XIII Oceans

Welcome back and thanks for taking the time to read these predictions.  It’s getting a bit repetitive talking about the same things so I’ve thrown in a couple of dull Steve Wright In The Afternoons to heighten the thrill of reading about your team and the ones you don’t like. 

Warriors v Leeds
Now here’s a head-to-head that’s been one of the premier fixtures in the northern hemisphere over the past twenty-five years, except for a brief lull in the early Super League days when Graham Holroyd was the Yorkshire side’s answer to Shaun Edwards.  Whilst Holroyd may have given Edwards a run for his money in the beauty stakes he was also a metaphor for Leeds’ aspirations pre-Graeme Murray i.e. he hadn’t a clue.  Anyway, how civilisations rise and fall.  Gone is Augustus Mo replaced by Augustus Moe.  Even when the pillars finally crumbled over a decade ago there remained a strong garrison that has continued to compete with the Rhinos even when their own ingredients have been a bit fruity.  This week it’s likely the visitors will be significantly under-strength, creating a remarkable opportunity for Noble to not only turnover the current kings but to get that locomotion of form going.  You have to fancy that the legends of Central Park, Gary Connolly and Andy Platt, would have relished a crack at the champions in their current state.  Their current state?  Hang on a second, I’m not saying that Leeds are flailing about on the ropes but their form is a bit indifferent, which is something that could also be said about the Warriors form since round one.  Why does it make a difference this time around?  Well we all know about the previous games between these two this year and so we all assume that those results lend themselves to being an influence on this one and who would argue with that?  A great win for the Warriors hopes if they get it and I fancy that they might just.  SL Factoid – the Warriors won three out of four games between the teams last year and have won the last four league meetings.  Warriors by 2. 

Harlequins RL v Saints
A must-read for Gutterfax and Lister as their beloved Harlequins RL play host to Super League’s form side.  No one will give Harlequins RL that much of a chance and those that don’t will highlight that when Leeds arrived at The Stoop they were more in a cabbage patch than a purple patch.  Saints arrive having dismantled the champions on their own ground and appear to have the most effective gameplan in the league.  At Huddersfield last week the visitors competed well, in physical terms, during the first half of the game, but Saints took advantage of the Giants indiscipline to storm clear.  A lot has been made recently of the penalty counts that Saints have received, leading to claims of bias and even suggestions that the Saints coach has manipulated the system so as to almost pick and choose the match official.  Wild conspiracies or plain old truthiness?  Whatever your opinion you have to recognise that teams with penalty counts in their favour, usually have it because the other side is struggling to compete with them.  It’s a common reality in many team sports.  SL Factoid - from 2006, Saints’ penalty count has decreased year-on-year.  Can Harlequins RL, a notoriously disruptive team that can play right at the edge of the law, contain this Saints side?  Very difficult.  Harlequins RL have overturned the form book many times but not very often against Saints and with the visitors strong run of form this could shape up into one of those old Broncos-Saints clashes were the home team pushes all the way, only to lose to some fluky piece of play or decision.  Alternatively it could just turn into a more recent contest with Saints controlling the game in a professional manner from start to finish.  Come on McDermott, get these guys fired up and give us that old rivalry back.  Saints by 8.

Castleford v Hull KR
SL Factoid – Castleford need to win six of their remaining eight fixtures to record the same number of points that they did in the year they were relegated.  In light of recent discussions about expansion and concern that some people have lodged, including me, about this competition being able to sustain a league of similar standard I think that’s very telling evidence that these concerns are not just with substance but actually right.  Castleford have found this year hard, their fans I’m sure have found it even harder and although their side will be better off for the experience, it raises big questions about what another two sides are going to do in this league.  So whilst Castleford’s poor showing this year (which, let’s not forget, can also be put down to the standard of the competition as a whole increasing too) has left their fans with not unsurprising disappointment, Rovers fans must be forlorn by their own side’s failure to progress in the second half of the season.  Justin Morgan had acquired some good personnel and his side responded, moving Rovers away from the bottom of the table, putting them in the playoff hunt until they just ran out of consistency.  Recent defeats to fellow playoff contenders means that Rovers will remain at least five points off six place should they beat the Tigers, lose and it’s a seven point gap and effectively goodbye to the playoffs for this year.  It’s difficult to ascertain exactly where things have gone wrong but it’s simple to generalise and it is the consistency.  An overused word but completely appropriate for teams that have mixed it with the best this year, however you can see from any of the games that these teams have lost, from winning positions, that it’s been down to playing the 80 minutes in patches.  I don’t think that there’s a side I’ve seen this year where it’s been more evident than with Rovers.  Rovers can’t afford to lose this one.  Rovers by 4.

