XIII Oceans

Hey!  How a week changes your perspective.  Last week I couldn’t hold back my saliva when I thought about what these coming weeks has in store for us.  Turns out the first week is a mixture of death-defying victories alongside pre-ambles to possible encounters in a couple of weeks time.  Now you might not enjoy reading too much about how miserable a season your side as had and it’s tiring listening to the same old lack of RL analysis on this blog.  However, there is one thing nobody ever gets bored of reading and that’s mistakes.  I made a mistake last week.  It was a foolish one which I’m quite happy to put down to my usual playful exuberance about Super League play-off football.  There is no better time to be had watching professional rugby live in this country’s domestic calendar.  This will be our twelfth year of Super League play-off football and it has gone faster than a Keith Senior purchase order for shoulder chips.  From the epic first final when Jason Robinson’s dazzling footwork undid one of the best Leeds teams of the past thirty years to Wakefield’s heroics at Hull and from Castleford almost going all the way to the inevitable mention of “Wide to West.”  You may not like the play-off format and you’re a fool if you don’t.  You would prefer to deny us the pleasures of knockout football by the very best.  I’ve strayed from my point.  If you’re still arguing about the merits of a play-off system, stop watching the World Cup, Champions League Football, Major League Baseball, the Olympics, American Football and boxing because it’ll ruin your appreciation for round-robin leagues.

Back to my point.  My problem now is this could be the first of two encounters between Leeds and Hull KR.  Assuming results go to form and positioning there’s every chance that Hull KR and Huddersfield will have to beat Leeds and Saints twice just to progress to the Grand Final.  It will be some achievement for either to reach Old Trafford.  Why bother going 100mph this week when you could lose and end up facing a game next week just for the right to face the same side again?  Well I suppose if either team wins this week they will be at home in two weeks time with a week off inbetween.  Maybe it is more interesting than I thought it is.  The Giants and Rovers can more than upset the applecart if they win this weekend.  They will establish a golden opportunity for a new club to participate in the pinnacle of the northern hempishere’s professional domestic rugby competitions.

Leeds v Hull KR (winner advances to a home game in week 3)
Awesomeness.  Just how did Brian McClennan manage to have his team turn up one week, drift through games the next, snatch a victory after that and secure a minor premiership off the back of it?  The more cynical and loveless of us would decry such astonishment with throwaway ill-researched comments about decreasing quality instead of recognising the increased intensity.  Mentalists.  Given the way results between the champions, Hull KR and Huddersfield have played out this year we’re all probably glad that it is Michael Dobson and gang in town to give us a match that promises greater competitiveness.  Despite close defeats against Leeds, Rovers cannot feel too confident about the trip.  This Leeds team hasn’t yet hit top form which has me believing they are saving their best for last.  At their very best Leeds can burn up the grass like Lebowski and I fancy they are primed for release.  Leeds by 8.

St Helens v Huddersfield (winner advances to a home game in week 3)
Of the two tussles of the big time, this is the one filled with hope.  If you are not a Saints, Halifax or Bradford fan the chances are you will be sat on the edge of your seat this Saturday evening waiting to see if Huddersfield can break the seal.  Okay, I keep mentioning this mythical barrier between the great sides and the aspirational teams every time Huddersfield face up to a challenge.  There have been four of these challenges so far this year for Brownie’s boys.  Leeds twice, the cup semi-final and most recently, the Challenge Cup Final.  A 20% return from those games might not seem that great but it is.  You don’t suddenly start knocking off everybody on the back of an upturn in form.  What makes this game so enticing is the hurricane defence of Huddersfield fronting up again to the 20% opponent.  Now the Giants face a challenge with less pressure than they have had in any of the previous ones.  Expectation might be greater in the Huddersfield than it was before but we know this is expectation buoyed by confidence not hope.  Hope can be frail during the strongest of times.  When facing an adversary you know how to beat and who is making a bit of a mess of putting themselves in the Grand Final painting that hope becomes confidence.  For RL fans this is sure to be a treat with a possible re-match in two weeks time either at the same place or at the Galph.  The scruffbags which make up the bottom four of the play-off places might have something to say about that so let’s just savour this Saturday’s bust-up and pray that if we don’t see this contest again this year, there is something even better waiting to be served for the world’s viewers to gobble up.  Huddersfield by 2.

