XIII Oceans

So it’s overpriced accommodation and rail tickets time for some, TV dreamland for others and dreamy thoughts of sunkissed beaches and INXS for former Man Of Steel contenders as the big games surface for a magical weekend in one of the least accessible cities in Britain, Cardiff.

(+8 ) Huddersfield v Warrington
Here’s a thriller for you to start your Millennium Magic weekend, arguably the two teams that are in the poorest form to open up a festival of rugby league.  Hopefully most of the first-time attendees will still be in the bar so they’re not put off our great sport by what is likely to be a procession of incomplete sets, lazy tackles and Lee Briers.  Of course only part of that is true because it is an intriguing head-to-head between two increasingly desperate teams.  I expect this to be a highly committed match, one that both will view as well within their grasp and it’ll be interesting to see if it becomes two teams throwing everything at each other or two trying not to lose the game.  In a shoot out you have to fancy Warrington and with the way that Huddersfield are playing I can’t see them being able to convert chances that come their way should this descend into a calamity-clash.  This brings everything back to those questions of ball control and field position so when you look at that you see that, of the two, Warrington have demonstrated they can do that, it’s an issue of form with them.  Huddersfield haven’t done that and haven’t had any consistency this year and they need it and need it quickly.  Warrington by 8.

(+8 ) Castleford v Wakefield
Castleford would prefer this to be at home obviously, but playing on a neutral ground is significantly better for them than going to Wakefield.  Sadly for Cas, Wakefield are on a mini-roll and although they were very lucky to come away with the win on Saturday they did more than plug away at Harlequins RL lead, forcing the visitors into submitting to their swell.  You expect that Castleford will come out and give the game some tempo, like Harlequins RL did,  whereas Wakefield will seek to overpower their opponents over the course of the eighty with their composure and willingness to let Castleford’s attacking game trip itself up.  How will the game shape up?  It’s difficult for me to see this Wakefield side allow themselves to let the Tigers get a hold on the game however I can see the derby rivalry keeping the game close until the Wildcats halves get a hold of the game.  Wakefield by 6.

(+6) Bradford v Leeds
The Bulls continue to get results that keep them up amongst the top two hunt whilst Leeds survive the worst casualty list since Rambo to stay at the top.  Reviewing form for this game doesn’t usually work, we’ve found that one team is usually in the ascendancy with Leeds being the boss now.  Can the Bulls overcome the vogue?  They will be happy with the physical confrontation in the forwards fearing more the strike capabilities and ball in hand play of the Rhinos.  I would love to see the kind of running, hitting and drama that these two can produce against each other but you look at the Bulls results and the thrills are limited so it’s probably wishful thinking to hope for a game as great as last year’s.  Like the men of Bastogne, Leeds heroics separates them from the pack and they remain titans amongst men, albeit heavily injured titans, leading this competition from the front.  In the face of such battle hardened walking wounded we can only expect the Bulls to wilt, dropping down on their knees to worship in front of these grandiose icons.  Leeds by 12.

Catalans v Harlequins RL (+2)
My game of the weekend and one that I’m disappointed that those not going to Cardiff won’t be able to watch live.  Catalans unbeaten run continues whereas Harlequins RL managed to put a great eighty minutes in recently, unfortunately spread out across two matches.  I’m finding it difficult though to see this Dragons run trundling along according to form and that middle eighty for Harlequins RL sets up what I think will be a bit of an ambush, inspiring the Spivs to an unlikely if not unsurprising win.  Some of the rugby that has been on show in those two halves was as good as you will have seen all season so it must be disappointing for them to have not capitalised on that last week.  Catalans are a side that haven’t been watched often by many so they remain a mystery to most even if the highlight reels show imagination in attack.  In thinking about a lot of these fixtures my thoughts turn more towards the mindset of teams going into the game and whilst Potter will have Catalans focussed, McDermott will have a lot more to call upon as motivation in this match from recent performances and the Easter game.  Harlequins RL by 8.

Hull v Hull KR (+4)
Biff!  Bash!  Bosh!  All on the menu on Sunday afternoon as Lee Radford leads his men against Paul Cooke, only this time it’s personal.  No doubt Gail Tylesley’s chin-a-like, Cooke, will be aiming to dictate things from behind his pack to avoid any confrontations with the Hull skipper, who is suitably enthusiastic about this match-up.  I don’t think there’s been an on screen match up that’s promised more fireworks since “What’s Love Got To Do With It?” and we could be in for a humdinger.  Rovers appear to have the upper hand in meetings between the two and with just two points between them they’re teams fighting for the same position and anticipated season.  On Good Friday Rovers started off the better side, Hull came back strong before the home side sealed the win by a point.  During the second half I felt that Hull were significantly better than Rovers were in the first half and really should have been able to use their momentum to claim the victory, that they didn’t owes more to homefield advantage than any shortcomings on the day.  Of course it’s easy to say the neutral venue shifts the balance in Hull’s favour though it’s more than that.  These appear to be teams that are crawling in opposite directions with no clear impetus for either side but Hull appear to breathing with a bit more gusto which I think is just enough to bring them home.  Hull by 2.

Saints v Wigoon (+8 )
Sunday night’s football headliner has some potential in it.  Potential, is what it will probably stay.  Neither side gives me hope that this will be a 100% full frontal assault at the moment despite being level on points.  However this should be a considerably closer game than Good Friday’s mauling.  Had Gareth Hock been eligible to play in this game that closeness would likely have tipped things in Wigoon’s favour with Saints returning to two front line props but his absence is a big loss for the Warriors.  In spite of having a couple of poor seasons, characterised by poor discipline and ball control, Hock remains the most damaging forward runner that Brian Noble can call upon and there doesn’t appear to be anybody who can step into that role for him.  At the moment you have to discriminate against Wigoon because of their recent form against Saints but it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion and both sides have shown that they can step up and compete even if it’s not been for a sustained run.  If Saints find that last week’s game has emptied their tank or the minor injuries picked up last week resurface there’s every reason to believe that the Warriors can give their success starved fans some internet bragging rights.  Still if they are to do that it is going to require them to play to their best ability defensively, stop the unforced errors, Saints to underperform and for Derren Brown to remove that mental block that remains more than a vestige in their mind.  I’ve got a feeling that this game is going to be closer than people think but it’s unlikely to be a classic with probably too many neutrals supporting the Warriors.  Saints by 4.

Last week’s predictions;

Leeds by 8 (won by 14)
Saints by 4 (won by 8 )
Catalans by 6 (won by 8 )
Wakefield by 4 (won by 4)
Wigoon by 4 (lost by 14)
Hull by 6 (won by 8 )

So a good week last week with five out of six with one full correct prediction and three very close ones, making the running total now 43-31 (58%).

Is it just me or is Danny Orr turning into Michael Stipe?  Onto this week’s previews…

Hull KR v Leeds
Now here’s a chance for a team to make a name for themselves.  After the pushing the champions all the way in Super League XIII’s opening game, Hull KR are faced with living up to that performance and a degree of expectation will be in the air.  Rovers have slid out of view in eighth position, despite lying just one point off third, so the pressure is off them delivering top six results week in week out which their opening form suggested.  Now they find themselves in the mix at the bottom end of the playoffs table with a competitive points difference and forthcoming matches with fellow post season contenders, Harlequins RL and the Giants.   An interesting few weeks for Rovers and they can start it with a win tonight that would be payback for that first round defeat.  Again it’s a tricky game to call, Leeds start as favourites and I expect them to win, however we’re not looking at Leeds with the same awe as we were a few weeks back.  The post-party loss to Castleford has been akin to buckling your wheel with the champs still heading in the right direction but on some hills they’ve been caught and on one overtaken.  Okay so there’s niggling injuries and a slight loss of form going against Leeds which narrows the gap between the two without giving Rovers a head start because even with those factors Leeds remain an excellent sight, competitive until the last minute and sometimes electric before then.  First hit out Hull KR were on a reasonably level footing, form was still to be found so ball handling wasn’t as smooth and such surprises have a tendency to decrease in frequency as the season goes along.  I’m holding out hope that Hull KR can dominate the Leeds pack, which I don’t think is beyond them as a side, control the football and more importantly defend well.  They should be able to force the Rhinos to break into a sweat and the Warriors have shown that if you compete with them physically and don’t allow them to settle, Leeds can be beaten.  Hull KR can raise their game so their fans are right to expect a good showing, I just think that the cup weekend will have allowed Leeds to recharge when they probably need it.  Leeds by 8.

