XIII Oceans

Don’t tell me you thought Harlequins RL and Bradford were going to overturn Leeds and Saints?  Only a man who recognises long gambling odds and puts a couple of quid on would have been backing those two last week.  It was a crazy weekend of results as Huddersfield were pumped hard at Warrington and Salford reverted back to Salford.  Now it’s the biggest weekend of the year for rugby in Scotland and a chance for those border farmers to come and marvel at seeing an oval shaped ball moving horizontally instead of vertically and over the whitewash and not the stands.  Super League has arrived in Edinburgh.  Let the real Highland Games commence.

Salford v Harlequins RL
The scrappy game we expected materialised at The Willows last week and there’s every chance of a repeat in the weekend’s opener.  Salford have conceded more points than anyone else, Harlequins RL plundered two points at Leeds in one of its finest results of recent years.  Can you really go against Harlequins RL after that result?  If they were playing someone better you would consider it without it being a deciding factor.  Had Salford triumphed over Hull it would be a consideration.  Salford didn’t so their defence should be more accommodating for Randall, Orr and Dorn than Leeds was.  Harlequins RL by 12.

Wakefield v Bradford
The pick of Saturday’s games.  Wakefield disappointed at home in round eleven when really they should have been registering a double over Wigan.  They simply couldn’t hold onto the points machines that are the Wigan threequarters, well Ainscough anyway.  One thing you can count on with John Kear though is when you beat his side he makes adjustments so that if you’re facing his side after a defeat you can anticipate something different in attitude and application.  It’s what makes this a potentially memorable Murrayfield moment because they are facing a team who got some just reward last week with one of the greatest Super League comebacks.  The Bradford Bulls, in dismantling the invincibility of Saints a week after all their fans were saying they would go unbeaten for the rest of the year, showed us there is life yet in this side.  Sam Burgess was immense in the victory putting himself about the field with and without the ball.  It was a performance best underlined by the Bulls chasing down on Saints on the last tackle for a 50m loss. Metaphors in league are difficult to find on the field, however Saints flippant approach to getting out of the situation contrasted perfectly to the Bulls rigorous hunting down of the ball.  I think this is a tight one and as much as I might malign the appointment of Steve McNamara it was pleasing to see him relieve some of that pressure in the face of a rapidly diminishing gloryhunting spectator set.  One thing that hasn’t gone unnoticed this year is McNamara’s failure to do a Morgan and criticise other factors than his players.  Last year McNamara too easily reverted to allowing his players off the hook by letting comments go about the ref, pitch or whatever.  This year he’s not given his side that leeway and I think last week was a perfect example of how the players took responsibility for their own performance. Keep it up.  Bulls by 4.

Wigan v St Helens
Murrayfield provokes fond memories for Wigan fans when seven years ago they won their last trophy.  A career best performance from Kris Radlinski helped his side beat a much-fancied Saints side who hadn’t looked that impressive in the games leading up to the final.  Does last week’s upset against the Bulls put Saints into that sort of position for this one?  Seeing as the Maundy Thursday clash was a game awash more with enthusiasm than skill you lean towards the majesty of Saints with their firepower/defence and say that there was fatigue in Saints that day.  Now if I’m not mistaken I recall Saints fans saying exactly the same thing when they beat a poor Hull side and when they lost last week with  Martyn Sadler chipping in too, saying it looked like the World Cup finally caught up with Saints.  I’m sorry Saints fans but you need to face up to this competition being harder than any of the others you’ve walked away with.  Wigan’s contribution to the Easter game was ignored by some and since that game they have quietly gone about tweaking their attacking play with the next great saviour of Wigan rugby league, Ainscough, receiving much praise.  Mick Potter insinuated that he might just ask the youngster if he’s prepared to rise to this occasion.  It’s a basic tactic and telling him you’re going to do it, for some, is setting yourself up for a fall.  Noble will have had Mungo under the bomb helping to reduce the risk.  I see it as basic psychology.  Saints have Francis ‘The Excitement Machine’ Meli in their line-up and Potter obviously feels he needs to balance things up so where Meli can be rip-roaring with the ball and Ainscough a low-gravity bullet he also is a weak link in some circumstances.  Will Mungo be the same?  We’ll see from those first couple of kicks.  Lose one of those in the air and it’ll take some resilience from the chubby stubby to get himself back into the game.  Anyway, I wasn’t going to write much for this preview because Saints have the sign over Wigan but there’s something special about Murrayfield for Wigan fans.  In the fourteen derbies following Murrayfield, Wigan lost only twice until Daniel Anderson came in.  Since then they’ve won won as many as they have Super League titles.  Can Murrayfield have the same impact as it did all those years ago or will revenge be a dish best served by putting sixty on them?  Saints by 12.

