XIII Oceans

Okay, so the playoff games haven’t exactly been thrillers this year.  We can’t have that every year.  What we can have is great performances and nobody can stand and say that last week’s victors did not turn up the heat on their opponents with some very impressive play.  On Friday night Saints looked like they had an extra pair of lungs as they blew the disjointed Rhinos off the turf at Cabriolet Toilets Park.  It was a very impressive showing matched the following night by a different but nevertheless exhilarating Wigan trip to Perpignan.  It’s a long time since a Wigan side has been as ruthless in taking their chances and bodes well for Friday night’s epic encounter.

Leeds v Wigan (+8 )

Perhaps the most disappointing and concerning aspect of Leeds’ play in their three defeats to Saints has been the performances of the half backs.  Last week McGuire did a lot of work from first receiver which isn’t a worry but the lack of interjection from Rob Burrow was.  Is Burrow injured?  He wasn’t anywhere to be seen last week and he must be prominent tonight, if only for England and Her Majesty’s sake.  Burrow’s absence isn’t solely to blame for what many fans have identified as no coordinated structure of attack when Leeds haven’t been able to push through the middle.  During the cup semi-final Leeds were forced into chasing the game, forcing the ball to a point where it looked like they might have pushed the momentum in their favour.  It didn’t but I don’t think its effectiveness should be ignored in reminding us of the quality that this side can produce.  The danger, like all off-the-cuff play is that when it becomes a staple of your attack errors will eventually follow.  Leeds fans know that their side needs to apply themselves professionally and avoid panicking if they’re not able to break down the Wigan defence by physical willpower alone.  The lack of a strong kicking game impacts upon that effectiveness and Leeds need a better showing from Sinfield in that department because Barrett’s kicking game won’t spare them as easily.  Barrett’s towering bombs have to remain a worry for Leeds with Webb still to convince us of his bomb squad stripes.

Wigan, on the other hand, were brilliant last week, of that there is no argument.  They went into the match as underdogs, could quite easily have been overwhelmed by Catalans blistering opening quarter and instead took the Dragons apart with some brilliant attacking and support play.  It was quite simply the best attacking performance I’ve seen from a Wigan side since that final spurt against the Bulls in last year’s playoffs.  Led by Trent Barrett, last seen on the back of a milk carton, Wigan sucked up every half break and turned it into six points, destroying Potter’s and the neutrals’ hopes of a French presence at Old Trafford. What chance a repeat?  Well Mick Potter said that last week’s first half was relatively slow and I’m in agreement with him.  Ganson allowed for a lot of lying on and fiddling around at the PTB for both sides and you can be sure that the pace at which Leeds play the game will place a lot of pressure on the referee to penalise spoiling tactics.  Defensively Catalans were surprisingly weak in making the tackles after a strong, physical start.  I thought similar was happening last week with Leeds at Saints, not so much falling off tackles but once the initial onslaught was weathered Leeds looked a bit lost when they realised they couldn’t intimidate Saints.  If Wigan can survive that they can be in with a very good chance given how things have shaped out between these two teams in the past couple of years.

I’ve been accused of overrating Wigan this year with some of my predictions yet here they stand, one game away from the Grand Final, finishing third as a minimum (where I predicted they would finish).  In that prediction, Stuart Fielden was singled out as a key player for Wigan and he topped 100m against Catalans.  I remain to be convinced about Fielden’s apparent resurgence as a prop forward force.  His old upright style, on which he based a tremendously powerful game, is no longer effective.  Where Fielden has enjoyed success recently is when he’s hit the line with a low centre of gravity, not allowing himself to be thrown around, which has happened all too often in the past eighteen months.  Leeds will not show him enough respect to let him bring that upright game back and so that success for Barrett is going to have to come from Paleaaesina who was first rate last week.  Wigan are quite clearly a different side when he is dragging his side down the pitch.

Simiarly, Leeds I tipped to repeat as Champions with Rob Burrow identified as their key player and I’ve already mentioned him above.  Now I think I would change my mind and pick out Brent Webb whose injection into the line is not unlike Leon Pryce’s at Saints.  Webb is expected to play and has to if Leeds are going to go all the way.  When Webb comes flying onto the pass he presents that similar double threat of Pryce of busting through or the cut out pass wide.  It’s a critical weapon for Leeds but I’m not sure it’s as critical as Jamie Peacock is.  In defeat last week, and with what most fans would call an underpar performance, Peacock still totalled over 100m with the ball.  Leeds need his yardage because none of their other forwards are what you would call regular 100m grunts.  Pushing Wigan’s defence on the back foot, playing the ball quickly (which Leeds do) and removing that carry-over confidence from last week will not be achieved by the pack sitting back and Peacock is the lead for that.  I’m guessing that most people will say that he’s looking a bit tired and jaded.  That’s nonsense.  I’ve seen this guy look like this before, usually two minutes into an end of season test match, only to see him go blasting through on one of his mountainous runs through the opposition.

It isn’t just Leeds and Wigan fans that are eager about this match.  It has everything there to be a repeat of Carney’s Game and it might just.  However, I did say that it would take a momental effort for Wigan to win last week which they responded with.  Now they require a carbon copy with the grooves in their favour.  In the opposite corner we have what can be a harsh reality to playoff dreams that of the gap between the best and the rest.  Form may just mean that there’s no need for a ferry between the two but the speed of last week’s Friday night game was far in excess of that in France.  If Leeds force the pace and put Ganson on the sport around the PTB I think that speed will be enough to beat a committed and enthusing Wigan side.  Leeds by 6.