Warrington v Saints
Amidst a week of game of the week contenders this is my selection because it’s a fixture that carries with it more than just a local rivalry in the frontier towns of Earlestown and Newton-le-Willows.  This is a game that has produced the most one-sided head-to-head result in Super League and now has the added drama of a team in crisis looking to overcome that hoodoo against all odds.  I’m not sure it could get that much worse for fans of the heavily tipped slumping side.  Following some good performances and results at the start of the season, inconsistency, poor defence and disappointing attitude has crept into their play and in conjunction with shock losses to Harlequins RL and at Wakefield they found themselves looking to arrest that slide with trips to Leeds and a homer against Saints.  There are no eyes of envy on Warrington over these two weekends.  Can the home team rock up and throw everything into this game to show us they’re not going to fade from view in the playoff picture?  I don’t think anybody really knows.  Early in the season confidence was good, results were and flashes of brilliance were on show but that loss to McDermott’s men has really flattened them leading them to face their least favourite opponents at a time when they’re struggling to inspire themselves to victory.  Okay, you can look at the players, their ability and the gameplans, usually managing to see how things are going to work out but league is as much about mental strength as it is skill and ability with this being one of those times where Warrington need to apply determination and resilience.  Warrington have to be more committed, more enthusiastic and more physical if they are to win this game because I don’t think they can wait around to see if the passes stick or whether Briers’ latest Airbus pass hits its target or not.  At times like this when things aren’t connecting you need to hustle and bustle to make something happen to give you that confidence, which is something that Harlequins RL do well so its no coincidence that Wire’s poor run of form happened then.  It was a theory designed to test the coaching credentials of Paul Cullen.  Can Cullen lift his men?  Is this the time that Warrington lift themselves above their rivals?  I don’t think you will find one statistic that will support that they can.  The odds have been better before and worse results have followed so whilst the two teams are level on points and Saints are hardly in blistering form themselves the weight of historical results plays a part in this fixture even though coach after coach will tell you they don’t.  For me, Saints at Warrington is normally a keenly-fought, entertaining encounter full of drama and excitement.  Warrington might not be in that run of form that would have you fancying them for the win yet I still expect Cullen’s dictionary diatribe to rouse a competitive display from his troops that puts them in the running for at least sixty minutes of the game, after that history suggests Saints will take the two points which is difficult to go against.  Saints by 4.

Catalans v Castleford
Who can stop the Dragons?  The form team of the competition can recognise the contribution their Saints-bound coach has made by propelling themselves to second in the table, if only for a day.  At the beginning of the season there wouldn’t have been many people who would have said that the Dragons would be so high up the table at any point in the season but they are and although this middle act presents them with some tough away games at Saints, Bradford and Hull they should still be in the playoff hunt come the final third of the season.  Castleford unfortunately capitulated at The Stoop last week as Harlequins RL just ran through them in a very disappointing second half for the Tigers.  Can they hope to push the Dragons close on their own turf?  People say that Catalans are strong at home but I don’t see them as being stronger at home than most other teams and I think the defeats and draw support that so it stands that they must have improved away from home.  What does this mean for the Tigers chances?  I’d say not much which isn’t to undermine Castleford but is to fold my opinion up and tuck it in behind the Dragons form.  Castleford have certainly played in spurts this year and them performing at a level that can compete with the third placed side is something that I fancy might happen on Saturday, however I can’t see that Potter will let his side undo the good work they’ve done away from home with defeat here.  Catalans by 6.

Wakefield v Harlequins
Regular SKY Saturday night viewers will remember the mess that the first game between these two was and will be hoping for no repeat this weekend.  That night Wakefield turned on the Kear gears in the first half only to find their handling dawdling behind their creativity, consequently allowing Harlequins to regroup at the break and exploit the loss of Jason The Argonaut to good effect.  How is this one going to work out?  Well Wakefield banished their zero away wins column at Huddersfield, following that up with Sunday’s cup win and now they should feel quite confident that, at home, they can turn over Harlequins, who lie above them by one point in the table.  Just how close is this competition so far?  Wakefield who have stuttered along this year, fighting against key personnel losses, are within immediate striking distance of the playoffs and that’s something that won’t have escaped Kear’s attention.  How is this one going to pan out?  Difficult to say because these are two different football teams, Wakefield mixing the more traditional expansive game with the modern needs of collision competency whereas Harlequins revel in that physical contest which is something that we’ve not been able to say since the days of Peter Gill.  Away from home utilising the ball in the manner that Wakefield do can prove a problem against fired up hosting sides, but at home there’s usually some scope for error without punishment on the scoreboard.  Harlequins’ RL tight game can be a perfect counter to that and their second half against Castleford was great for their burgeoning confidence, another win here and I think they can talk seriously of a playoff place.  As it happens, I’ve gone against Harlequins RL when I’ve been right to and they’ve overturned my prediction so my standard prediction of a Harlequins RL loss goes in here and I think that because Wakefield are a bit more intelligent in their use of the ball this is a top six pressurising victory for Wakefield.  Wakefield by 4.

Bradford v Wigoon
Fifth hosts second in my backup game of the week, a match-up that has lost some of the pizzazz of earlier Super League years as both teams attempt to get back in amongst the trophies.  Saddened by the news that Trent Barrett may well be putting his villa in Whelley up for sale, I don’t think the visitors’ fans will be looking at this game with any fear.  In the last meeting the ball was on the floor more times than Didier Drogba and the Warriors reluctantly accepted control of the game forging out an important and relatively safe win.  Steve McNamara has his side tucked nicely in behind the leaders, within striking range moreover his side’s loss at Hull KR is not as big a surprise as it would have been twelve months ago so the Bulls are considered to be a side in better form than most.  Are they really though?  Just look at those victories that they’ve had in recent weeks, at Hull and two home games against Castleford and an injured ruptured Harlequins RL side, hardly turned-the-corner stuff.  I’m sure Brian Noble will be aware of that fact and there’ll be some mention of it in his preparation because good results can create the impression of mental toughness when really there’s none there.  Now I’m not dismissing the Bulls or their league position I’m saying that after that drubbing Leeds gave them they’ve won three out of the next four league games with the one they lost being the not only the most recent but probably most challenging.  This to me suggests that the Bulls had done what was expected of them in their three wins and nothing more.  Who do you go for?  Both are coming off loses in the last round of Super League matches but because there’s a cup game between them does that mean losing two games in a row is now out of the window?  If it does that alters things dramatically.  If it doesn’t, that record the Warriors have of not losing two games in a row since August is looking good for pushing them to another win here and I think that this Wigoon team, welcoming back several regulars, has  more resilience and spirit in them than their receding opponents.  Wigoon by 4.

Hull v Huddersfield
Two teams fighting for scraps and coattails of those above, hoping to not fall out of the playoff race.  Losing here does not mean that you’re out of the picture for some knockout football with things so close up above, however the way that the competition is playing out this year, coupled with each team demonstrating that they can compete at higher levels than before, it’s going to be hard to get back up the table with so many ahead of you.  One thing that these two teams have shown though is that they can count amongst their accomplishments second half of the season surges going into that postseason and I see no reason why that kind of effort can’t be repeated.  Huddersfield took the two points at home and the expectation is here that the home team will be able to secure the points again this time.  I can’t really disagree with that.  At Castleford I was expecting the Tigers to be fired up enough to unnerve Hull still Hull showed poise in traversing The Jungle, hacking through a pretty lame defence.  Huddersfield are unlikely to give Peter Sharp relaxing thoughts and he will point to them putting on a couple of good shows this year.  Sadly for Giants fans though that regularity hasn’t appeared, leaving them to look forward to another surge which will gradually moves towards the status of miracle as each loss comes along.  Numerous times this year I’ve made reference to the Giants pack and I’m on the verge of giving up talking about it if they lose here.  It’s more than good on paper, I’ve seen it perform in the flesh so my constant harping on about it is getting as stale as Warrington’s Brasso.  Hull are a team that I’ve not backed often this year, here though I see this as a good test of them, one that they can pass and give themselves some belief that they can get back into contention.  What a good way to prepare for a derby match.  Hull by 6.

Last round’s predictions;

Tigers by 4 (lost by 20)
Leeds by 10 (won by 20)
Saints by 6 (won by 46)
Wigoon by 10 (lost by 2)
Giants by 8 (lost by 2)
Bulls by 6 (lost by 2)

Another stinker there with only two correct predictions although only three of those results were as the bookies predicted and there’s three two-point games in there as well.  You’ve got to love this competition this year.  Overall it’s 38-30 (56%), mid-table mediocrity for me.

We’re almost at the end of the first act in this year’s competition and as we approach that point we’ve just come off the back of one of the most unexpected weekends of an already unpredictable season. 