Wakefield v Catalans (winner advances to away game next week against one of the top four)
I try not to embellish my own ego by pointing out where I was wrong and others weren’t, however I can’t start talking about Catalans and ignore the fact that I singled out their trip to Saints as the climactic encounter in the final round of regular season games.  Saints fans will tell you it was a dull match with Saints unable to inject any sort of efficiency or enthusiasm into the game leading to a rejection of coach Potter and the boys from the terraces meerkats.  Like any set of home supporters the opposition’s win was down to the under-performance of their beloved celtic-tattooed beefchavs.  There is some truth to that assessment but as per usual such crying detracts from what was an impressive Catalans display.  How the French team would have fared against a front line Saints is irrelevant.  You can only beat what is put in front of you.  Quite.  Catalans produced some fine deft skills to embarrass Saints not only with their handling but with the result.  Can Walters’ improving touch help to bring about what wouldn’t be that big a surprise result?  It’s an interesting question and one that I would have ignored but for last week’s impressive application.  Now, we have a Wakefield side which has been good this year no doubt.  Good enough to sit in fifth?  They are.  There may be teams around them claiming to be better but Wakefield’s triumphs speak for themselves.  It is one thing upsetting a higher placed team like Rovers, it is something completely different when you end up belittling the reigning minor premiers on their own turf.  If I was looking purely at tactical nous and ability you might disagree with me and favour John Kear’s Challenge Cup history as evidence for Wakefield.  This weekend I am torn between the two.  Catalans, when they carry our their gameplan are a more effective team and one who can easily slip out of  your sight before you’ve got a foothold in the match.  I don’t see that in Wakefield.  Wakefield will bug you all the way and at home they are a difficult team to beat, so I am going for the emotion of the moment to help Wakefield through to a trip to one of the top four.  Wakefield by 2.

******GAME OF THE ROUND******

Wigan v Castleford (winner advances to away game next week against one of the top four)
Here it is, our final game of the round and what a contest in store.  Both games this year have gone to the away team although Wigan’s more recent victory is a better indicator of how this one should pattern out.  You can say nothing but good things about Castleford’s season.  Not many predicted a seventh place finish, a finish that has been helped by some great results, including their win at Wigan.  Good things at Wigan centre around the progression of Sam Tomkins and a second half of the season which has been very consistent, on the back of losing their strongest attacking forward, Hock.  Games between these two have been, over the years, great for the neutral.  Mainly I am talking about times when Castleford have upset the odds.  Who can forget the Stuart Raper led Tigers or the JPS Nikau inspired thrashing?  Memorable.  Will this be as memorable?  I think it will.  My feeling is it will still be a Wigan win even if it is closer than Noble would like.  Noble?  He is and maybe what is happening with his departure will provide Matterson with an intangible asset.  Wigan by 8.

Last round’s predictions;

Hull by 1 (lost by 3)
Leeds by 10 (won by 6)
Hull KR by 2 (lost by 14)
Castleford by 30 (won by 13)
Huddersfield by 2 (won by 32)
Warrington by 18 (won by 10)
Saints by 8 (lost by 12)

A return to the 4-3 days making it 106-72 overall.  Is anybody really bothered about the accuracy of the score predictions?

If you’re reading this on Thursday I’d just like to point you in the direction of We Are Klang’s new series on BBC3 at 10.30pm tonight.  I don’t know how they’ll translate to something as orthodox as this format.  If it’s anything like their live routine it can’t be missed.

Back to this week’s games and what a week.  Wigan steam on.  Brilliant win against Leeds.  The difference in their defence over the past month has been incredible.  Can they keep it going with Saints this week and the semi-final next?  What about Castleford sneaking back into the top half mix?  Still looks difficult for them.  As for Huddersfield, well I’m pleased to see a new kid on the block.  Can’t imagine Bradford fans are too chuffed as their own season splintered into pieces some time ago.  Over in Hull it was a terrific derby which was well deserved for those of us who have had to watch Hull more than once this year.

