it rewards you for finishing higher in the table.  We have to get rid of those 1v4 and 2v3 games as an opening round because they undermine the play off system by throwing huge games like those into the opening round when instead we should be building towards the pinnacle.  Currently the seeding system isn’t working properly that’s all.  It just needs shuffling to something more akin to a real battle for supremacy.

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Before organised sport if you wanted to be the champion you had to seek out the best and beat them.  Every single round of Super League, every contest is a straight head-to-head test and what more fitting a way to be crowned champion than to have done it by beating the best.  Champions shouldn’t be selected on the basis of who has managed to win the higher percentage of victories.  They should be selected on who is able to climb the highest to perform because that’s what a champion performance is made of.

Champions are assessed not on how many they win it’s how they perform.  How they respond to adversity and the challenge of beating the best.You earn the champions tag through performance not consistency.  Consistency helps to put you in a position but when you go to war, when you go to battle it’s out on the field it’s decided mano-a-mano.  You shouldn’t learn that you’ve become champion because Tony Smith’s men have lost at a battle in Hull which means you win the title.  You should defeat them yourself.

You rise to the top and you stay there until somebody comes along and knocks you off your perch.  You only lose that spot when somebody beats you in the arena and not by suffering a depleted squad in the first ten games of the year.  To be a champion team you need to be special and not just lose less games than the team below you.  After all why wouldn’t you want your sports most important game of the season to be the last one?

The greatest moments in sport are created when the chips are down.  It’s when titans rise to the top.  It’s how we assess individual performance i.e. the ability to perform at the highest level and to the highest standard when it means the most.  When people talk of Wally Lewis, Darren Lockyer, Andrew Johns etc. they talk of them as champions because they have done it when it mattered and not because they managed to rattle up a six try haul vs Goldcoast Titans.  If we constantly assess our players’ legacies against their performance in games that matter why shouldn’t we do that with our teams also because we do.  Sean Long is considered a modern day Saints great.  Why?  Because he was a big game player.  Champions are made in the arena not on a league ladder.

This week we are presented with two closely matched games.

Huddersfield v Leeds
No real surprises last week for either of these two.  Maybe the size of Huddersfield’s defeat was an eye-opener but knowing they had another shot this week I can understand why they’d switch off after Wire’s hot start.  Leeds found it predictably easy and certainly go into this with the better form.  Can Huddersfield find something from somewhere because at the moment I cannot find a way into this game for them.  There is some hype hovering around Leeds and I’m keener to look at the run of weak opponents they’ve had than the results.  One of those opponents was the Giants in that final round.  Had Huddersfield slacked off?  The home fans are hoping they did.  The roll is with Leeds currently and though I can’t see them going all the way who knows where another win and a great start in the semi-final will lead.  Leeds.

Wigan v Catalans
Wigan’s defeat was not as catastrophic as Huddersfield’s.  It was a difficult loss to take near the end of a successful season.  Of greater concern was the look of fatigue.  Previously, in matches against Saints, energy levels remained high even in adversity and have been critical to securing two of the three wins Wigan had.  Will they have enough in the tank to hold off Catalans?  Rovers were nothing last week so they won’t have used up too much and should be fresh to face a team they’ve done the double over.  It takes a lot for me to back against the champions at home.  With the imposed media ban there’s a train of thought about this being a motivating tactic which might just work against Catalans.  Will it work next again next week?  And then the next?  Madge needs to squeeze every last drop out to get past here seems to be the thought and think Wigan have got more than that in them.  How much more we can guess again on Monday if we need to.  Wigan.

Super League XIV stat comparisons:

References to games won are based upon Super League matches only unless stated otherwise;

******GAME OF THE ROUND******

Catalans Dragons v Hull KR
Despite only beating top eight opposition five times, Hull KR are unbeaten in their last two games against top eight opposition, Saints and Catalans. We can say those final two wins might have been influenced by the security the opposition had in the play off race but we should not ignore them. They must have given the formerly dispirited and descending Rovers a reminder that this isn’t over yet. Somebody has to come from outside the top three over the next decade to win the Grand Final. Will it start this year with Rovers? As great as it would be to see a team ride the waves like that Rover don’t have it. Too conservative a game plan for me. They do have enough to win a couple and progress, possibly even getting to the semis, however, of the two I see Catalans as being more likely to make a mark. Not only do Catalans have a better record against the top four teams than Saints, they have also beaten each of the top three (and two of them were as visitors at Warrington and Wigan in rounds 8 and 9). This is the only match of the four where I can’t see a clear winner because of that late Rovers surge. In reality that rush of form is probably a bit glossy and shouldn’t be too much for the Dragons to handle. Keep it close for sixty minutes and it’s up for grabs. Catalans.