Huddersfield v Celtic
I don’t predict a riot.  Huddersfield by 20.

Hull v Castleford
This is a tricky one.  Hull have been rubbish in recent weeks and Castleford have limped into this one after some great early season exertions.  A trip to Celtic isn’t quite as battery recharging as a home visit by them and the Tigers had to mine deep to avoid being the Crusaders’ first victims.  Celtic were ten minutes away from the win.  Castleford won’t be shown the same mercy although Hull can be generous at times.  The result at Brewery Field could indicate the Tigers are still carrying a lot of knocks and those Hull fowards will make this physical if they can control the ball.  If there’s an unwritten rule that teams which take chances with the ball should be rewarded for their enterpise then this would mean Castleford would pick up the points.  There isn’t and we’ve seen so many times in Super League, situations were style, class and grace can be overturned by grit, determination and gifted handling errors.  What am I writing?  Really I’m not that interested in writing about this game because I don’t forsee Hull doing anything different to what they did any other time.  It is that they have Plan A and try hard to get close to achieving that plan in the hope that when they do they’ll be taught how to pass the ball beyond the first receiver.  In fact, just a few weeks ago, in the derby, they did a move that I criticised them for last year and probably the year before.  With about a minute or two left on the clock they ran a fourth tackle play that was to a prop (Dowes I think it was) who was chugging up field as if it was the first minute of the game.  To do that move once can be a mistake.  To have a fourth tackle rush play with a prop as a staple part of your game plan tells me that the players are completely brain dead and devoid of any sort of RL inspiration.  It’s damning and sadly it’s true.  Of course Hull will win by flinging the ball around like Andy Farrell in training for Great Britain (it’s the only reason I can think of why he started for us at stand off) and win.  If they do I’ll happily write any team’s next preview (including flippant writing that can act as motivation for your side) with a bias of your choice, for a small fee.  Castleford by 6.

Catalans v Leeds
I preferred the previous year’s formats where local derbies were the norm and not this newly revamped set-up.  Imagine Leeds trying to back up against the Bulls after their win last week, having also lost on Good Friday to them.  Similarly, Catalans burgeoing Eighty Minute War rivalry with Harlequins RL has been regularly overlooked on magic weekends despite producing some thrilling games.  Perhaps I’m dismissing Catalans chances too quickly.  Adam Mogg may make his first start this year, Greg Bird is back (I know but if he has no qualms in assaulting his girlfiend then I can’t see how he would be troubled by a court case) and Leeds are in their worst run of form for a few years.  Even in such form it’s going to take a major effort from the fowards because you can’t expect Mogg to be anything like match ready and without Bosc a lot of responsibility rests with Bird.  I just can’t see it.  Leeds by 18.

************GAME OF THE ROUND************

Warrington v Hull KR
Warrington are up against it on Sunday.  With Adrian Morley, Louis Anderson and Lee Briers missing from the starting side I’d be surprised if their new found confidence carries over into this one.  Slowly, Tony Smith is turning his team around.  Smith knows what he’s doing when he says he has to tackle the culture at Warrington and turn it around.  Employing sports psychologists to help him out, he will turn this situation around.  Trust me on that.  Rovers are still striving for recognition despite sitting in second place.  Another win here is unlikely to put distance between themselves and the sides a point below them.  A loss could see them dropping out of the top three, which their fans would do well to remember how that wouldn’t be a disaster.  Forwads, forwards, forwards for this one.  No Morley and no Fozzard (two players who I have always thought had a similar running style) might shift some of the focus away from that battle and allow the teams to spring their outside backs.  I’m still undecided on this one.  I know Smith will turn his side around.  What I don’t know is if those two recent results were more attributable to shoddy opposition.  If these teams play like I’ve imagined them to, and that means playing to a standard that has dictated their results rather than capitalised on the losers, then I can see this being a belter.  Hull KR by 2.

Last week’s predictions.

Leeds by 18 (lost by 17)
Saints by 20 (lost by 4)
Salford by 6 (lost by 4)
Castleford by 6 (won by 12)
Wakefield by 6 (lost by 14)
Huddersfield by 4 (lost by 22)
Hull KR by 10 (won by 34)

Ouch!  2-5 week making it 41-34.