Due to being busy I haven’t been able to put an opening paragraph in and when I finally get free I have nothing to talk about.  Maybe I should talk about what I learned today.   Today I learned that our of last year’s England RL World Cup Squad five players proved to be damaging to the squad’s hopes, not because of their play on the field but their attitude off it.  Which five players were the negative influences which meant they were doomed to defeat before they even took the field?  Interesting isn’t it.

Hull (11th) v Huddersfield (3rd)
Not bad last week Hull.  A lot better than we thought they would play.  Wasn’t enough though was it.  In fact Hull still look like a side which hasn’t moved on in years.  Okay they threw the ball about a bit but what about that defence?  It’s as average as ever.  Top two chasing Huddersfield pose a different threat this week.  Third highest points scorers and lowest points conceded?  How has that happened?  Huddersfield are in the throes of ripping up the script, possibly starting next week and I hope they don’t leave their eye on that game for too long.  You can manage both.  Huddersfield by 2.

Salford (13th) v Wakefield (7th)
We thought it might be the case last week for Wakefield that too many huge games had them reeling and so it happened as the rejuvenated Tigers went ahead by two points.  It has to be an away win this week doesn’t it?  Salford collapsed in the second half at Warrington and McRae’s comments this week, to me, are not in proportion to his side’s efforts this year.  I don’t know what kind of criticism he’s come under this season.  His league position increase the chances of it being hard talk.  So when I say his comments I mean I’m not sure what criticism is that valid for a newly promoted team.  Makes you wonder if the team’s response will be a fiery  one.  If they do this can be a home win.  Have to go with Wakefield though.  It’s not so much Salford’s form more Wakefield’s and their need to keep up with their rivals.  Wakefield by 4.

Catalans (10th) v Celtic (14th)
Salford (A), Hull (H), Bulls (A) and Wakefield (H) before their season finale in St Helens.  Eight points is possible from those games so Catalans aren’t quite out of it yet.  Hopefully they can get plenty of locals in this one because it’s not going to be the boom weekend the hoteliers were hoping for.  Should be a comfortable win and a nice trip to France for our new Welsh brethren.  Catalans by 10.

Leeds (2nd) v Warrington (8th)
This should have been a crescendo.  Wire building up speed and Leeds trotting along, gearing up for the KO stuff.  It should have been.  We’re not really facing such a bang now.  Warrington went off the boil before regathering themselves ahead of next week’s semi-final.  Tony Smith has to be thinking Wigan will be backing up after too many tough games whereas his own side gets to test its intensity levels in preparation.  Do you expect Warrington to go at it like trench warfare?  Me?  I figure Smith will ask his side to hang in there and see if the Leeds that turns up means serious business or is still not locking together so well.  Aside from Peacock there isn’t too much good yardage work in the forwards.  It’s all a bit nip and tuck stuff at times.  If Leeds don’t up their game Smith’s men are sure to be hanging around to snaffle some scraps and a match more interesting than it should be sets up Warrington for next week.  At home Leeds can regroup after this round because they have no Challenge Cup aspirations this year.  They were knocked out.  KO’d.  Bullied out of a silverware hunt.  Time for them to set themselves for this year’s charge.  Just get through this one and top is a cert.  Leeds by 6.

Bradford (12th) v Harlequins (9th)
Hey spivs.  Looks like the bottom of the play-offs is your best bet now.  Warrington’s trip to Leeds should mean the visitors will still be in touch for the post-season action no matter what this result is.  I wouldn’t bother blaming my predictions for losses Harlequins RL fans.  It lets your team off the hook.  Your boys weren’t at the races last week.  It was one-way traffic until Saints tucked into bed and snoozed through to the hooter.  No let off this week.  If you think the Bulls are going to be going through the motions think again.  Bulls to come out fired up playing as if they can avenge everyone when it’s obviously too late.  Idiots.  Bradford by 6.