Warrington v Huddersfield
Warrington haven’t lost since round 17 and similarly haven’t lost against a top eight team since being defeated at home to Hull in round 12. Of the top four, only Huddersfield have beaten Warrington in the league and they’ve done it twice although neither win was at the HJ. However Huddersfield are 1-4 in their last five against play off opposition and have lost their last three against the teams above them. The second half of the season has been a struggle for the Giants with Brough’s absence hitting them harder than any other injury in the competition and now with a loss to Leeds they have been in the same scenario as Saints i.e. able to rest players at the expense of in-game continuity. Can Brown get away with that against a Warrington team which has been both successful and entertaining? Huddersfield have tried to be more expansive themselves but with a pack that is better without the ball than with it the backs, who have still done well, haven’t had the space Warrington have had. I’m relying on my perception here but my memory recalls too often seeing Huddersfield pushing the pass wide against a defence which is set against width because of the lack of real pressure down the middle. I’d love to see what B&B could do with a couple of big running forwards in that pack. Warrington.

Wigan v St Helens
In four clashes this season (including the cup semi-final) Saints have won none. Of the top four Saints have the weakest record against play off and top four opposition and have yet to better the top two this year. Saints sole victory against a top four team remains the late season win over a Giants team who had lost four consecutive road games prior to that game. None of these facts bear well for Saints who will be hopeful that the rest period has allowed key personnel to be fit for the run-in. In the four games between them Wigan have dominated one of the games they one, controlled sixty minutes of the draw and had to dig deep in the other two to fend off Saints momentum. That last point is quite prescient because Wigan have been able to absorb the best Saints have before dancing over the try line to win. Playing well and not winning can provide encouragement but when it’s happened more than once it becomes a concern and the way your coach prepares the team mentally for the game becomes more important. Both Maguire and Tony Smith have demonstrated they can do this and if Saints are to progress to another Grand Final Simmons will have to do it for the first time this year. Maguire overcame Warrington in the cup and Smith bounced back by bustling past a seemingly unstoppable Wigan in the minor premiership decider. Saints need their coach to come through at least once to reach Old Trafford and as much as it could be more likely this week I do not forsee that. Wigan.

Leeds v Hull
Leeds only win against top four opposition was at Huddersfield in the final round of the regular season. Unsurprisingly Hull have the weakest record against play off teams, managing just four wins, and have been beaten with room to spare by Leeds on three occasions (one a cup tie). That’s an inability to go further if you ask me. Despite playing in every round of the cup Leeds have avoided folding, sneaking in ahead of Catalans and getting a home draw against a Hull team which saw its run of fifty point hauls come to an end last Friday. There was a real gulf in class against Warrington and that’s an indicator of just how difficult it is to make the Grand Final now that the top two are focusing in on the title. The stats make interesting reading for Hull. They are the second least penalised team in the comp, rank second in offloads, third in tackle busts, fourth in clean breaks and fifth in points conceded. They should be higher but when you look down the fixture list though Hull have blown away a few of the lower placed teams whilst on their travels (scoring fifty points three times) and I think they must be padding those stats out. Neither Leeds nor Hull have threatened the top four and I can’t say I fancy Hull to go any further. Leeds have their number and should be able to get something from this match to inspire them in their trip to a losing top four team where, if Kevin Sinfield fires, anything can happen. Leeds.

Finally, Agar to Wakefield and Kear to Batley? I would love to know what recruitment processes some of our Super League teams have. Was Agar (and this isn’t a campaign against him because every man deserves to make a living) really the best applicant out there? The Rooney rule is getting a mention now in football but it truly is amazing that in this day and age I can call into question recruitment processes in sport. Usually I find that sports teams hover closer to the cutting edge of performance management (tremendous attention given to individual welfare, motivation, wellbeing and psychology) so it is incredible that clubs do not look to apply the same rigour when it comes to actually bringing in those people they expect to propel them further. With players it’s a lot easier to see their impact and character but with coaches/managers? If I’m entrusting the responsibility for performances on the field to one man I want to ensure that I was bringing in the best person available. By not throwing your net wide you restrict your choice and why would you do that? The greater your choice the more likely you are to be successful and its something which goes ignored when you rely on a managerial merry-go-round.

