XIII Oceans

Super League XVI – Qualifying Finals

We’ve reached the finals series and I thought I would present the overall stats and look, perhaps more importantly, the records of each teams against the other title contenders.

Super League XIV stat comparisons:

References to games won are based upon Super League matches only unless stated otherwise;

******GAME OF THE ROUND******

Catalans Dragons v Hull KR
Despite only beating top eight opposition five times, Hull KR are unbeaten in their last two games against top eight opposition, Saints and Catalans. We can say those final two wins might have been influenced by the security the opposition had in the play off race but we should not ignore them. They must have given the formerly dispirited and descending Rovers a reminder that this isn’t over yet. Somebody has to come from outside the top three over the next decade to win the Grand Final. Will it start this year with Rovers? As great as it would be to see a team ride the waves like that Rover don’t have it. Too conservative a game plan for me. They do have enough to win a couple and progress, possibly even getting to the semis, however, of the two I see Catalans as being more likely to make a mark. Not only do Catalans have a better record against the top four teams than Saints, they have also beaten each of the top three (and two of them were as visitors at Warrington and Wigan in rounds 8 and 9). This is the only match of the four where I can’t see a clear winner because of that late Rovers surge. In reality that rush of form is probably a bit glossy and shouldn’t be too much for the Dragons to handle. Keep it close for sixty minutes and it’s up for grabs. Catalans.

Warrington v Huddersfield
Warrington haven’t lost since round 17 and similarly haven’t lost against a top eight team since being defeated at home to Hull in round 12. Of the top four, only Huddersfield have beaten Warrington in the league and they’ve done it twice although neither win was at the HJ. However Huddersfield are 1-4 in their last five against play off opposition and have lost their last three against the teams above them. The second half of the season has been a struggle for the Giants with Brough’s absence hitting them harder than any other injury in the competition and now with a loss to Leeds they have been in the same scenario as Saints i.e. able to rest players at the expense of in-game continuity. Can Brown get away with that against a Warrington team which has been both successful and entertaining? Huddersfield have tried to be more expansive themselves but with a pack that is better without the ball than with it the backs, who have still done well, haven’t had the space Warrington have had. I’m relying on my perception here but my memory recalls too often seeing Huddersfield pushing the pass wide against a defence which is set against width because of the lack of real pressure down the middle. I’d love to see what B&B could do with a couple of big running forwards in that pack. Warrington.

Wigan v St Helens
In four clashes this season (including the cup semi-final) Saints have won none. Of the top four Saints have the weakest record against play off and top four opposition and have yet to better the top two this year. Saints sole victory against a top four team remains the late season win over a Giants team who had lost four consecutive road games prior to that game. None of these facts bear well for Saints who will be hopeful that the rest period has allowed key personnel to be fit for the run-in. In the four games between them Wigan have dominated one of the games they one, controlled sixty minutes of the draw and had to dig deep in the other two to fend off Saints momentum. That last point is quite prescient because Wigan have been able to absorb the best Saints have before dancing over the try line to win. Playing well and not winning can provide encouragement but when it’s happened more than once it becomes a concern and the way your coach prepares the team mentally for the game becomes more important. Both Maguire and Tony Smith have demonstrated they can do this and if Saints are to progress to another Grand Final Simmons will have to do it for the first time this year. Maguire overcame Warrington in the cup and Smith bounced back by bustling past a seemingly unstoppable Wigan in the minor premiership decider. Saints need their coach to come through at least once to reach Old Trafford and as much as it could be more likely this week I do not forsee that. Wigan.

Leeds v Hull
Leeds only win against top four opposition was at Huddersfield in the final round of the regular season. Unsurprisingly Hull have the weakest record against play off teams, managing just four wins, and have been beaten with room to spare by Leeds on three occasions (one a cup tie). That’s an inability to go further if you ask me. Despite playing in every round of the cup Leeds have avoided folding, sneaking in ahead of Catalans and getting a home draw against a Hull team which saw its run of fifty point hauls come to an end last Friday. There was a real gulf in class against Warrington and that’s an indicator of just how difficult it is to make the Grand Final now that the top two are focusing in on the title. The stats make interesting reading for Hull. They are the second least penalised team in the comp, rank second in offloads, third in tackle busts, fourth in clean breaks and fifth in points conceded. They should be higher but when you look down the fixture list though Hull have blown away a few of the lower placed teams whilst on their travels (scoring fifty points three times) and I think they must be padding those stats out. Neither Leeds nor Hull have threatened the top four and I can’t say I fancy Hull to go any further. Leeds have their number and should be able to get something from this match to inspire them in their trip to a losing top four team where, if Kevin Sinfield fires, anything can happen. Leeds.

Finally, Agar to Wakefield and Kear to Batley? I would love to know what recruitment processes some of our Super League teams have. Was Agar (and this isn’t a campaign against him because every man deserves to make a living) really the best applicant out there? The Rooney rule is getting a mention now in football but it truly is amazing that in this day and age I can call into question recruitment processes in sport. Usually I find that sports teams hover closer to the cutting edge of performance management (tremendous attention given to individual welfare, motivation, wellbeing and psychology) so it is incredible that clubs do not look to apply the same rigour when it comes to actually bringing in those people they expect to propel them further. With players it’s a lot easier to see their impact and character but with coaches/managers? If I’m entrusting the responsibility for performances on the field to one man I want to ensure that I was bringing in the best person available. By not throwing your net wide you restrict your choice and why would you do that? The greater your choice the more likely you are to be successful and its something which goes ignored when you rely on a managerial merry-go-round.