Castleford (6th) v Hull KR (4th)
Rovers almost gave it away last week.  What has happened to them?  Peaked way too early?  It has to be more than that.  They were coasting along at a competitive rate of knots and then WHAM! This is now a very tough trip.  Castleford have to be brimming with confidence thanks to their form improvement.  After our showstopper this has to be second choice of the round’s games.  A Tigers win brings Rover back into the pack and possibly out of third if Huddersfield kick on at Hull.  My logic says that Rovers are the more complete and consistent side.  Castleford’s wave of exhilaration has me wrapped in it and I’m going for Matterson to come up trumps.  Will it be enough for the play-offs?  It’s going to be very close I think.  Tigers by 4.

******GAME OF THE ROUND******

St Helens (1st) v Wigan (5th)
It has been a while since the neutrals have been able to look forward to a Saints-Wigan game.  I imagine most will be keen to watch this one.  Saints may have slipped back into gear at Harlequins RL but so have Wigan.  Noble has got a roll going.  It’s the kind of roll that he’s generated before and we know what happened at the end of that.  These are two huge games for Brian Noble and this club.  With their current form fans have every right to believe they can win both.  Why can’t they?  Their form is impressive and with Saints and Warrington experiencing indifferent form momentum is in their favour.  Test number one is right here.  I don’t believe Wigan have enough to take the Super League title.  If other sides hit a bit of form I suspect Wigan’s lack of punch may show through fatigue.  Consecutive wins could allow them some rest which Noble couldn’t sacrifice Bradford’s form for during that legendary run.  Both sides are missing key players and perhaps next week is more important too.  It doesn’t feel like it.  Wigan by 1.

Last week’s predictions;

Bulls by 6 (won by 22)
Harlequins RL by 2 (lost by 20)
Rovers by 12 (won by 6)
Huddersfield by 10 (won by 24)
Wakefield by 4 (lost by 8 )
Warrington by 6 (won by 42)
Leeds by 6 (lost by 18 )

Average.  81-62.

Gareth, Gareth, Gareth.  It is with dismay that I write about your cocaine blues, less from concern for Wigan and more from England’s point of view.  Hock remains one of the few British back row forwards that looks likely to make a break against a side.  His loss to our sport is something to, well maybe not mourn but you can be sad about it.  To cheer yourself you can always consider the plight of Wigan who still remain an enemy of the people despite their decade and a half hiatus from the pinnacle of our sport.  If the task of securing a contract extension was difficult before, Noble certainly has his work cut out and I can forsee only a Challenge Cup trophy win keeping him in his spot.

Leeds (2nd) v Bradford (11th)
Am I the only British RL fan that doesn’t side with either Queensland or New South Wales?  Choosing between rednecks and rapists is no choice at all.  What does this have to with Leeds-Bradford?  Well it’s one of those games isn’t it where you’re more interested in seeing the underdog win than a particular team.  You’d have to go back to the murky days of the first couple of Super Leagues to find a league table ladder with so many spaces between these two teams.  It’s depressing isn’t it?  First Gareth Hock now Bradford.  Where will all this calamity end?  It’s not even on TV anymore!  Get Brian Noble back in town so we don’t have to feel guilty about his coaching struggle.  He deserves some sympathy as does Steve Mc for all the injuries that his side is running into.  No coincidence that two of the worst have been of the over thirties mob.  Good signings there cocker.  Leeds by 24.

Salford (13th) v Huddersfield (4th)
Does it really matter where this calamity will all end?  Along with Hull KR and Harlequins RL, Huddersfield are the Super League New Wave and bemoaning the collapse of former powerhouses like Bradford and Wigan gives no credit to how these three smaller clubs have managed their resources well enough to have them competing for a top four spot.  Critics of competition haven’t cited any of these three teams progress as examples of lack of quality because all three of these teams have improved no end from even just a couple of years ago.  Consistency remains a problem for them as it does for Salford although the home side are still putting the effort in.  It’s all about effort when your down in the bottom section of the table.  Without effort you will get no reward.  When your skills fall short of your opponents in rugby league you are up against it.  Hustle, bustle and commitment can make a impact now like it never used to.  The best example this year has to be Wigan’s demolition of Saints at Murrayfield.  A fighting performance overcame a superior side which hasn’t always been the case in league.  Prior to the salary cap you could put in 110% effort and still be blown away by a team which turns up for five minutes in the game.  Needless to say that can still happen but the frequency by which teams are beating superior opposition through a professional attitude appears to grow increasingly greater.  This is a long commentary and maybe if Salford stuck this on the wall they would realise the Giants are hot and cold, ready for being laid flat out by a haymaker.  Backing the Giants on a regular basis this season, I’ve had mixed fortunes.  In the biggest games they’ve come up short only to resurrect their top four hopes a week later by pulling off a shock win somewhere else.  At their best Huddersfield walk this one.  The loss at home last week should have their mind focussed enough to not let this one slip away, however I’m going to plump for The Pogues.  Salford by 1.