******GAME OF THE ROUND******

Hull KR v Castleford
I’m sad to say Castleford fans that it looks like we’re heading for a damp squib.  Rovers have managed to lift their performances just in time to sneak into the play offs and they might even take sixth.  Take sixth and travel to Leeds?  I’d take that if I was a Rovers fan.  It would be a brilliant end to a written off season.  Conversely, to not make the play offs after their best season in years, would be awful for Castleford.  Of the two Rovers could go to fifth or sixth and win because of the momentum they would have.  If Castleford win I can see it being another one of those hauling-a-hod-up-a-hill type efforts which depletes their constitution even further.  Perhaps Rangi can pull one more rabbit out of the hat.  Rovers.

Hull v Warrington
It will come as no surprise for you to learn that Warrington have made the most offloads in this year’s competition.  Did you know Hull were number two?  Have we been too harsh on Agar?  I don’t think so.  Hull have, at best, stagnated for two years and a change in direction is overdue if you believe it was the wrong appointment in the first place.  You should see some progression during that time and we haven’t.  For a moment this year it looked like there was some progression, however Hull haven’t been able to capitalise on whatever form they have generated and they now face a Wire team which should be bursting with the right mental ingredients.  That burst will be enough because Hull don’t have enough which may not be a bad thing for the home fans because although they may prefer a trip down the M62 next week they might have a better chance in France.  Warrington.

Wakefield v Bradford
Two forgettable campaigns.  Wakefield might have more to remember after the points deductions and their continued stay in Super League but with John Kear’s imminent departure there is perhaps even more concern going into next year.  Who will replace him?  Can you replace him?  Are Wakefield going to go for an unproven superstar or look towards a steady professional with the knowledge and skill to let them tread water for another three years?  I’m sure there’ll be no shortage of applications from the lower leagues although nobody has really shown enough to suggest they’d be better than a Noble or Justinho.  As for Bradford, well take it as a necessary year of foundation.  The fans have come back and with that faith the team can grow again into a potential play off team.  Wakefield.

Wigan v Crusaders
It looked like a few beers had been sunk by Wigan after their cup win and as a gesture of goodwill it’s £3 to get in and see the Crusaders final ever game.  Unfortunately there’s also an outside chance of a minor premiership being awarded so you might want to stay at home.  Wigan.

Harlequins RL v St Helens
I know what you’re thinking, it’s like a British rugby league death row.  Wakefield, Crusaders and now Harlequins RL.  Finally this sentence will come to an end and that’s a relief for us expansionists.  With some new overseas stars coming in Super League XVII has already exceeded this year’s superlative attempt at Halifax’s record losing streak and you know what?  Saints were pretty mediocre against an energetic Salford so if Harlequins RL can keep themselves in the game for at least the first forty minutes they might nip it.  Saints.

Huddersfield v Leeds
Here’s an interesting one.  Huddersfield are safe in fourth and Leeds will probably have to win to keep ahead of Catalans.  Does anybody think Huddersfield will slack off?  I don’t know and I’m wondering why I see Saints accommodating for the play offs yet don’t envision Huddersfield have the same mind set.  What is it that’s the difference?  Is it Huddersfield’s greater need to establish rhythm and form?  Since their back-to-back wins over Warrington and Leeds it’s been an ongoing struggle to harness consistency.  Like most teams over the years who’ve sat just below first and second, your team tends to find its home games are relatively comfortable ones where you don’t play well unless it’s against a big name.  This is usually combined with disjointed surprise defeats on the road.  I’m sure Leeds fans can recognise this pattern.  If Huddersfield want to get those BPMs going for Old Trafford it can start here.  Huddersfield.

Salford v Catalans Dragons
Thanks to a poorer points record Catalans head into this match needing to win to have a chance of snatching fifth and Salford will continue to try and build on the past months’ exertions.  There was a sense of improvement from Salford against Saints although I don’t think you can assess much yet until the squad has had an off season together.  Catalans should come out a bit stronger and more driven than Saints and that should be enough to pip the home team who I expect will made a real game of this.  Catalans.

Onto the final two rounds and this week has a play off feel to it.  We will definitely have at least one critical game next weekend after we go through a couple of real meat feasts first.