Expansion Heroes
Harlequins RL and Les Catalans Dragons, the two surprise performers in Super League XIII without doubt.  It’s still relatively early in the season to talk about playoff appearances and past history suggests that both teams will fall off the pace and return to their expected lower table positions by the end of the season, however we think that we should be celebrating the success, so far this season, for the two most travelled teams in the league.  People tend to forget, when looking at Harlequins and Catalans just how far these teams travel every other week, forgetting the additional inconvenience, cost and how it can affect their performances on the field, having to go through this routine on a regular basis.  To overcome, what are excuses for other teams, and propel yourselves into fifth and sixth in the table is a feat especially when you consider that both sides have been suffering with the same injury problems as others but because they don’t have as many fans as, say, Hull we haven’t heard about it as much.  I could sink deeper into analysis about the strengths of Harlequins team spirit or the power of the French pack but I’d prefer to allow us the opportunity to soak in their success for a moment as they prepare for their final games in the round of fixtures, Saints and Wigoon, away because surely neither side can win those road trips…

Grand Final 2006 – Where Are They Now?
It’s been a mixed start to the season for one of the silverware favourites, Saints, with only three notable victories this season, albeit against the sides occupying second, third and fourth in the table.  The loss of your props is now perhaps as critical, if not more so, than your best playmaker and Hull’s current eleventh placed position in the league suggests that statement has more than a ring of truth about it with Saints’ missing similar players and struggling accordingly.  What’s happened to these two teams in the space of twelve months?  For some this is a continuation of last season’s form for Hull so it is not a shock but it is surprise.  What about Saints though?  Whenever this side has appeared in front of the SKY cameras this year they’ve entertained and competed at the level we all know they can, now they’re sitting seventh with an in-form Harlequins threatening to push them further away from the second placed spot they are after.  The thing is, for both teams, they could be in even worse positions had they had a touch less luck, particularly Saints who snatched two victories at home in the dying seconds so in theory Saints could well have been sitting third from bottom a point above Hull.  Talk of a Saints slide might be premature and many will still be fancying them for a top two finish but just look at that middle schedule of fixtures that sees them take trips to Wigoon, Warrington, Leeds, Wakefield, Harlequins and Hull.  The Saints of last year may have won five out of six of those but can the Saints of this year?  It should be an interesting middle third for Saints fans as their steel for a fight is tested.

Warrington Grind To A Halt
As one titan shows early signs of rust a team tipped to become a new one is finding it difficult to live up to those expectations.  Following defeat to the Bulls a few weeks ago, Warrington returned home, beat the Giants with room to spare and fended off the Tigers on the back end of the bank holiday weekend.  The loss to the Bulls was not unexpected and a return to winning ways in the next two games was a sign that the old Warrington inconsistencies were being removed gradually.  Sadly for their eager fans, the heavens conspired to dampen their free flowing attacking style and Gareth “Son Of Roy” Haggerty snatched two home points that many thought were not even put out on the sideboard for discussion.  It was a loss that meant yesterday’s match with Wakefield was important because it would indicate just how serious the Wolves are about contending for a top two spot.  A day later and it’s two surprise defeats casting serious doubts over those credentials with Warrington fans themselves probably asking questions.  Those who are looking at the whole of the competition will note that despite these two defeats Warrington still lie only four points from the top and so it’s far too early to be questioning where these two losses leave the Wolves.

Noble Warriors
Whilst their two Mersey rivals show flashes of brilliance the faded glamour of cherry and white has never looked so good as Brian Noble’s men sit comfortably in second after their first league-notifying win of the season.  That that win was over the current champions and consisted of them simply putting opposition players on their backside repeatedly should not be forgotten.  Even now I think that most fans are bemused about Wigoon’s rise back to prominence and it will take some more similar big results to get people taking their title aspirations seriously but figure this;  Wigoon have travelled to Saints, Leeds, Hull, Harlequins, Huddersfield and Warrington in those first ten games which is some fixture list and given their head coach’s past record in peaking at the right time i.e. he won it once from third, this could be the fifth reich coming!

There’s No Easy Games Anymore
I wanted to write something a bit more in-depth about the competitiveness of this year’s competition but it might be better to leave that for another month or two when squad depth might have played a bigger impact.  However, I couldn’t leave without adding my voice of concern to the increasing of the league to fourteen clubs.  Given how long it has taken the competition to get to a point where we’re looking at every round of fixtures as being competitive, I’d be worried about taking that away until the sport has the player reserves to support it.

With Saints pushing the champions all the way, Harlequins shocking the next-big-things and Dwain Chambers promised some kicking tee duties on Sunday it’s been an interesting week in SL as we plough into round ten.  Round ten?  The NRL is, in contrast, heading into round five without any additional rounds for challenge cup ties or additional fixtures so just remember that come the end of the season when the superhuman efforts of Harlequins RL fade into obscurity at the World Cup as our exhausted heroes are dragged onto the paddock for humiliation at the hands of the Australians.  It’s a saddening thought because some of the forward efforts this year have been the strongest for years and finally just as it looks like Peacock might well get some fresh blood out there supporting him, they’ll probably be shattered. 

Huddersfield v Catalans (+
The Giants followed up an excellent win against Saints by pinching a point at Hull KR and they’ll be fancying their chances against the league’s most penalised side.  Although the Dragons are undefeated in four games they haven’t been conclusive victories and whilst this is a game that both teams can win I expect that Huddersfield’s form at home is going to be too good for them to let two points slip from their grasp, however don’t rule out a close game because this Catalans side has shown that it can put points on the board with Bosc and Mogg alleviating the absence of Casey McGuire.  Giants by 6.

(+4) Hull v Bradford
Last week Hull ruined their 100% record in the south of France, dropping a point in a draw that could easily have been a win.  The Bulls, on the other hand, took the Tigers to the cleaners and that was the kind of result that Brian Noble would use to stablise his side against a poor run of form.  Can the faltering Steve McNamara do the same?  Had Hull a first choice front row on the field then I would say no.  However, fortune is favouring McNamara in the same way that it did on occasions with Noble and it’s set up for the Bulls to take two points that would’ve been a bonus a few weeks ago.  Don’t let the Hull hysteria about injuries fool you though, they’ve had plenty of good quality players on the field during this crisis and now have the returning Ewan Dowes in consideration for Friday’s game.  The home side will have taken a lot of confidence from maintaining their unbeaten record in Perpignan so it should be another tight game between two teams looking to string together some results that will put them on a roll or in Hull’s case, back amongst the playoff hunt.  Despite the poor start the Bulls have had they still sit level on points with Saints and only two points from second, having conceded less points than all but two other teams in the league, Leeds and Hull KR.  This is a tough game to call and with an unchanged line-up for the Bulls you can overlook their stuttering form and presume that their pack will remain too big for Hull’s.  Bulls by 2.

Harlequins RL v Hull KR (+2)
Now here’s a game and a half.  High-flying Harlequins RL at home to a team they can beat but probably won’t.  Is this my own concern about Harlequins RL inconsistency coming to the fore or am I seeing last week’s brilliant win over Warrington for the watersplash coin toss that it was?  I don’t know.  Last week’s win at the HJ owes everything to Brian McDermott’s team ethos and was nothing short of sensational.  The star-studded wage packets of Wire were left fumbling around in the puddles trying to do something with the ball before finally giving the ball some air when it was too late.  I know the conditions were bad but against a side that was missing as many starters as Harlequins RL was, I think you have to push the pace a bit more and put some pressure on them.  Hull KR have the personnel that can apply that kind of game and unfortunatley for the home side I don’t think there’ll be the weather around to act as the leveller like it did last week.  This, of course, isn’t taking anything away from last week’s result, it’s to highlight that when you’re up against a pack that is similarly hardworking but has a bit more power and creativity behind it you expect them to get the upper hand eventually during the game.  Will Hull KR do that?  It’s a true 50/50 game that would put a bit of daylight between Harlequins RL and their rivals for one of the lower top six spots and I just doubt that McDermott can extract another tremendous performance out of his troops for a second week in a row.  Hull KR by 4.

