XIII Oceans

Here we are then. One week to go and it might well be the most eagerly anticipated match-ups in play-off history. We have two knockout games instead of the usual one. Last week Huddersfield’s season tailed off as Catalans played the game, controlled it and let the home side give in first. It was first rate performance in a game I thought was unfairly criticised. There may have been plenty of penalties in the opening thirty minutes but there was some exciting rugby as well with big breaks lighting up the match until Catalans score put them out of sight. If the opposition had been Leeds people would be wetting themselves about it.

A trip to Leeds was Catalans reward which means the only team left capable of beating Leeds play on Saturday night. Which team that is we’ll find out. Both Saints and Wigan can usually be relied on to provide resistance to Leeds even if recent Old Trafford battles have seen Leeds come home with the silver. At Rovers, Wigan never really looked to be in too much trouble and have set up the dream fixture on the ball of the universally successful club call.

Leeds vs Catalans
Of the two matches this is the one which attracts the least interest, not because we don’t follow Catalans because everybody does. It is the ominous feeling surrounding the game that the French have come as far as they can and now face the champions. Leeds aren’t champions by accident and although this season hasn’t seen them hit the heights they look very good from where I am sat. Catalans will need every bit of their recent defensive showings to even compete here. In the past three weeks the Dragons have given us performances not dissimilar to a top four team with serious Grand Final aspirations. Had they been at home for any of those games their probability of success on Friday would increase. This is not based on any sensible reasoning, merely the logic that teams looking to win away from home for four games in a row against statistically superior opposition come unstuck eventually. From where do you see Catalans breaking this Leeds side? Adam Mogg continues to be a vital cog and contributor and he is capable of being a key factor down the flanks for Walters. Casey and Bosc definitely give the back line some structure and momentum when they have the forwards pushing the defensive line backwards. Against Leeds they are less likely to get that. Over the past three seasons or so Leeds have perfected their tackling technique to the point of being the most effective wrestlers in the game. This is not a complaint in the manner that Walters’ comments about Huddersfield was. In the past two Grand Finals, Leeds’ game plan has centered around forcing ball carriers onto their backs with good defensive weight. Catalans do not strike me as a team with zip in the tackle which may explain Walters’ fears against the Giants. If you watch Leeds you can see they aren’t unnecessarily scrappy in the tackle. They are great with their timing in relation to what the referee is looking for. Pushing the boundaries would be an easy comment because I don’t see it in their style. A set Leeds defence is too strong for Catalans and coupled with Leeds’ freshness it has to be too much for the Dragons. Leeds by 12.

St Helens vs Wigan
What’s your prediction for the attendance on Saturday? It might not be the first time the old enemies have squared off for a place in the Grand Final with the loser going home. It might be the first time both sets of fans have been going in expecting to reach the Grand Final. If you haven’t heard Saints are at their weakest now since, well since 1997 by the sound of it. Despite looking much improved in their last outing at home to Huddersfield Wigan are running hotter at the moment. I can see how people have arrived at this opinion. Wigan have bowled over Castleford and Hull KR in the play-offs after being butchered at the Galph so it makes sense to point to those two comfortable wins and compare them favourably to facing Saints on their own turf. What have Saints got that Castleford and Rovers haven’t? Saints, after all, have lost more games at home this season for at least five years and, without consulting the record books, you probably have to go back to the last century to find a similar record of defeats. This means that Wigan confidence is not wild-eyed optimism. The visitors are battle-hardened with those two games but I ask you to look at those two games. Were they really the type of game that gives you irresistible armour against a team like Saints? Critics comment on the lack of cohesion when Saints have the ball in their hands whilst ignoring their other strengths such as defence and forward power. Is there a better yardage making set in the league? I don’t think there is and it will take an immense effort from Wigan to hold a side as fresh at Saints. The week off might take an edge off the attack but in both play-off games I thought Wigan looked ready for pushing on the back foot in the final third of the game. Neither Castleford nor Rovers was able to force the play well enough to test out Wigan. It will take a strong first half with a couple of tries lead for Wigan to win this. I don’t foresee a shoot out and if Wigan are to win it will be on the back of hard work, grit and determination, problem is I see Saints having more. Saints by 8.

Play-off predictions so far 2-4.