******GAME OF THE ROUND******

Castleford v Hull
I know there’s a bigger game than this but that one is for jostling.  Saturday night’s SKY spectacular is one.  It is not do or die for either but a win will secure a play off spot.  What makes this game more important is that both face a tough final game with Hull welcoming Warrington.  If Warrington beat Wigan, Hull will be facing a team going full tilt for top.  Even if Warrington lose they should still be pushing for a result in the hope of Crusaders pulling off the shock of the season at Wigan.  Castleford travel to the third team looking for a lower rung play off spot, Rovers.  Castleford’s points difference is too poor for them to hold onto their current position from both Hull teams.  Effectively this becomes a bigger game for Castleford because I can see a loss here losing to a loss at Rovers.  These past three weeks have given Castleford time to regroup which is something they needed to do.  They looked tired around the semi-final but responded with that thrilling win at Wakefield.  Over the course of the season Castleford have looked better and more competitive against the big teams than Hull have even if Hull have had some great results against higher placed teams.  I mean I am looking at performance and Castleford’s creativity inspires me more than Hull’s power.  Castleford.

Leeds v Wakefield
More than admirable last week from Leeds.  It wasn’t quite enough and nobody likes to lose a match on the back of one or two unfavourable decisions.  Still if you benefit from those decisions in games it’s only right that occasionally you feel the full brutality of it too.  There isn’t much on the plate for either of these two this week and Wakefield will probably be looking for where there is some mental fall out in the Leeds ranks to exploit.  The beaten finalists need a win here to keep ahead of Castleford and Hull (one of those teams will likely go ahead of Leeds if Wakefield win) especially with a trip to the Giants next week.  It’s trickier than it looks.  Leeds undoubtedly have the quality to see this one out and I’ll go for either one of those 30 minute blow outs or a scrappy two points in front of a semi-disinterested crowd.  Leeds.

St Helens v Salford
Saints need a point to more or less secure third and Salford are  in it for the good times looking ahead to next season.  When the new coach came in we talked about how they’ll be looking to string together a good run of results to build up confidence for next season and it sounds like there’s been improvements already.  No surprise I guess with everybody wanting to prove their worth with the new guy.  Saints will have welcomed the cup final break and although it should be more spiky than the normal Salford visits to Saints it has to be a home win.  Saints.

Catalans Dragons v Hull KR
By the time my GOTR kicks off these two will already be underway.  By beating Saints, Rovers have helped themselves to a great position sitting on the shoulder of Cas and Hull as we move into the home straight.  Theoretically Rovers may well be able to lose here and still be no worse off because Hull are only a point ahead and Castleford have that stinking negative points difference.  If Rovers do lose and there is a draw at The Jungle they will go out (Hull’s positive points difference is too much to overcome) and although that scenario is the least likely Justinho cannot look to results elsewhere to decide his team’s fate.  Unfortunately I can’t see Rovers coming away with the two points.  Catalans are relatively settled with an eye on the play offs and Rovers only just managed to put away a weakened Saints team last time out.  Don’t get me wrong that was still a great effort just not enough for me to say Rovers are playing to the level they’re capable of.  Catalans.

Warrington v Wigan
Despite not getting my GOTR choice this is still one of those colossal contests and it’s on Sunday instead of Friday night so I can watch it live.  We know the importance of this game to each team especially Warrington who will want this a touch more than Wigan because of the bare trophy cabinet (yes they’ve finally built one, admittedly it’s the junior version but it’s a start).  During the season I’ve had recourse to single our Warrington and Leeds’ having the offloading game that causes Wigan problems and it will be needed on Sunday because Wigan are not about to give up now that Wembley is out of the way.  Both team and players will want to make it a double.  Victory for either team is likely to keep them clear of Saints and whilst both teams would be confident going into battle against them neither will want to run the risk.  Can Warrington get the same result running down Joel Tomkins centre channel as they did last time?  Will there defence be consistent enough to stop the Wigan breakaways?  Is there enough tempo in Warrington’s game to stifle Wigan’s explosive starts?  This is a bigger game than its context.  For me, Warrington need the win to prove to the rest of the competition that they are the favourites now.  It is not enough for Warrington to finish second even if I can see they making the Grand Final.  For me they need to show us they’re back to where they where earlier in the season and that they haven’t slipped on one of those ladder rungs.  It’s going to be tough, hopefully physical and with plenty of biff.  I believe Wigan have the defensive quality to keep Warrington out and just enough attacking magic, namely Sam Tomkins, to rattle up the points when Wire’s concentration dips, however purely because it’s at home I’m going for Wire.  Warrington.