Leeds v Wigoon (+12)
A tougher-than-expected victory over Saints will have provided the champions with perfect preparation for the visit of a side that has a knack of being able to beat them.  There’s a world of difference though this time out between the two sides as Leeds seek to consolidate their quest for the league leader’s shield whilst the visitors remain unconvincing even though their results have been positive against sides where more fancied teams have failed.  It’s unlikely that Wigoon will repeat some of their more amazing feats with their pack really up against a forward group that has proven steadfast versus more physical sides.  For many it will be a question of how many the visitors can keep Leeds down to, however I’m not sure that will be the case on Saturday.  Leeds continue to avoid severe injuries to key personnel whereas Wigoon have missed key forwards and against a side that can manhandle your big men it’s going to be a long night for the travelling support.  Trent Barrett is likely to miss out again and although that won’t make much difference defensively, other than give Leeds forwards the opportunity to run at Mathers, you imagine that his absence virtually eliminates any chance of getting a result for the visitors.  That said, Wigoon have done this to Leeds many times before however I can’t see anybody going against the logic in this one with the anticipated downpour keeping the scoreline lower than it might have been.  Leeds by 14.

(+16) Castleford v Saints
An impressive performance in defeat to the champions last week suggests that Saints may be establishing some form for themselves and although victory on Sunday won’t confirm that (it’s expected), the manner of the performance might give a good indication.  Castleford have a history of proving difficult opposition for Saints at home, however their last meeting in Super League showed that the Yorkshire club really had fallen off the pace in professional football.  It I was a Cas fan I wouldn’t be peturbed at this stage of the season, the fact that they’ve claimed the champions’ scalp is enough preparation for the forthcoming reverse fixtures when I’d expect the results to be closer, particularly against the clubs in the middle and lower half of the table.  Saints are resting a couple of players for this game so it might be closer than many think but I was expecting the same a couple of years ago when Saints’ intensity exposed that difference in experience.  Saints by 14.

(+6) Wakefield v Warrington
This is an interesting fixture and after the Hull-Bulls game my game of the week.  It’s an interesting fixture not only because it promises to be an entertaining and competitive match but because of its importance to Warrington who embarrassed themselves at home to Harlequins RL last week.  Admittedly the conditions were appalling but it was still an unexpected loss that undermines their claims to be a team that has progressed significantly over recent years.  In contrast, Wakefield battled hard at the Stade De La Crust falling short by just four points and sadly for them, they’ve lost their talismanic skipper, Jason Demetriou, for the rest of the season and that’s a blow that I think will make it too hard for them to make the top six.  John Kear has his team playing good football and I don’t think that Wakefield will be struggling but Demetriou has been so important for them in recent seasons so it could mean an interesting reaction at Hells Belles Vue on Sunday.  Will the home side respond to that loss and surprise the re-aligning Wolves?  They could but I’m putting a bit more faith in Adrian Morley’s ability to lead his side to a win after a couple of good personal performances from him this season, part-justifying his salary and hype.  Wolves by 4.

Last week’s predictions;

Leeds by 12 (won by 4)
Wigoon by 14 (won by 4)
Catalans by 6 (draw)
Warrington by 18 (lost by 2)
Bulls by 14 (won by 46)
Hull KR by 8 (draw)

Two draws last week throw out the average a bit, making it 35-19 (65%)

Highlights from Cronulla’s shock 17-16 win over current NRL champions, Melbourne here, including the double sending off that occurred following a late elbow on the kicker.

We’re nine rounds into Super League XIII and although there’s a clear favourite for this year’s competition I wanted to say that it’s been tricky predicting many of the results this season, more so than any other season I think. This weekend offers only one game for me where there’s no clear favourite and that’s Hull trip to Perpignan. Out of the rest I think there’s a relatively clear favourite to take the points but even then none are really foregone conclusions and as fans I’m not sure we could ask for much more than that. I’m not saying that you don’t have matches that you expect to win, of course you do, but by and large these are home games. Send your team on a trip to another team’s playground and I think you would find that the majority of supporters would now be looking at each away trip as a game in which they know they could easily lose if the opposition plays well.

We’re not talking about a dilution of the competition as some may say, we’re talking about intensity in every match and knowing that if you’re not on your game for the full eighty minutes that a side that is can win the game against form. This last week we had Castleford, who are managing to get to grips with the competition as each week goes on, almost capturing the two points against Warrington on Easter Monday when, in theory, they have no right to. I would imagine that every Warrington fan was expecting to take the two points in that game but I expect that most of them would also be thinking that should Castleford get it together they could upset the odds. Of course, newly promoted teams will eventually start to reduce the number of errors in their game but the pleasing thing with Castleford is the commitment to youth which would probably not be as extensive if relegation was in play. Instead of seeing overseas signings clogging up the first seventeen the Tigers, as is the norm in Super League, are giving youngsters a chance and that can only be good for the game. Would this be the case if relegation was in the frame? Would it be the case for other sides if they weren’t restricted to a salary cap? Two straightforward questions that we should all consider.

(+4) Saints v Leeds
This has to go down as the game of the week with a lot of the British rugby league watching public hoping that Saints can muster some sort of opposition to a Leeds side that appears to be in complete control of their own destiny for this year. Two years ago Saints themselves raised the bar in this competition with a benchmark season during which they lost four games all by four points or less. It was a seminal year in Super League as Saints defence suffocated pretty much every single team in the competition, making each ball carrying player fight for every single inch going forward. Have we reached another seminal year with the Rhinos? Is this current side the logical successor? Of course, it’s too early in the competition to state with anything other than pure speculation that this Leeds side will be hailed by many as the best their club has ever produced. However, all the signs are there for Leeds and unlike in previous years they are looking every much like a championship winning side with the ball, which is not something that you could honestly say about them before this season. Yes, Leeds have sought to promote the ball previously but they have never managed to link up and offload like they have done this season and it’s not just a highlight of their play to see a forward pushing through the tackler and offloading to a runner on their shoulder, it’s also becoming a trademark for this year’s team. Brian McClennan has taken this side forward, in attack, in defence and more importantly in self-belief. Leeds now have a mental toughness that Tony Smith wasn’t able to instil on a consistent basis and if you’re looking at what you need to win the title and what others are missing at the moment it’s that. It’s not often that I’ve said this but a try and keeping the opposition under forty would be manageable as a home fan. Leeds by 12.

Wigoon v Wakefield (+12)
As expected, Wigoon were able to put behind them their Good Friday horror show and barge Hull KR off what would have been a tremendous four point weekend. Not only did it protect their bouncebackability status it also sets them up for Wakefield, a side that has improved away from home without getting any reward from that improvement. Throw into that mix Brough’s absence and I can’t see the Wildcats troubling arguably the league’s most mysterious side. Richie Mathers returns for the home team forcing the debate towards whether Pat Richards, who has impressed at full back, should stay there. The choice between Richards, who is proving to be one of the most reliable performers in Super League, and Mathers is an interesting one. Mathers was sounded out by many opposition fans as being a gamble, because of his injuries and known weak defence, which has been noticed by Warriors fans as well. Do you slot Richards into that role and reduce the impact he has with the high kicks? It’s tricky. You can say that Richards can drop onto the wing for the final tackle but I think that in doing so you take away something from his and the team’s game. I doubt that the third tackle bomb to him from Barrett a couple of weeks ago would have happened had he been at full back and whilst Richards has that phobia about running his own body weight he still is a handful close to the line. Richards on the wing, take a chance with Mathers at full back because Wakefield won’t be strong enough to punish him this weekend. Wigoon by 14.

(+6) Catalans v Hull
If I wasn’t going to the game of the week, this is the other game that I’d be most interested in attending, not just for the language difficulties that would arise for me although I do speak enough French to get by with one set of supporters. No, this game is a hard game for Hull to win yet it’s a game that their fans will be looking at as one that they need to push for a win because it’s the Bulls at home next week, which certainly isn’t a should-win. Can Hull do it? I don’t know. From the start of the season and through last season, to some extent, I’ve looked at their attack and see nothing that would give me any hope that the return of two very good props would alleviate. Okay, Richard Horne returning would mean that there’s a couple of tries a year from his close yardage play but there still remains that lack of verve when they do have the ball. Against Catalans you might be able to get away with not being adventurous with the ball because you can usually rely on them having periods during the game when they’re going to suffer fumble frenzies which means you will get opportunities against them. This all dovetails quite nicely into another one of those games where you can’t pick out, with conviction, who is going to walk away with the two points. Like most of the closer match-ups you have to look at pure form and home advantage to see if there’s something outside of the starting seventeen that gives an indication as to where the points are going to go. Hull are missing perhaps too many key players to guarantee a win in this one I think and the chance to win four in a row is probably too good for Potter’s players to pass up. Catalans by 6.

