XIII Oceans

After a weekend of punches both on and off the field, in colours and out of colours, it’s a pleasantry to not have to think about disgraceful behaviour damaging our sport further and instead allow ourselves to cheer and jeer said villains in round 22.  Only three teams are out of the playoff picture for this season and Catalans Dragons could well have sole ownership of first spot by Saturday night.  It is the final straight now, six full rounds left with nine teams still chasing those six finals spots.  Sadly for Harlequins the indiscretions on the pitch by the Quintits might well have destroyed their slim chance of grabbing sixth but we’ll see.

Wigan v Saints
Kicking off perhaps the best looking round of fixtures this year is the competition’s most illustrious.  Two one-sided encounters earlier this season undermine expectations of this being the competitive derby we’re all used to.  Wigan fans won’t need reminding that they’ve only managed one win against Saints since 1066 and there won’t be too many anticipating a repeat of last year’s pain-relieving win.   Saints’ unbeaten run has to come to an end at some point and with this game and a semi-final next week you’d be inclined to think that two hard back-to-back games will contain at least one brick wall.  And it’s brick wall stuff that Wigan will probably have to come up with to create that juddering halt.  When the home side have performed well this year it’s been when they tightened their defence and upped its physical intensity.  If Wigan fail to meet Saints in that collision they won’t get on top and that’s just to start.  From there it’s a case of converting chances and more importantly maintaining that intensity for the duration of the game, which they have been able to do against Leeds. All too often against Saints it’s been a case of slumber time in the opening quarter of the game and before they’ve known it, they’re two scores down, shoulders slouched, individual running taking precedence over gameplans and infectious bouts of dropsy.  There is quality in the Wigan line-up (admittedly nowhere near as much as the top two) and I keep referring to one man who carries at lot of Wigan’s hopes.  This game is no different.  Gareth Hock continues to propel Wigan towards the playoffs and he must rank as one of the most influential players in this competition.  If he fires he doesn’t just give his side impetus, he gives them a destructive game that produces breaks or second phase possession.  Without moving the defence about Wigan’s attack becomes pedestrian, neutralising any zip that Barrett can muster on the ball.  There are a lot of ifs in the mix for this tussle.  Too many?  Probably.  There are also lots of reasons why Noble must have his men fired up for this too; the chance to put a big spanner in their rivals trophy hopes, put them in pole position for fourth, possibly reigniting the chase for third and more importantly giving them the self-belief they’ll need to avoid popping out during their first appearance at the postseason plate.  For me though, Wigan remaining patchy and there’s a chance that Saints can push through these two games, not because of their own form but the opposition’s lack of.  Has defeat strengthened Wigan’s focus for this one or has it removed what little confidence they might have picked up from beating Leeds?  You suspect that being at home should be enough to fire up Wigan even if Saints are their daddies they know they can come out against anyone there.  Nothing to lose Wigan, except pride.  Saints by 10.

Catalans Dragons v Leeds
Who isn’t angry about the game of the round not being on SKY?  Appalling.  This clash reminds me of Super League I when the Bulls hosted Wigan.  Do you remember the feeling watching that game?  That victory, more than the one over eventual champions, Saints, signalled the arrival of the Bulls as a true force in world rugby, both codes.  Amazingly, in three years, Catalans are doing the same and giving expansionists multiple orgasms.  A Dragons victory on Saturday really cranks that up, titillating the futurists as well as delivering what non-Leeds supporters will predictably enjoy.  At the same time, Mick Potter’s departure to Saints has those same people worrying for a potential, that hopefully isn’t peaking for just this season.  Whenever I have seen the Dragons face one of the considered titans of the competition their successes have been when the opposition has lost their fluidity.  Leeds go to Perpignan with fans confused about their fluidity which allows you to drift towards the Dragons but I am not so sure.  Doubting Catalans is common for me (tipped to win in only 50% of their matches) but we are talking about a Leeds side which may arrive in its recent meandering mental state or one responding to Brian McClennan’s coaching.  The champions need the latter for the next two games or that early season invincibility will be nothing more than a longer version of the Super League VIII Saints.  At some point during the remaining few months Leeds have to return to their brilliant early season form, there’s no way that a side which has played as good as they have can slowly become dormant.  Is what’s happening similar to the tail off that Saints had last year after their great start?  Are Leeds starting to run out of gas?  I don’t think that’s the case, more just that drop in form you get at some point during the year.  Catalans might be a big side capable of getting on top of you and Leeds forwards are not as penetrating as you might think, Peacock the obvious exception, and you need that punch in the middle of the park against the Dragons to get your quick play-the-balls and push them on the back foot.  It’s in this mode that other teams have had success, forcing Catalans to play the boundaries of the rules.  Leeds have that speed in their play and whilst they can be devastating with half a chance, over in France you need to be in the game for the full eighty minutes.  This is a very difficult match to call.  How much impact is Adam Mogg’s absence going to play?  Do you go with Catalans’ form and home advantage or take a chance on the double-chasing champions having enough class to collect enough tries as their defence holds firm?  Dragons by 2.