Bradford v Crusaders
Less meaningless than a dead rubber.

Huddersfield v Harlequins RL
At last!  Victory for our London siblings.  I’m hoping that will mean a slightly more competitive match for the spectators on Sunday.  Of course, we all know because it was a win via Wembleyitis and there will be no such padding in this one.  Huddersfield now want to get a couple of good games under their belt before the play offs and may want to ensure fourth spot.  Martyn Sadler raised the point about teams who finish third and fourth having to go to the top two, sometimes suffering the week after by going two and out in the play offs (think Warrington did it last year).  I’m pretty sure Huddersfield will not want to go to either of the top two so perhaps they won’t be throwing themselves around for every minute.  It’ll still be hard to lose this game even if you’re playing poorly as I can’t see Harlequins RL turning it on again.  Huddersfield.

Onto this week and the fixtures are fading out a bit which, if it was planned, makes the competition less interesting but the play offs more interesting as familiarity is avoided by many.

******GAME OF THE ROUND******

Catalans Dragons v Warrington
This is the game of the round even if Catalans climb has dissipated after losing at Hull.  Unless Saints fold dramatically third is out of range which means fourth is available if Catalans can keep up their home form.  Facing a Warrington side who are hunting for first this should produce one of those unseen epics unless Catalans aren’t too worried about finishing fifth.  Should Catalans be worried about not making the top four?  They would have a home tie in the first round before starting to make one of those difficult trips to a top four team.  You’d still have to beat a top four team at least once if you finish third or fourth so I can see how they could be overrun by a fired up Warrington side.  Tony Smith would like his side to build up momentum and a win here should give them enough oomph to make that final round battle against Wigan mean something.  Warrington.

Wigan v Bradford
It is knockout footie for Bradford and if you really are going to go on a late streak for the play offs why not throw in a tough game like this one?  No point in deceiving us all by rolling over a couple of bums, let’s see what you’re like against the champions when they’ve got one eye on next week.  Will that one eye play its part?  It looked like it might last week until Wigan hit a rhythm and danced the night away.  No matter how professional Wigan are, they can glimpse the final and it will be present in players’ minds.  Wigan though will probably be out of sight by the time the final quarter kicks in thereby avoiding any disruption.

Salford v Huddersfield
Like Wakefield’s new ground, progress with Salford might take a bit longer than most.  It was Wigan they were drowned by but I anticipated at least an attempt to keep them under fifty points.  For the penultimate home contest it’s the third placed chasing Giants who should have more than enough to cross the line this week after struggling last week.  There were a few discussions on the forums about the inability of Huddersfield to create anything at Saints and I think that’s a bit unfair, mainly because where the team is lacking is with some real metre making up front.  I’m not talking about graft and just doing hit ups, I mean penetration.  A player or two who will carry defenders with him for extra yards and help put the defence on the back front.  Against Saints it was a bit too often that I saw Brough and Brown trying to make things happen against a set defence which hadn’t been jolted out of its pattern by bullocking runs.  Can’t see there being too many problems with that this week.  Huddersfield.

Harlequins RL v Leeds
Difficult draw for Leeds fans.  Two trips to London in a week?  Big plus though is this one is against Harlequins RL who have been Harlequinized pretty regularly this year.  A win and a draw since that round five win at Saints with Huddersfield (A) after the cup final and Saints (H) for the closing of the regular season.  It has been a year to forget for all who harbour any sort of goodwill towards our southern lambs.  I am hoping for some more signings and just maybe, one of them will be a decent prop forward who can stay free from injury all next year.  For this game there is probably a greater chance of Leeds’ minds drifting than there is Wigan’s, however that is counterbalanced by the fact this is Harlequins RL.  Leeds.