Warrington v Harlequins (+12)
A couple of weeks ago this Saturday tussle would have had people talking about a potential humdinger, free-scoring Warrington up against a tight defensive Harlequins. Sadly injuries in the Harlequins squad have shed light on the rest of their players and I don’t think it’s disrespectful to say that Brian McDermott is still in the process of building up his side, particularly underneath the first seventeen. The very fact that we’re allowed to talk about Harlequins actually just needing a bit more time to bring through their own youngsters is progress in itself and perhaps proof of the benefits of how youth development and its importance is enhanced by the salary cap. Last year Warrington would have the majority of fans backing them but with many still undecided. It still grates with some sections of the Warrington support that not everyone is praising their efforts and pushing their case for expected participation in one of this year’s finals and I can understand why that is. This year Warrington’s results speak for themselves in justifying Wire fans’ complaints about any scepticism without completely satisfying those for whom doubts remain and I include myself in that crowd. I don’t think anyone will be backing against Warrington, however even a comfortable win in this game, which is what it should be, won’t remove reservations that people have about Cullen’s defensive coaching which is still an uncertainty for his supporters. It’s unlikely that Harlequins will push Warrington too much in this encounter and they’ll be relying on another strong showing without the ball to keep them in this game so the question will be how long can Harlequins keep that attack at bay. Warrington by 18.

Bradford v Castleford (+16)
Joe Westerman is attracting a lot of plaudits after only a few games in the top flight and rightfully so. Compared already to back-to-back Man of Steel winner, Paul Sculthorpe, it’s fair to say that he’s performing better than I remember either Sculthorpe or Farrell doing at the same age. Hopefully Castleford can tie the future international into a long-term deal to prevent him going to one of the bigger clubs and I include my own in that. Asking him and Sherwin to construct a victory over at Odsal is going to be tough though. It’s not that the Bulls are flying high, they aren’t, but they usually have enough to beat the Tigers at home. Bulls by 14.

Hull KR v Huddersfield (+4)
Huddersfield coach Jon Sharp said his side have “started to earn the respect of the whole rugby league world” and I am not one to argue with that. It didn’t take a win over Saints to confirm that to me (I was already there) and although that win was tremendous it’s in games like these where the lesser teams earn their respect. Every side can pull a win out against one of the competition favourites so the focus for the Giants and Rovers, turns towards how they do against sides of perceived similar ability and aspirations. At home the Giants are a match for anyone this year, away remains the place where they need to rise to the occasion and this game is a chance for them to announce themselves this year. Kevin Brown was impressive against Saints and despite his slight stature he promises to break through the advantage line when he takes on the defence. Rovers’ defence though is strong and like Huddersfield they are a physical side, probably harder than the Giants can handle away from home. There’s power and skill in both sides, however I feel that Rovers, who pushed Wigoon for the points on Easter Monday, just have that extra class that can prove a difference at home. Against Hull, Rovers were strong and more importantly clever and I expect that combined with the Giants inconsistency during games to be too much for Sharp’s men. Hull KR by 8.

Easter Monday’s predictions;

Bulls by 18 (won by 8 )
Warrington by 14 (won by 3)
Catalans by 5 (won by 8 )
Saints by 8 (lost by 2)
Leeds by 10 (won by 26)
Wigoon by 10 (won by 6)

Third round in a row for five out of six correct making it 32-16 or two out of every three games correct.

Bradford v Harlequins RL (+14)
It was even more painful than predicted for the Bulls as Maundy Thursday turned out to be a crucifixion of sorts at the hands of the champions. There’s been a fair bit of talk about the result and how much is down to Leeds’ brilliance and how much down to absent players and poor RL play. Whilst the truth lies somewhere in the middle I don’t think it’s a crazy statement to say that the lack of five starters and the Bulls inability to run, pass, catch and tackle contributed to the result more than the champions. If you’re coming off that I don’t think there would be many other fixtures that the Bulls would prefer than Harlequins at home. Losing to the Dragons after being 18-6 at half time is a very poor result because they would expect to secure a win from that position against a team of similar ability. The lack of weight in the pack proved telling on Friday against Catalans and although the Bulls are missing some big men of their own they have enough to expose that again at Odsal. Harlequins know where the try line is despite not being big yardage makers, which suggests that they are a team that exploits opposition mistakes to the fullest. Given that the Bulls continue to have difficulty in handling the ball there will be opportunities for the visitors but the Bulls can contest this game more easily than the Headingley thrashing. Bulls by 18.

(+12) Castleford v Warrington
A strong showing at local rivals Wakefield has the Tigers going into this game with some confidence following a second half at Belle Vue in which they completed sixteen of eighteen sets. That kind of control is going to be needed against the Wolves who stretched away from the Giants in the final quarter of their round seven match. Warrington struggled to get a grip on their game and turning the ball over will do nothing other than give the home side that confidence that can quickly build up when the locals sense the smell of west coast blood. I can’t imagine that a Wire team that has seen off Hull KR, Huddersfield and Wigoon is likely to give the Tigers enough field position to win the game, especially with the momentum that they have going into this game. If Monaghan is back there should be plenty of daylight between the two. Warrington by 14.

Catalans v Wakefield (+
A terrific opportunity for Catalans to register a third consecutive win as the Wildcats visit with their dismal road form. There was an element of theft in the Dragons successful trip to The Stoop which is adequate compensation for their last defeat, at home to the Bulls. Wakefield’s Danny Brough found it difficult to establish a hold of the game at Hull and the return of his half back partner, Rooney, at home meant he didn’t suffer the same kind of problems versus Castleford. In Wakefield’s last two away trips they’ve not been overwhelmed and have competed at a level higher than expected so this becomes another match that should go one way but could easily go the other. The Dragons are on a roll, returning home, looking to get two points that will put them level in the playoff hunt with Hull the next guests. I just can’t see past Wakefield’s results away from home even though they’ll be looking at this game as one of those away games where they can win. Dragons by 6.

(+10) Huddersfield v Saints
Some difference one performance can make on your perception towards a game like the Giants hosting Saints. Go back to the day prior to Good Friday and I was looking at this game as one of those Giant big name killings but now my thoughts have changed. Saints showed a resilient determination to swamp Wigoon and set themselves on their way to playing the game like they can. Defensively Saints were strong and they will need to repeat that effort on Monday, knowing all too well how powerful the Giants can be at home. At Warrington the home side managed to push the Giants off the pitch which should give fans at the Galpharm something to worry about going into this clash. On the other hand, the Giants know that they had the better of Saints before when they’ve had their first choice front row playing so doubt should not be an issue. What is a concern is the creativity at half back, which was highlighted in the seaon preview. Robinson and Brown were always likely to be the subjects of an examination when the side doesn’t win putting more pressure onto the two against a side that completely shut down man of steel contenders, Barrett and Leuluai, on Friday, thanks to an outstanding effort without the ball. Had Good Friday’s game been closer then my concerns over Saints facing up to the Giants monsters would have me leaning towards a home win and although I think that’s more than possible it’s difficult to predict that form suggests it won’t be the outcome. Saints by 8.

(+ Hull v Leeds
Hull fans seem a bit divided about their team’s performances this season with half blaming injuries and half looking towards Peter Sharp’s lifeless attacking play.  Whatever the case, it’s been the latter that’s been the most obvious to me because some of the younger players that have come through have played well and certainly not let the side, with the exception of Tommy Lee’s kick on the third tackle on Friday.  The loss of the two starting props is clearly preventing Hull from competing against the big guns but it shouldn’t be a barrier against winning all their games, however it’s a big gun in town today.  Leeds gave out such a whooping on Thursday that Bradford’s payroll department have been told they’ll have to come in tonight to prepare P45s if they lose against Harlequins today, whilst Leeds payroll are processing yet more bonus payments.  If Hull had Carvell and Dowes fronting up then there’d be questions marks over this scoreline but I’m not sure that even they could bring two points home with a one out attack that is going to play straight into the hands of the Rhinos defence. Leeds by 10.

Wigoon v Hull KR (+
Humiliation on Friday will act as all the motivation that Wigoon need to return to winning ways.  Simply put they were not in the game, outclassed with the ball and inept without it, something that Brian Noble should have ironed out of the side by now.  Instead the home still have that capability of coughing up the ball, straying offside and just general indiscipline.  That’s a stark contrast to a Hull KR side who played controlled football in typical Craven Park weather and will seek to use that to capitalise on anticipated Wigoon mistakes.  Hull KR shocked the RL world last season when they strolled to a monstrous half-time lead, surviving a second half fight back to win and they’ve no reason to be lacking in confidence today.  They have the game to expose the kind of mistakes that the home side are committing, however Wigoon don’t lose two games in a row often and although the volume of defensive work may have taken its toll on  them, I think that the same can be said for Hull KR.  If the away team do win it’ll be because they’ve been clever and kept it tight but I can’t see Wigoon not turning up again against these guys at home. Wigoon by 10.