St Helens (1st) v Celtic (14th)
The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog.  There I’ve done a longer sentence than is probably necessary for this one.  Saints by 24.

Castleford (9th) v Catalans (12th)
Terrific win in Huddersfield for Cas last week.  Given the way the Giants controlled the second half of the cup-tie I was very surprised at their victory.  The defence that kept them in that game was on display again and if they can repeat those kind of efforts there no reason they can’t hang on in here and push for seventh, maybe eighth.  Putting four points between themselves and Wigan would go some way to isolating Hull as the main threat even though I expect Wigan to move upwards.  Catalans will probably be dead and buried for this year if they lose here.  Walters’ coaching has done nothing to move his side forward.  He’s taken them backwards.  He should be given a run next year to see how he goes.  Could be a good game if the Tigers defence keeps its feet and the Dragons beef up the pack battle.  Have to go for the home win for all the reasons that you’re thinking of too.  Castleford by 4.

Hull KR (3rd) v Wigan (10th)
When I looked at this game last week I had game-of-the-round rattling inside my head.  Okay, Rovers have battered Wigan over the past couple of years.  What Rovers haven’t done is faced a caged Brian Noble side revelling amidst a siege mentality.  You know how Noble goes.  Trundling along until the chips are on the table and it’s a full house.  Not this time.  The Wigan squad could develop that siege mentality if there were circumstances to generate it.  Where are you going to get your above and beyond inspiration from for this one?  Hock’s actions are of his own doing so persuading the world and his friend is against you might be difficult for the heroes of Murrayfield to accept.  Up until Tuesday I was quietly confident that Noble would bring his troops into town and have them marching to the two points on the back of a misfiring Rovers outfit.  We should find out what impact this will have on Wigan and with a week off there’s every chance of Nobby’s Nuts giving Rovers poor form another test.  Rovers by 8.

Warrington (7th) v Hull (8th)
Close in league positions without being close in form.  Warrington came away from Spain with two points and even though Hull triumphed I just can’t see how they are going to do so here.  Typing for some games can often be a chore.  What do you write about Warrington versus Hull?  You’d have to be a fan of one of the teams involved to go into any depth about the importance of the game.    Level on points, we all fancy Warrington to move further up the table ready for a final run at the top four.  They’re clawing back some of the early front runners and could well be just two points away from fourth by the end of this weekend.  If they do it that’s some achievement already.  What price a cup final win?  Warrington by 12.

******GAME OF THE ROUND******

Wakefield (6th) v Harlequins RL (5th)
With Huddersfield at Salford there’s a real chance of a loss here acting as a stiff arm to the nose, putting four points between fifth and sixth.  Harlequins RL found out how hard it is busting open those top teams.  After an impressive opening Leeds quality shone through with wave after wave of attack blasting Harlequins RL back to basics.  How much will their confidence have taken a knock from that?  Certainly there are similar season defining possibilities for Harlequins RL as well.  Losing for them may well put third out of reach, however as pointed out last week, there is scope for a decent run to the playoffs.  This away trips represents the highest placed opposition team.  I fancy this could be a kitchen sink face-off where the home side just want it too much for a visiting team to take it.  Wakefield by 2.

Last week’s predictions;

Huddersfield by 12 (lost by 7)
Hull by 8 (won by 2)
Warrington by 2 (won by 12)
Rovers by 12 (won by 14)
Saints by 14 (won by 26)
Leeds by 6 (won by 30)

More predictable week last making it 65-50 overall.