Wakefield v Castleford
Over the past couple of years this match has found its way into the GOTR slot.  Now it’s relegated to being a complaint about the poor quality of games lined up for this week’s viewing public.  Wakefield have nothing to play for and Castleford need to protect their spot or risk losing it with both Hull teams within a game’s range (both Hull teams have far superior points difference).  I don’t really know how to go with this.  Wakefield might have been destroyed on a regular basis over the past seven rounds, losing all of those games since that shock win over Huddersfield but I’m almost thinking they might rise to the occasion.  Castleford, I was having a discussion about with a friend who said they’ve gone off the boil.  Now he is right, in that Castleford haven’t been able to maintain that early season form but not many teams could have, however they have continued to knock off the teams they were expected to beat and I have faith that they will not completely tune out of proceedings.  With both Hull teams to play in their final two games, a win is esssential or else a season that promised so much could be ruined by a late surge from either bank of the Humber.    Castleford.

Crusaders v Hull
In the era where the word absolutely is often used incorrectly I want to say last week’s result for Hull was an absolute stonker.  Not only did the home fans witness a great win they also saw their team avoid being leapfrogged by Rovers.  How set are Hull for finishing higher?  Hull should win here and with Rovers having a tough game v Saints they can shift the pressure onto Castleford by following this match with a win next week at The Jungle.  Hull.

Hull KR v St Helens
A wowzer of a second half I thought at Bradford and now a real test.  Saints helped themselves to a strong footing for third by stifling the Giants and increased the gap to three points.  With six more points available a win here would make Saints a very short odds favourite for that spot (the two remaining games are Salford (H) and a trip to London).  I am going to go a bit wild here though.  Rovers need every single point if they are to experience the race for Old Trafford first hand and there were signs in last week’s game that the team have caught sight of that fact as well.  Crazy shout after Saints have looked more than capable of handling steady football when they’ve faced it but something in me is also willing those final two Castleford games to mean something to all involved.  Rovers on the back of a hunch.

Also this week saw the retirement of Sean Long, one of the competition’s more provocative characters.  Long cemented himself in league history by sealing an unprecedented three Lance Todd awards and will go down as a club legend for Saints.  He formed the backbone of a Saints half back combination that has remained exclusively all-British since the inception of Super League.  An unpredictable player in his youth who could create panic with his off the cuff runs, Long traded that explosiveness for a more controlling game during the Ian Millward years and despite possessing neither a great kicking game (at its best it was above competent) nor creative passing game he was a player who often delivered for his team when it mattered.  Has there been a better big game player in Super League?  I don’t think there has yet, and I know who my money is on for being the next one.

******GAME OF THE ROUND******

St Helens v Huddersfield
Third against fourth with fifth just a win from catching or overtaking the defeated.  After this match Saints travel to Rovers, host Salford and then head down to London.  Huddersfield go to Salford, welcome Harlequins RL and then go over to Leeds to what is likely to be a critical jockeying for position game in the final round.  Similarly, Catalans run-in features a home game with Warrington next week and two perfectly winnable games.  Excluding this week’s games, If we say Saints are going to get a full house (no guarantees in the trip to Rovers though) that will give them 37pts.  The Giants should have at least 34pts but I’ll go for 36pts as I can see Leeds having post Cup Final blues/bliss and Catalans (I can’t give them two points v Wire at the moment) will have 33pts.  All that means the battle for third could really hang on this game.  Whoever wins will certainly put themselves in control and if Saints win it gives them a touch of space and this game is as tight and unpredictable as key games can be.  Brough’s return should ensure Huddersfield don’t evaporate in the final weeks and his presence will be vital on Friday.  For me the momentum is there for Huddersfield and what I mean by that is the semi-final loss must be out of Saints’ system both mentally and physically.  Any remnants from last Saturday has to be sniffed out by the Giants and exploited.  Huddersfield need to not only start well they need to start well defensively and plant a physical marker in the match to tell Saints this isn’t a Giants side stuttering for form.  If Huddersfield can bring that hard defence to the game they can tap into any mental deflation from last week in the Saints ranks.  It does need to be as strong a start as that because Saints played well last week and would have beaten any other Super League team with that kind of intensity.  Should Saints find that level of performance again they will be very hard to stop.  Making the big hits and making those niggle carrying Saints players feel those hits is a game changer here.  It needs to be hard, physical and clean to win.  This should be a belter with the appropriate level of bell ringers and bodies strewn across the battlefield.  Saints.

Crusaders v Harlequins RL
So the Crusaders are giving their all now?  Well it’s not good enough I’m afraid and it’s about ten rounds too late.