Last week’s predictons.

Leeds by 16 (won by 42)
Hull KR by 6 (won by 1)
Saints by 2 (won by 36)
Harlequins by 2 (lost by 2)
Warrington by 8 (won by 16)
Wakefield by 10 (won by

Second round in row with five out of six results correct (is that evidence enough for me to say I have a bit of a clue? lol), making it 27-15 (64%) overall

Leeds v Bradford (+
A much needed win against a fellow playoff contender for the Bulls puts them in better shape to face their derby rivals in the Easter weekend opener.  It used to be the case that no matter how well Leeds were playing, the Bulls would usually win the majority of derby matches, but those days are gone.  Nowadays a Leeds side in form doesn’t appear to have too much difficulty in winning these ones and the Bulls no longer have Big Les to save their skins so everyone is leaning towards a comfortable victory for the home team.  In round six both clubs returned to winning ways with Leeds electrifying Harlequins with the kind of reality check not seen since Bath last ventured into the north for a rugby match and although the Bulls bettered one of the competition’s form teams it still remains a win that they would have expected prior to the start of the season.  Let’s not cheapen that win though, Warrington have been playing in bursts this year and those bursts have seen off lesser teams so to hold what was the league’s most potent offence to just ten points says something about the determination that the Bulls had to not slip out of top four contention.  Sadly for the Bulls, the worm has well and truly turned in this fixture and without the mythical Vainikolo to instil frailty in the Rhinos ranks I can see only one winner in this, especially with Vagana, Platt, Tupou, Sykes, Morrison and Langley missing.  It could be painful.  Leeds by 16.

Hull KR v Hull (+2)
Super League XII saw the restoration of this rambunctious head-to-head.  Eagerly anticipated, they were matches of Slavic intensity further enhanced by the Paul Cooke soap opera.  A season later and that anticipation is arguably even greater thanks to the on field performances by Rovers who can threaten to put distance between the two by winning this one.  Anything beyond a competitive showing last year was a bonus so to actually get the better of Hull was incredible not just for their fans but also for a watching public that was invited to witness a local rivalry in which form wasn’t really playing a part.  How is this game going to pan out?  There’s a straightforward train of thought that says Hull have recovered some form in the past few weeks, they have NRL stars at half back and some of their youngsters have been playing at a level much higher than can be expected, Houghton in particular getting many mentions.  Alternatively, there’s the train of thought that I subscribe to which is the weather is poor, Rovers have the bigger pack, it’s at home and both Ben Fisher and Paul Cooke are back in the side. It is a derby though and last year nobody could really have predicted the outcomes so doubt creeps in.  However, I think the conditions and temperament of the home side (better ball control and discipline) favour them for the win.  Hull KR by 6.

Saints v Wigoon (+
Good Friday’s traditional headliner isn’t generating the same amount of column inches this week thanks to indifferent starts to both teams but it’s still second versus fourth and very much game of the round.  Saints prop problems have been well discussed and led to closer results at home and defeats away.  Similarly, their rivals have fought their way through moments of mediocrity to register four wins, three of which were definite banana skins.  There is unlikely to be any shortage of confidence from either team despite their displays this year because neither has managed to produce their top form but still sit high up in the league table.  When you look at the likely starting 17s there’s a healthy mix of star names and proficient youngsters with the visiting side shading things in power with their two main props.  Get beyond the front row and it becomes an analysis of defensive players, competent players, squad players and youngsters who are still in many ways taking their first steps in the first grade.  In the backs it’s pretty even with the moving of Richards to full back likely to be the only movement that takes something off either side’s attack.  Who will win?  It’s important for the home side to stop the runs of Paleaaesina because without those you wonder where the yards are going to come from now that Hock is injured.  The league is still waiting for Fielden to regain consciousness and if there’s a time to do it then against a pack containing one big man is that time.  It’s a very tight call and not reflective of the eight points start that the second place team is getting particularly when you realise that Saints have stolen two of their wins at home against the current tenth and eleventh placed teams.  Unlikely to be a classic, likely to be a desperate attempt by both to win a game that sets Wigoon on their way or stops a Saints rot.  Saints by 2.

Harlequins v Catalans (+4)
Two key forwards are missing from the Harlequins line-up shifting this can-win game into something a lot riskier.  Catalans will be confident after disposing of Saints with relative ease and it was against a side, like Harlequins, missing their big men so you have to believe that this game is well within their sights.  It’s a potentially great game for the locals as Harlequins welcome back some of their leaders, most of whom they will need against a side with the visitors’ size.  When your opponents are constantly pounding you with big energy and morale sapping runs it’s your veterans that lead by example and emphasise the importance of being mentally strong, be that in defence of taking up the ball.  McDermott will be more than disappointed about the humiliation at Headingley but it will also have given him a better assessment of his side’s progress than beating Wakefield and Castleford would have.  Was last week just a blip or a more truthful indicator of where his side is at?  His side have already demonstrated that they are better than other teams fancied to finish outside of the playoff positions so you have to believe that a powerful Catalans side should be something they can handle and although I question whether Harlequins’ pack is up to this test, I’ve backed against them in less favourable games already this year to my cost and their benefit.  Harlequins by 2.

Warrington v Huddersfield (+10)
This is a clear statement.  Warrington cannot lose this game if their progress is to be taken seriously.  The loss at Odsal wasn’t entirely unexpected and perhaps only Leeds would go there with justifiable belief that they will take the two points so we haven’t read too much into that result.  With all due respect to the Giants it’s Warrington that are the focus of this match because victory for the home side is expected (a ten point start for Huddersfield) whereas for the side that threw away two points last week, I think they probably fancy their chances more at home to Saints on Monday.  The one critical factor for this game is Michael Monaghan’s participation.  At the moment it’s looking like he may not be playing and I’m sure that his non-appearance would have a strong negative impact on the home side’s ability to crash over the line out wide from their speedy distribution.  It is a doubt though so I’m assuming he’s playing and although the Giants forwards might well have an edge on the Wolves there’s a bit more magic in that Wire side both in promoting the ball and in controlling the pace of the game.  All that talk of Warrington winning and expecting to win does mean that a defeat here means the first twisting of the pop bottle top of those supporters’ frustrations.  Warrington by 8.

Wakefield v Castleford (+
Yet another cracking derby and one that I don’t think is as big a game as an eight point start.  Okay, we know that Castleford have proven vulnerable in defence and their ability to retain possession, however we are talking about local rivals travelling with little pressure on them for one of the league’s top grudge .  Unfortunately for the Tigers, Wakefield have Jason The Argonaut, Tony Martin and Jamie Rooney returning whilst Danny Sculthorpe has managed to avoid further absences through injury.  Both teams have some tidy footballers in their ranks and not just in the backs and even in the darkest days of Super League these two have served up some dazzling rugby, usually interspersed by severe bouts of incompetence.  I expect that tomorrow’s game will play out in a similar manner so Castleford may well hang in there for some time but you look at their opponents and see that there are four or five players that can make things happen which persuades you to review the Tigers defence and wonder if they can keep them quiet for so long at home.  Build on these early games and get character Castleford because it’s only through such encounters that you can return later in the year to wreck that chase for the playoffs.  Wakefield by 10.

Last week’s predictons.

Hull by 4 (won by 10)
Leeds by 16 (won by 4
Catalans by 6 (won by 14)
Hull KR by 12 (won by 16)
Bulls-Wire draw (Bulls won by 13)
Wigoon by 4 (won by 1)

Good week with five out of six results correct, making it 22-14 (61%) overall

Hull v Wakefield (+12)
Saints’ most recent get-out-of-jail-card victims clash for what could be an entertaining game.  I say could be because they’re also teams that without form can give you the scrappiest of games.  Logic says six rounds in still isn’t competency week so I’m guessing it might just be one of those testing games to watch.  After Brough’s attempt to claim the two points at Knowsley Road two weeks ago, Adam Dykes poked for the leaks last week and like Wakefield was denied in true Entertainment with a capital E style.  Of the two teams Wakefield showed a lot more imagination with the ball, John Kear applying some great strategy by just bombarding Saints with big man after big man.  Hull’s strength I thought was a clever ball control game supported by strong defence.  What difference that is going to make is disputable.  Kear might try the same power game off the bench here and it could well work so maybe it’s a chance worth taking with Hull missing their two main props.  Does that play into Hull’s hands?  Hull are relatively tough to run over and at home they can go above determined football and take you to the cleaners.  Halfway through the season I’d be expecting Hull to have overcome their ball retention issues whereas I would probably vision Wakefield still lacking consistency in that area.  Right now though I think the home advantage coupled with Wakefield backing up after two tough games favours Hull in a game they’d expect to win at any stage of this season.  Hull by 4.

