XIII Oceans

Super League XVI – Grand Final Preview

Who’d have thunk it?  We get our dream of a first Grand Final without the top two and it’s Saints v Leeds again.  Joy! Except weirdly it is.  At last we cry.  Two teams who should be able to play without pressure, after all neither was fancied to get here.  All of us must be praying for a game to grace our spectacle.  What will we get?  What will the Grand Final with more homegrown products in than any other serve up?  Will the abundance of British talent rise to the occasion and break free from the shackles of doubt our RL community imposes?

Saints held firm against Wigan’s strong start and Leeds triumphed in the finest play off games we’ve seen.  A turn up for the books sure.  An undermining of the competition?  No.  It was rugby league of the highest order and we demand more in 2012 (if we get the chance).  During their Grand Final battles only the last one lived up to its billing.  So what’s different now?  Champion spirit.  In beating the top two we might be looking at the first Grand Final where both teams have had to excel the week before the Grand Final.  Normally at least one of the teams have been heavily favoured to get through without having to hit 100%.  Last Friday they had to fly and did.  This is why we have hope for this game.  Great form, little expectation and hopefully the freedom to express themselves as champions so often do, with victory.

Before previewing the game I’d like to thank you for taking the time to read the blog.  Some weeks it is a lot easier to write than others so please don’t be offended if my script on your team isn’t that long in a particular week.  For those of you that may be interested I will continue to blog during the off season on cinema and music.  Thanks again for reading and enjoy the game.

St Helens v Leeds

Head-to-Head
Leeds 16 St Helens 30
St Helens 42 Leeds 16

Threequarters
An area where both teams are closer than people think.  Common perception is Leeds have more quality here and Ryan Hall is arguably the stand out player on show.  Is there really that big a difference overall though?  Neither team is starting with what it expected its first choice pairings and you can make an argument that Meli and Shenton more than compensate for the gap between the sets of wingers.  Watkins has been named in the 19 but we all know it’s a risk dropping him into the biggest game of the season without a game or two under his belt.  Both full backs have shown the signs of advancing years for more than just this season and whilst Wellens has performed well in the play offs his lack of speed at the back has proven to be a point of attack for Leeds in Grand Finals.  Webb might be an accident waiting to happen when he hasn’t got the ball but with it he still remains a critical point of Leeds’ attack.  His pace means he is far more influential in Leeds game plan than Wellens and that helps to link up the play with a perceived stronger attacking threat outside.  Leeds.

Halves
Sinfield I have huge respect for and if he lifts the crown on Saturday I think he puts himself in the position of being the best loose foward this competition has seen.  We cannot underestimate his importance.  With McGuire alongside him there is more than just experience in the Leeds halves.  Despite the difficult season McGuire’s had, he’s fit at the key point in the season and has shown he’s is more than capable of coming up with some magic.  Saints’ combination is maturing.  Lomax’s agility works well with Gaskell’s more structured approach to the game.  Worryingly for Leeds the Saints half backs had strong showings against Wigan adding credence to Simmons’ early season comments about having to play a constrained game plan due to injuries and inexperience.  Both kids have played so well that the favourites can afford to leave out Leon Pryce for a Grand Final.  Experience and know how against the unexpected.  Even.

Forwards
Plenty to mull over here.  Defensively Saints appear to be the stronger of the two particularly down the middle where they have looked stronger in their past two games than at any point in the season.  I don’t see the same physicality in the Leeds forwards on a consistent basis.  In a one off?  Well JJB (who I picked in my own Super League Dream Team for this year) has been a real driving force for me and he was a key player in the victory at Warrington.  Throw in TMFMISL, Delaney (been great since he moved into the pack) then Leuluai and Leeds should be able to raise their game in this area to compete.  In the win at the HJ Danny Buderus was exceptional both in distribution and putting the defence on the back foot.  In the previous Grand Final contests Leeds’ speed around the PTB has enabled them to make the metres when their forwards are out-matched.  For Leeds Peacock needs to roll back the years because Saints have, in Graham, Roby, Puletua, Clough and LMS, five players who can top the 100m mark and control of that battle will be more important that any other I think.  Saints.

Intangibles
Experience.  Experience has to be first here.  Plenty in both ranks but Leeds have it where it counts, in the play makers.  Leeds midfield trio has the secret.  They know how to win.  Saints might be pinning more of their hopes on the pack but they will need those two halves to ignore the pressure.  Can they?  I’ve seen nothing to suggest they can’t and when your forwards are on top it’s a lot easier to play.  Have Saints really been tested by Wigan or were Wigan out on their feet?  After the Catalans game I thought Wigan were back on it and last week they still pushed Saints even when they had no right to.  Do Leeds have enough left in the tank for one more push?  We won’t know until Saturday night.

Leeds’ form is what has raised expectations for Saturday.  It has been a great run and the unseating of Warrington says this is not the team we knew two months ago.  This is a  team with champion players lifting themselves when they know they needed to.  Can they do it one more time?  Very hard this.  My logic tells me neither Huddersfield nor Warrington have the same oomph going forward as Saints and that asks not only a big question of Leeds but a new one.  If Saints get on a roll, in Gaskell they have a boot which can put the game deep into Leeds territory and that will require Wigan levels of resilience to beat it.  My more intuitive side calls it differently.  It says the experience and leadership in the Leeds team will mean that even when pinned down there will be volunteers scrambling to take the ball up to take the strain.  Leeds have a champion spirit within them.  Will it be enough to combat Saints?  Draw, with a golden point winner…