Hull v Catalans Dragons
It’s going to be close for Hull in these final weeks.  Catalans are in town which presents a possible loss with at least one of the teams chasing their spot likely to make up two of the three points required to draw level if that happens.  Potentially great news this week for Hull was dampened by a club statement deny it and I wonder how that will play out on Friday.  Catalans have the defence and strength to soak up Hull’s forwards and I think they have too much in the armoury to lie down here even if I can’t fully write the home team off in this one.  If Hull can win here they will have 23 points and will probably only require a win from their final three games to secure that final play off spot.  Lose and it puts a bit of pressure on those matches, particularly the game at Castleford because I don’t think Hull would want to be going to Warrington in the final round needing a win.  Does that mean we’ll be seeing a big effort from the home team?  I would think so and when you consider that it makes this the other match to be at this weekend.  Catalans.

Leeds v Castleford
Just pure heartbreak for Matterson and the fans.  His team had it there for the taking on Sunday.  It was a great effort and the heavy legs were too much to carry against a Leeds team which looked, bigger, fitter and faster.  Those heavy legs are perhaps an excuse for not really taking the game to Leeds because that’s where Cas lost it I feel.  That second half felt like the Tigers were looking merely to play out the clock which is always a big gamble in this game.  Credit to Leeds, who kept the ball alive throughout and that contributed to the physical exertions their rivals had to undertake.    In fact, Leeds offloaded the ball more times in this match than all three other semi-finalists combined I think and that’s a reflection on their coaching ethos over the past couple of years.  McDermott must take some of the claim for not shutting that down this year even if it’s more a remanant of the Smith/McClennan days (certainly the latter relies on it a lot as a feature with his Kiwi teams and also with his dad’s teams).  Last week took a lot out of Castleford and although there’s a chance of the points if they lift themselves I think there has to be some kind of sag this week which is fine because there’s still breathing space for a week or two below them.  Leeds.

Warrington v Wakefield
The fallout from the licensing decisions continues to motor on as I expect will Warrington and their quest for that top spot which is likely to be decided over the following two rounds.  There can be no complacency on Sunday with two epic contests coming up for Smith’s men a trip to Catalans before the game v Wigan, a week after the Challenge Cup Final.  Warrington are now in must-win mode if they want to get that spot (providing Wigan don’t slip up, which is unlikely with games v Salford and Bradford).  Warrington.

Wigan v Salford
A smash and grab result or a blockbuster show of resistance.  It doesn’t matter which way you look at it, Wigan were as superb as any other champion team that has gone before them.  It was not a dominant display but it was one where the opposition came out and controlled the ball.  In times like that we’ve seen the great teams soak things up then struck like a snake.  Not only was it ruthless it was typical of a side with that champion magic out besting superior power.  There should be no trouble this week against Salford even if a new regime might be out to catch them off guard.  The prize of a first Super League double should concentrate the minds.  Wigan.

Bradford v Hull KR
Two seasons here both would prefer to forget.  The Bulls have never materialised this year and Rovers have looked very much like a team which knows its coach is going and has found the off switch a bit too easily in games where absence of effort can be exposed.  All that talk of recent weeks about the Bulls playing knock out football has never been evident than this week where a win will pull them to within a point of eighth if Hull also lose.  Assuming Bradford can win here and in their final two games (home to Crusaders and at Wakefield) they will reach 25 points which will force Rovers into having to win at least two from their final three (and there’s Saints and Catalans up after this).  Let’s suppose Bradford have a sniff of action and Rovers are distracted by the end of an era and let’s go with a Bulls late run putting some pressure on both Hull teams.  Bradford.

******GAME OF THE ROUND******

Salford v Leeds
Here’s a great chance for new coach Parish to get his first points in the competition and it also presents probably the easiest of his remaining games.  Leeds must have an eye on the semi-final which is exactly what Salford need.  Without the semi-final I still think the home team would have a chance in this game because we all know Leeds have been up and down with plenty of down.  McDermott still goes to The Willows with a strong side and under the old regime I don’t think there would be too many problems.  This time out I expect tighter defence and tonnes of enthusiasm from the home side.  It’s enthusiasm they will need because Salford are playing knockout football and although a loss here would not rule them out unless Hull beat Wigan they’ll have too big a hill to run up.  Salford.