Leeds v Harlequins RL (+14)
Indisputable game of the week as first takes on second.  I’ve continued to back against Harlequins, home, away, against lesser opposition, against the run of form but not against Leeds.  That Harlequins are so far up the table at this stage is very credible and demands more than simple patronising platitudes and observations.  The teams that have lost to Harlequins don’t lend themselves to a dissection of the greatest talent in the league, however on-paper teams have failed where Harlequins have succeeded and its no coincidence that the two teams leading the competition have conceded the least points.  Leeds will be missing Matt Diskin whilst Henry Paul sits this one out for Harlequins.  How much of an influence that will have on the result I’m not sure.  The Tower Of Strength, Jamie Peacock comes back from a week’s rest so expect a different side this Friday to last and in front of what’s likely to be a big crowd for their first game as new World Club Champions.  Castleford played well last week and nobody is taking anything away from that victory by suggesting that Leeds may have been a bit bleary eyed in attitude.  With Saints at Catalans and Warrington at Bradford there’s every chance that Leeds could be sitting four points clear of the pack with only six rounds gone and last week’s loss won’t matter if that’s the case.  Points difference gives us little difference between the two teams but you only have to glance down the OPTA stats to see that there is.  Harlequins lie second in the number of tackles made so far during this season and have racked up over 250 more than Leeds who have a made the second lowest in the league.  Their defence will be put to the test against a Leeds side that sits 300m ahead of their closest rival, Wigoon, in metres made, tops the offload and tackle bust totals and lies second in the number of clean breaks made.  This is a completely different side to what Harlequins have played before and some stats don’t lie so the visitors will need to defend exceptionally well.  Most  Harlequins fans are used to this now but I can’t see a repetition of last week’s dumping of the champions.  Leeds by 16.

(+6) Catalans Dragons v Saints
The X-Factor audition of RL over in Perpignan sees the Dragons looking to secure some treasure in the form of two points from a Saints side that’s snatched victory at the death in consecutive home games.  In both of those games it was the forwards that set the tone of the match with Wakefield rotating four forwards off the bench and Hull finding it relatively easy to make yards against Saints.  We all know that the one thing that Catalans have brought with their forwards is size.  It was something that the rest of the league probably thought they would struggle with before they were integrated into the competition.  After various performances over the past two years any questions on their pack focus on defensive tenacity so they should be able to make yards going forward against a Saints defence that has held its own when it’s needed to.  Both sides are missing key players and the last two home results for Saints suggest that this is a home win for Catalans with Potter keen to impress.  Saints haven’t got a great record at the Dragons lair and although it’s certainly within their reach I think that Catalans’ power will just catch up with Saints’ lack of weight in defence.  Catalans by 6.

Hull KR v Castleford (+
Terrific win last week at home leads to a tough game on the road for Cas and despite those heroics I can’t see past a home win.  Hull KR continue to push the results and have been unlucky in all their defeats this year with those close results surely proving enough motivation for them to produce a positive scoreline this week.  Brent Sherwin turned in a man of the match performance last week and he will need some good support for the Tigers to mount a serious threat in this one.  The lack of physical strength in the pack was highlighted prior to the start of the season and it shows with Castleford sitting next to bottom in number of metres made.  Some of that can be put down to the fact that the Tigers concede yardage and points, placing greater emphasis on the need for their defence to perform.  However, you’re struggling in Super League if you can’t move the ball away from your own line and you give good field position to your opponent.  Hull KR have invested wisely in their pack, competed in every game and done so without really promoting the ball in a manner that we have become used to.  A tight, efficient outfit is what Hull KR are turning into and a side with good ball control can quite easily wear you down, putting you in positions you do not want to be trying to play football in.  Hull KR by 12.
 

Bradford v Warrington (Scratch)
A last minute win saved the Bulls from starting this week in the bottom three as their attention now shifts towards facing up to the most potent attacking outfit in Super League.  That was a bonus win which really didn’t ease the pressure on the players or coaching staff because Sunday’s game is two points that you can’t switch off for but anticipate winning.  At the moment the season is still a struggle to find their feet for the former champions and I’m not sure that a resurgent Warrington team are what you’d want to be facing.  It’s not that Warrington don’t have moments of spontaneous human combustion, they may even be the most frequent of those teams that experience it, it’s that they are in their best form of the professional era.  Just one loss sits under that big L and Big L is the kind of player that the Bulls have relied on in the past to spark them out of a rut.  Last week’s win can realign the home team to a winning spirit in the players if it’s followed up with a win here.  Progress in performance is not enough for McNamara in this fixture, already we’re looking at yet another key game for his side.  Warrington announced that they were genuine contenders by beating a twelve man Wigoon side and although harsh critics would point out that some decisions may have gone their way they won’t be able to ignore that their forwards had a good workout too.  Form points towards an away win and Warrington have managed it before in more trying circumstances and form but there’s that feeling that everyone must have about the Bulls that they can’t sit this still for so long.  There must be a time when they get their game together, however I’m not sure that they’re ready to return to there and similarly I’m not sure that they’re going to flop about in the mud giving us all a laugh either.  Draw. 

(+2) Huddersfield v Wigoon
Wigoon’s loss to Warrington was overshadowed by Hollywood Ganson accusations whilst Huddersfield’s failure to register a score sank into the background as the RL public sought to give Harlequins some well deserved recognition.  I’ve said several times this year that you can’t read too much into some results and I believe that last week’s defeats don’t hold too many clues to these team’s chances this weekend.  Both teams were on their travels against sides that can turn it on at home and did.  If either side’s result was more easily explained away it is the visitors who can offer over-zealous officials and ill-discipline as reasons for not competing as well as they can.  Stats wise, the teams are very similar with the only significant differences being Huddersfield’s propensity to run from dummy half and the amount of tackles they have made.  To counter that Wigoon have shown themselves to make more tackles around the ruck than any other side with 206 compared to the Giants’ 99, which is second from bottom in the league.  With tight games you tend to look at the line-ups and see which team has the personnel to give it an edge which pushes you towards the bigger names of Wigoon.  Huddersfield won’t mind that.  In recent years they’ve handed out some beatings to better teams that this so Trent Barrett’s name on the team sheet won’t stick too much in the mind for a side that has trampled all over reputations before.  You can’t complain about difficult to call games when they match up as well as this.  Who do you go for?  The home team that’s just been kept scoreless by a team tipped to finish in the bottom three or a squad of reputations that are not just reputations on paper?  Brian Noble won’t be thinking about maintaining his side’s unbeaten derby run next week, he’ll be aiming to bury last week and get his side playing rugby again.  Although Huddersfield have dominated this team before I worry about a side that can’t score against Harlequins when I probably shouldn’t.  Noble’s knows what to expect from Huddersfield and I think that the Giants dummy half game plays right into the hands of an outfit that hasn’t lost two games in a row since early August last year.  Wigoon by 4.

Last week’s predictions

Leeds by 14 (lost by 1
Saints by 12 (won by 1)
Bulls by 8 (won by 2)
Gaints by 4 (lost by 24)
Wigoon by 4 (lost by 12)
Wakefield by 2 (won by 2)

Some big blow outs there tagged with a perfect prediction making the overall total 17-13 (57%).

(+16) Castleford v Leeds

If you were going to pick a side to play after you’ve just been out partying, celebrating your first trophy of an anticipated quadruple, a team sat at the bottom of the league and still trying to find their feet would probably be your first choice for a holiday.  Leeds went head to head with Melbourne last week, triumphing without really being pushed, which isn’t to say that the Storm were pushed that much either.  A harder game this weekend could have been an interesting draw, instead the onus of responsibility for ending this unbeaten run falls to the team least likely to.  Castleford are at full strength after showing some spirit last week and the longer than they sit at the foot with zero points the more they will need to call upon that spirit.  Hopefully Matterson is getting across to the players the importance of confidence and of not letting depression run unchecked through their minds because this plugging away at the beginning of the season can bring benefits later this season and for the next.  You don’t need to have the RL insight of The King Of The Internet to know that Castleford could raise their game and still come down on the opposite side of a forty point winning margin with Leeds’ superior fitness levels allowing the world champions to push on once the Tigers have burnt themselves out.  It’s SKY’s game of the week and that’s probably more surprising than the result will be.  Leeds by 14. 