Huddersfield v Warrington
Five wins from six has paper talk putting James Lowes in the driving seat for that vacant Wolves job, which was bound to happen at some point before the end of the season.  A closer look at those results reveals that most of those wins were in games that Wire should have won anyway.  Harlequins RL away was the trickiest but three games were at home, against slumping Wakefield, slumping Rovers and a Bulls side that had just lost at Huddersfield.  There was a last ditch win in a scrappy affair at the KC in there too and Lowes has done well to steady things, building confidence at the same time.  I’m sure he’ll be gaining confidence himself with each win and this is a tricky battle and the kind that he can’t afford to lose if he wants to secure that job.  My thoughts on him and the Warrington vacancy haven’t changed because this is a prime time job, handling a big wage bill and so requires a man with good first grade experience.  There’s no point ploughing that argument about giving people an opportunity because he’s got that and with a home game against Leeds after the cup semi, followed by a trip to Saints we could just as easily be dismissing his chances if he’s on the back of three defeats in a row.  The first of those three defeats could come this weekend against a Giants side that is tepid when facing the big men yet very competitive amongst the scavengers.  At the moment the Wolves are hovering just above that pit of coyotes giving this trip to the Galpharm added importance by the fact that the Wolves will go six points clear of seventh if they win, virtually assuring them of a finals appearance.  A Giants win, on the other hand, drags the Wolves back into a fight for fifth with a threat of still being able to lose out on sixth.  In their last home game the Giants dragged the Bulls back down with a one point win and you fancy that they are capable of doing that with the Wolves who have had problems with their Yorkshire trips this year, with their four wins being by a combined total of eights points (two two point wins, a win by three and a one point triumph).  Admittedly one of those victories was over the Giants, who they’ve beaten twice already this year.  Those Giants sides did not have the same kind of mindset and although their improvement probably isn’t substantial enough to be too strong for Warrington I expect the home team to be difficult to beat there.  If the visitors are to win this game, it has to be another one of those scraping results and I’m not sure the Giants will be compliant in this.  At the Galpharm you always expect your hosts to come back at you at some point, which is something that’s happened on Warrington’s travels all year and with confidence slowly building I think that Wire’s confidence is more vulnerable to collapsing than it is building towards a Grand Final run, at the moment.  Giants by 2.

Bradford v Wakefield
In a round of fifty-fifty matches where four of the six visiting teams are as strong, if not stronger than the home ones, Odsal hosts what could be a fairly timid affair as the Kear factor is kept in the box for another week at least.  Hold this game a month ago and this is a contender for game of the round.  Now though, Wakefield’s capitulation from a strong fourth place to being in danger of falling out of playoff contention altogether indicates a welcome home win for the Bulls.  This season just hasn’t started for Steve McNamara’s men, every time they appear to get a couple of momentum wins under the belt, an unexpected defeat turns up or Leeds.  Here’s one of those games that can stimulate a mini-revival with a trip to Harlequins RL after semi-final weekend before their next game…at Leeds.  This stop-start season has a light run-in as both Hull sides visit Odsal with The Jungle the venue for the Bulls final regular season game.  Rollercoaster ride without the high points it has been and it’s also been enough to keep Steve McNamara in his job and if Leeds continue to falter you never know about that Leeds game, the Bulls may score a try.  The flip side of this game is that Wakefield really need to get hold of this ball and do something with it before next week’s kick off but I’m not expecting much, you’re not expecting much and their fans probably just want to get to that semi now so that they can get some league form again.  I do fear for Wakefield that this recent semi-final slump has destroyed the brilliant work the whole side had put into their first half of the season and it would be a shame for those players if that old skool mentality of “We’re in the cup so Metallica!” has been the reason for this downturn.  It’s a key match in the context of Wakefield and the Bulls making the finals series with that Bulls run-in looking a lot easier than Wakey’s final four, which is the hardest in the competition (Saints, Wigan, Catalans and Leeds).  Maybe John Kear did look at that fixture list and realise that whatever he does in the lead up to the semi, the rest is future history.  Bulls by 12.