Hull v Wigan
As beautiful as it was to see Brian McDermott put a happy face on it was not such for Hull fans who saw their team blow a winning lead.  Blow a lead it was too.  Hull found Leeds to have a relatively soft centre which allowed easy metre making in that first half.  When more was required following Leeds’ opening second half blitz they had nothing and if Wigan defend like they have been doing then I don’t even see a chance for a winning lead to develop.  At times last week Wigan were explosive, scoring tries out of nothing which is the hallmark of a silverware bound team.  However, this Wigan team is beatable.  With a huge semi-final coming up the home support must be hoping it’s another case of thoughts somewhere else because even a solid Wigan performance should be able to hold and slow down the ploughing Hull props.  Wigan.

Catalans v Harlequins RL
Since the introduction of the magic weekends this has turned into a nice little ding-dong.  Unfortunately for those spivs traveling down to France I don’t see much other than a blood splattered battlefield for them.  Catalans.

Huddersfield v Hull KR
It’s going down to the wire for both of these teams.  Brough’s absence was felt by the Giants, who have fallen dramatically out of the race for the top two and now face a tussle with Saints to get third.  With a trip to Saints after the challenge cup semi-final, Huddersfield are not reliant upon results going their way so even if Kevin Brown’s play making may be missed they have enough in them to surge ahead of Saints at the finish line.  The question is can they get some consistency back?  Before the Wakefield game Huddersfield were almost cruising into the play offs and now they face a Rovers team which has won four Super League games in a row.  Having seen Rovers last week I was right in highlighting last time out that these wins were against the bottom because Rovers were very poor at Saints.  Defensively the team sat back and allowed Saints to not only get over the advantage line but bust through tackles.  It was awful and they looked like a team which has given up.  I hope they don’t because there’s a real neck and neck sprint between them and Hull for that last play off spot which could go down to the final weekend.  Huddersfield.

Warrington v Bradford
Tony Smith’s Warrington can now go full tilt at the Grand Final.  Barring disaster that run should start from either first or second as I can’t picture Saints or Huddersfield overcoming a significant five point gap.  Some of you may it’s just as well because Warrington looked off the pace on Saturday but we shouldn’t take anything away from Wigan who looked like champions at times.  Briers and Morley’s absence left a big hole of leadership in those opening twenty minutes, however Warrington still showed their quality by making a game of it when really they should have been buried.  Smith’s team has resilience in the same way that teams who reach the Grand Final do.  Suggestions of a collapse from here on in are wide of the mark unless more players end up on the treatment table.  Bradford meanwhile are fighting for that eighth spot and there’s six very achievable points after this to look at.  Will it be enough?  If the Bulls can win on Sunday or at Wigan it could be.  Sadly Bulls fans I can’t get past a Warrington bounce back and three points to make up over five games is a lot harder than it sounds.  Warrington.

Castleford v St Helens
Leon Pryce’s return from injury has given Saints a bit of a spring in their step with the ball recently.  When youngsters come in and do a good job sometimes it’s easy to forget the quality a player like Pryce can bring to a side.  He should feature on Sunday in what would have been a game of the round had it not been for next week’s matches.  Both teams will be resting a couple of players and whilst that might neuter the quality I still expect this to be a close game.  Castleford have shown they can still give a team a game when missing regulars and they mustn’t switch off after the semi because they can still finish higher than Leeds.  Is this Castleford’s first semi since the Steele Retchless one?  A couple of weeks ago I would have plumped for the Tigers to win at home.  Now I get this feeling that they may be more susceptible to those cup final dreams than a Saints team which has faced this problem every season for the past eleven years.  Saints.

******THE BEN FOLDS FIVE FIXTURE OF THE ROUND******

Wakefield v Crusaders
Wherever I start on this game I end up discussing what’s happened this week.  The messageboards have been full of debate about this and it is a question which requires more detailed argument that I can offer in this blog.  I was more than disappointed when I heard Crusaders were moving away from south Wales because I saw a future for the team there.  Up to Wrexham and I wasn’t sure.  What is more disappointing now, more than the failure of the franchise, is what’s been happening behind the scenes financially.  It is not the same as Harlequins RL, who I will defend their franchise to the end, but it is still a setback to the challenge of growing our sport in Wales.  As for Wakefield I am delighted they got the nod.  There are issues that need addressing with the club but of all the teams which have gone through the promotion and relegation scenarios, Wakefield have been perhaps the most sensational and I always found it hard to ignore the way they have punched above their weight, except when playing host to Leeds.  Wakefield.