Saints v Hull (+10)

At any other point during the past three years this would probably have been the pick of the round’s action.  Injuries mean that this game is unlikely to be of the standard we’re used to between these teams, nevertheless there remains a stream of good forwards and backs playing for both teams.  Last weekend Hull were drilled into submission by the Giants, which was a result more consistent with this season’s performances than their sole win of the campaign so far.  The Giants have a big pack and whilst Dowes and Carvell are huge losses, facing a Saints side that is missing three international props might even be preferable to tackling Eorl Crabtree’s mucky streaks.  The lack of even a second choice starting front row for both teams should move this game away from the standard biff, bash, bosh approach, or alternatively allow players like Radford to look like world beaters with the big men missing.  Hull don’t have, what for them are key players and that appears to have been overlooked amidst the crisis that has hit the league at the start of the season.  How much of this is genuine and how much of this is Peter Sharp floundering around for more excuses after his decline from Grand Final inspirer to derby dodo?  I’m inclined to say that some of the blame can be left at the foot of the Gremlins.  Horne, Yeaman and Whiting are good club players that aren’t easily replaced and other sporadic injuries like Dykes and Berrigan disrupt team cohesion so it’s difficult for your side to build form and momentum whilst critical playmakers are out of the side.  However I look down that Hull line up and I don’t see a side that should be held to just one try in two of the four opening rounds.  What I do see is a side that, since Paul Cooke’s departure have even less moves now that he’s taken his long pass to the left and kick behind the threequarters with him.  Hull fans laughed when Saints fans referred to their side as only having those two moves and now they don’t even have them.  Sharp must be praying that Dykes and Berrigan can give him something extra in attack because he’s not been able to generate it himself and when you look at how John Kear has Wakefield playing rugby at times I think the finger is slowly moving closer to pointing at Sharp.  Saints by 12.

(+6) Catalans v Bulls

Which is worse?  No Joe Vagana or no Casey McGuire?  Which is worse three sin binnings or playing like the Bulls did last week?  All the criticisms of the Bulls half backs over recent years crashed together last week with a disorganised, dispirited and frankly lifeless outing furthering the calls for McNamara’s head.  Iestyn was spared from another ineffective eighty as Ben Jeffries was left to shoulder some of the blame whilst Paul Deacon stayed clear of the flak thanks to his kicking game.  It’s amazing to know that Paul Deacon, as a lad, collected the award for top try scorer across all age groups whilst at Hindley RL because he poses less threat to the advantage line than a mistimed Gallipoli assault.  We had Sam Burgess flying around like the new cop on the block tying to bust everyone’s ass for the most minor misdemeanours before Stuart Fielden’s cheekbone reminded him that strong defensive play requires technique as well as uncontrolled playground aggression.  Joe Vagana disappeared from the field and so with it went the Bulls chances.  Travelling to Catalans is usually a tough trip for any side but the losses of Carlaw and McGuire for about a month should make it easier for the Bulls to return to form.  Mike Potter’s audition for the Saints role isn’t exactly running smoothly and an out of sorts Bulls is a scalp waiting to be taken.  I’ve not seen or heard enough about the Dragons to give me hope that they can push the Bulls further away from the top spots and even when not performing the Bulls have that power that can get them through poor periods of form against the lesser teams.  Bulls by 8.  

(+6) Harlequins v Huddersfield

How brilliant it would be for these two teams to be in similar positions come playoff time.  Fourth at home to sixth with the only defeats coming by way of losses to Wigoon, Bradford and Leeds.  Is this the first true test of each team’s ability?  I think it is for Harlequins.  Their fans will quite rightly tell you that they fully deserve their three wins, two of which were on the road at Castleford and Hull, tell me which group of fans would not be happy about that.  Great stuff and yet I still remain to be convinced about Harlequins, to the extent that last week I backed Cas to turn them over, which they nearly did.  I don’t think I’m wrong in my continual asking of questions about Harlequins because you expect any side to come away with the points against a newly promoted side, this early in the competition anyway.  The closeness of the results suggests to me that my reservations are not unfounded which is why I look to this game for a more accurate measurement of their prospects.  The Giants can give the London forwards some opposition and their backs can stretch their legs when given the chance with some solid creative players hustling away inbetween those groups.  Interestingly on the stat front, Kevin Brown leads the competition in tackle busts and Rob Purdham tops the tackle count.  It’s unlikely that either of these facts will be critical in determining the result and Huddersfield’s two wins have been convincing whereas London’s three haven’t.  Funnily enough Castleford, Wakefield and Hull, the three teams these clubs have beaten between them have committed more errors than any other teams in the league with the exception of the Bulls who have committed one less than Hull.  Bearing that in mind, my suggestion that this is a defining match has its own question mark hovering over it but this game should allow us to appraise Harlequins position which is why I predict a third consecutive win for the Giants.  Giants by 4.

Warrington v Wigoon (+6)

The Double Ewe New Wave fans from both clubs are unlikely to have been out of primary school the last time that Warrington and Wigoon occupied second and third spot in the table and even a more seasoned supporter like myself would have to hazard a guess at it being the year that the title was handed over to the devil with Smith fiddling in exchange.  Undoubtedly game of the week and not just because of the positions in the table.  Both teams claimed the points last time out and against teams that we’re struggling to get a reliable perspective about.  Wigoon’s win was tempered by a mixed display against a team that were found in Page 492 of my dictionary hiding underneath the word ‘flat’.  It was a scrappy game with occasional glimpses of quality, Barrett’s kick for Richards being a play that could grace any game.  In the forwards Stuart Fielden returned and managed to stay clear of Sam Burgess’ persistent attempts to clean him out, whilst Thomas Leuluai has given his supporters reason to believe that he’s not a dud.  The visitor’s forward strength has been questionable in recent years and nothing has happened this year for us to state that it no longer is, leading to this game which is a game against a set of men that on paper could unleash a powerful back division if they could be arsed/more consistent (delete according to your bias).  It’s a very interesting match up for a neutral, the forwards aren’t too different, perhaps Warrington possess more power, Wigoon a higher workrate and the backs contain some of the best players in Super League in their positions with the edge going to the home side.  Mix into that balance defences that don’t appear to be that tight and we could be looking at another sixty point thriller.  It’s a difficult game to call.  Okay, the Bulls are struggling this year and were abysmal at the Stade De La Cruste but that game still needed winning, the weather was poor and we are talking about Warrington here, a side that has been only been consistent with its inconsistency.  Psychologically I see Warrington having the greater confidence and with their goal line attack it’s a test of Noble’s coaching ability to stop it now that it’s getting to be a known quantity.  Wigoon have a mobile pack, Hock has shown semblances of the form that made him an international and they can make an argument that they should be unbeaten this year without even having played well.  This is a test for both.  Can Warrington prove their mettle and at the same time expose Wigoon’s fragility or will they succumb to their designated role of pretenders and blow this opportunity for an amazing start to the season?  Wigoon by 4.  

Wakefield v Hull KR (Scratch)

A simply divine performance last week by Danny Brough almost delivered two points for Wakefield and as close as the final result was it really wasn’t an indicator of how in control the Wildcats were at Knowsley Road.  Saints truly stole the points last week and not because they were unlucky to fall behind, they were simply outplayed by a side that a couple of years ago received several nominations for ‘Best Away Team Performance’ on the Saints fans’ forum.  The fact that both teams are coming off a loss means that this isn’t my game of the week and it also means that it’s going to be difficult to predict who is likely to return to winning ways.  At the start of the season I tipped Hull KR for just missing out on the playoffs and as each week has gone on I’ve started to look at them as serious contenders for some postseason action, the result against Warrington cast doubts in my mind.  Not enough doubt though, because anyone who has seen Warrington this year will know that redzone attack is lethal and it’s no surprise that they slit somebody’s throat with it.  We know that Hull KR came back strong, possibly because of a change in attitude from the visitors, more likely Rovers recovered from being stunned.  I believe that Rovers can come away from Wakey with the two points and it is one of those fixtures that Morgan will be circling as a potential away win, which any team with playoff aspirations needs to rattle up to make it.  John Kear, on the other hand, will have a similar circling of this game with less potential and more must win.  We don’t need to analyse the implications that a loss at home to a bottom half team does for anyone so we know there’s more pressure on the home side for this game.  Honestly I feel that I should be going with Hull KR for this game, they have better players and better form behind them.  However, at Saints last week, Brough working behind his pack turned in the kind of showing that even though it didn’t take the points it should somehow entice a prediction from me for them because I owe them that.  Hull KR’s pack isn’t as weak as Saints is at the moment and I know that could be enough to turn the game their way but I can’t overlook Wakefield’s efforts.  Wakefield by 2.

Last week’s predictions;

Leeds by 10 (won by 7)Wigoon by 4 (won by 14)