XIII Oceans

 

Into the last straight for the year now with just seven games remaining and I thought I’d take a look at a few things today surrounding the previews and predictions just to see how things have shaped out and how some teams have performed alongside those.  Primarily the previews are there to preview the games and I put the predictions in according to how I see the games developing but mainly it’s an opportunity to have something to read prior to the weekend that isn’t strictly forum based.

 

If the results had gone exactly the way that I’ve predicted this would be what the current league table would like (there are a couple of points missing from that table because I didn’t preview the opening fixture of the season, so I’ve added an additional two points to Leeds as that’s who would have got my prediction).  A few interesting choices there with the two most notable differences being the positions of Harlequins and Catalans who I’ve underestimated during the course of the year.  Out of twenty rounds of games a Harlequins win has been predicted on just four occasions.  For those that are interested those four win predictions have been against Catalans twice (Easter bank holiday fixture and Millennium Magic), Hull (Round 14) and their most recent game against Warrington.  As you’ve may have noticed they lost three of those games.

 

1	Leeds	38*
2	Saints	32
3	Wigan	28
4	Bradford	27
5	Warrington	21
6	Catalans	18
7	Wakefield	18
8	Hull KR	16
9	Huddersfield	14
10	Hull	12
11	Harlequins	8
12	Castleford	6

 

* includes two points for opening fixture of season, due to non-prediction.

 

How does your team shape up?  Have any of the previews been reliable?  Well this latest round did include the first time that Leeds weren’t backed to win.  Over the course every single previous round Leeds had been tipped for the win.  Which teams have the best records on and which predictions are usually no basis for you to place bets on?

 

How often have your team been backed to win?

 

These numbers are percentages and understandably Leeds and Saints have been backed in 95% and 80% of the matches that they’ve played in.  Probably the biggest surprises on the backing front are the previously mentioned lack of backing for Catalans and Harlequins, who have overcome such a mystical penalty by winning games.  Looking down the list, it’s a top five heavy prediction listing which helps identify that there must have been several upset results, during the course of the season i.e. traditional non-top 6 teams beating the more firmly-established playoff campaigners.

 

Leeds	95%
Saints	80%
Wigan	74%
Bradford	65%
Warrington	50%
Catalans	45%
Wakefield	45%
Hull KR	42%
Huddersfield	37%
Hull	30%
Harlequins RL	20%
Castleford	15%

 

How often has your team been backed to win correctly?

 

Following on from backing a team, just how often has that backing been right with your team.  When backed on XIII Oceans, how sure can you be that your team will win?  Some notable differences with this, as Catalans have a high rate which is due to their great form whereas Leeds fall down a few spots, mainly because they’ve been backed every week.   

 

Saints	81%
Catalans	78%
Leeds	78%
Wigan	71%
Warrington	70%
Wakefield	67%
Bradford	62%
Huddersfield	57%
Hull	50%
Hull KR	38%
Harlequins RL	25%
Castleford	0%

 

How often has your team been tipped to lose?

 

No surprises here with Castleford being tipped to lose 85% of the time and it just goes to show that Harlequins RL fans aren’t just suffering from their normal paranoia when they proclaim that they aren’t given that much of a chance.

 

Castleford	85%
Harlequins RL	80%
Hull	65%
Huddersfield	63%
Hull KR	58%
Catalans	55%
Wakefield	55%
Warrington	50%
Bradford	30%
Wigan	26%
Saints	20%
Leeds	5%

 

 

When tipped to lose, just how likely are they to lose?

 

Ignoring the Leeds position because that’s based on one prediction to lose, there’s a fairly high success rate in predicting losses for Hull and the Bulls so not a good sign for either if a loss is anticipated.  Fortunately for Hull fans there’s no previews of the Challenge Cup games.  Catalans are clearly the best side at overcoming predictions on here.

 

Leeds	100%
Hull	85%
Bradford	83%
Castleford	76%
Huddersfield	75%
Wakefield	64%
Wigan	60%
Harlequins RL	56%
Hull KR	55%
Warrington	50%
Saints	50%
Catalans	36%

 

So overall, what’s the likelihood of your team’s result being right on XIII Oceans?

 

It shouldn’t surprise you that Leeds and Saints occupy the top two spots but my assessments of both Hull sides are very different with a severe overestimation of Rovers’ abilities so far, whereas Hull, Huddersfield and Wigan previews can be counted on for being a good guide to those sides’ relative success.

 

Leeds	79%
Saints	75%
Hull	70%
Huddersfield	68%
Wigan	68%
Bradford	65%
Castleford	65%
Wakefield	65%
Warrington	60%
Catalans	55%
Harlequins RL	50%
Hull KR	47%