Harlequins RL v Castleford
Fear not Harlequins RL fans, this is a guaranteed win, or rather it was until the Fisticuffs Four got themselves in hot water in France.  Now I’m not so sure. Having seen both teams ship female darts scores against Saints I must mention how disappointing the defences were even against an in-form side.  Of those two teams Castleford get some benefit from being away from home, still they were truly appalling in defence, making Saints look superhuman, including Adey Gardner.  It’s sad to say that neither of these sides have had an improvement in the second half of the season.  Harlequins RL started off with six wins in their first ten games, only to manage just two in the next eleven, a poor return no matter what the injury situation is.  If we look closer at those earlier victories we can see Harlequins RL were an effective, competitive team until arguably, the trip to Knowsley Road.  That loss wasn’t a surprise but it appears to have signalled changes in directions for its participants, Saints haven’t lost since that game and Harlequins RL have won just two.  It seems the early season predictions of a lowly placing for both might come true, however I think that the fans of both teams can take credit for being the best group of fans in the league, in terms of their vocal application.  It may be a meaningless award to many but for true fans they’ve both been a breath of fresh air in an increasingly biased and bitter supporting spectrum.  Harlequins RL by 4.

Hull v Hull KR
Just how typical of Hull’s luck is the timing of this fixture?  Last week, Agar’s men turned in the kind of performance that can be underrated because of the opposition’s failings and, relying too much on Wakefield’s showing chips away too much at the quality Hull turned out.  Hull are very much a work-in-progress with the Wakefield game being a match-up that gave Agar a chance to measure his side against an outfit of similar competitive capability.  At times I thought that Hull showed some traditional British attacking RL which is something that you could probably say hasn’t been shown by them before.  I don’t mean that this was a historic or most effective display, I mean the thought to keep the ball alive was a first thought instead of what I’ve always felt was a more conservative, ball control approach.  This derby would have been in Agar’s mind and a convincing win at Belle Vue was a five star achievement, given their season so far.  Agar would have seen, in front of him this week, a team on a slide after consecutive defeats, anticipating that Rovers’ form would shift the points spread in Hull’s favour.  Typical of Hull’s luck that Rovers suddenly pull a terrific win over contenders, Wigan.  Despite the gap that needs to be made up to the playoffs, the Bulls-Wildcats game means two points from this can give them a rope bridge to the six.  Realistically though, a win does nothing more than thwart their rivals’ finals ambitions, which suggests that Hull might not be as competitive especially with the semi-final looming next week.  Suggesting that I think is wrong because Agar has been looking for form from his side, which is a contrast to the perception you get of Wakefield.  Agar appears to have stronger control over his side’s focus than Kear at the moment but Rovers have been a team his side has found ways to lose against and that win against Wigan has given Morgan the lift his team needed.  That win, Rovers’ much stronger kicking game and the visitors recent record against Hull makes me favour them.  I don’t have any preferences in this east coast title bout but with an eye on the Challenge Cup I hope that Hull consolidate that form and manufacture more in case they do win next week so that the final isn’t the washout many are already thinking it will be.  It’s a fascinating contest and it is one of those games where you apply more weight to the psychology of the head-to-head because neither team is operating at a high technical level.  This, to me, means you can’t place too much emphasis on either team’s ability because they don’t have enough consistency for you to make a strong case for one side over the over.  Inevitably this has allowed me to type a stream of consciousness about how important the intellectual strength of the players is to the result.  Eventually that absence of reliable form pushes me back to the factors in Rovers favour rather than this possibly simmering Hull revival.  Promises to be a mini-epic.  Rovers by 2.

Last week’s predictions;

Leeds by 12 (won by 38 )
Saints by 50 (won by 56)
Warrington by 8 (won by 4)
Catalans by 12 (won by 6)
Wildcats by 6 (lost by 8 )
Wigan by 6 (lost by 17)

Well despite my continual failure to grab a hold on any Rovers games consistency has arrived in the form of my preditions.  Another four from six making the overall record of 79-48 (62% still lol).