Huddersfield v Bradford
I’m not sure that this is one that would have me queuing up for tickets despite being two of the more attractive teams to watch in recent years.  This season it’s less Going For Gold and more The Weakest Link.  Despite the reservations I have about the quality of fare that may be served up on Sunday it’s still an interesting prospect.  The Bulls are involved in a barging match at the lower end of the playoff spots and the Giants have freed themselves from the shackles of conservative football now that their season is reduced to completing the fixture list.  Last week the Giants showed glimpses of their power against Saints, battling hard until indiscipline caught up with them but it was enough for me to suggest, like as has happened with Wire, that these aren’t bad players, just players in need of some inspirational coaching.  Jon Sharp’s departure I’m not as sure about as the world was about Cullen’s but it’s done now and last week’s showing at Saints could have been a good foundation for this game.  Unfortunately as the game progressed the Giants found themselves out of the game and unable to build some sort of structure that could be used to help improve future performances.  SL Factoid – the Giants brought more fans to Knowsley Road last week than the Bulls did in their recent visit, obviously keen Time Team fans.  Bulls by 6.

Hull v Catalans Dragons
Is it possible to back against Catalans Dragons anymore?  They’ve just stuffed Warrington, turned the tables on Wakefield and now face a side that is still having difficulty stringing passes together.  You know how these games work, the Dragons are winning with consistency but Hull is a tough place to go.  Catalans have had wins there before and are in great form.  That should be enough for you to put your money on the French.  You can analyse all you want about the technical deficiencies, physical advantages and coaching ability but you cannot do that in isolation from the other intangible factors like venue, vocal support and previous records.  In fact, I read recently that including such intangibles doesn’t really provide any revealing insight into how events may pan out.  I don’t think you can say that.  If you had a team that’s lost their last ten away games you’d have to be silly to not believe that has no bearing on the next time that they play a game away from home even if they were in good form at home.  Still, like Hull playing at Wembley, I’m not going to win on that one so I abandoned reason and logic by playing Russian roulette with Brigitte Bardot’s castrated donkey.  I won.   Catalans by 6.

Warrington v Wakefield
Tuesday night’s game did more for our understanding of this year’s competition than any other result in recent weeks because it put three teams into perspective.  Victory for Catalans reinforced their Grand Final credentials (and the fact that we’re talking Grand Final and not just playoff credentials is incredible, after just three seasons) and it also gave us a context for both these teams.  Warrington more than just folded, over in Perpignan, whereas Wakefield just couldn’t hang on to the top three bound Dragons.  Defeat at the hands of the French franchise now means something different and those two losses put these teams firmly out of the upper reaches of the competition but well within the playoff hunt.  By all accounts last week’s episode in Wolfwatch had a cliff-hanger finale after a fairly poor game, which any fan will take from a road trip.  Warrington may have dropped off the pace over the past couple of months but they’ve continued to put points on the board which gives them a gambler’s chance in any shoot out.  Against Wakefield there’s every likelihood that this game could develop into one of those climaxes with some fine footballers on both sides.  If this was a football match you’re thinking Ossie Ardiles’ Tottingham against Keegan’s Toon Army, 5-4, 4-3 or 48-32 in RL terms.  If the showers come down you usually lose some points off the board but in essence these are similar teams with Wire’s threequarter strength tipping things in their balance.  Wire by 6.

Last week’s predictions;

Warriors by 10 (won by 18 )
Leeds by 4 (won by 6)
Bulls by 8 (won by 20)
Hull by 4 (lost by 2)
Saints by 2 (won by 30)
Wildcats by 2 (lost by 16)

Not bad, four from six, keeping the overall percentage fairly steady at 71-44 (62%)