XIII Oceans

Halfway through the season now and here’s the latest previews that were actually written before the matches were broadcast.

Leeds v Wakefield

Who would have thought that halfway through the season Wakefield would be sitting in a playoff spot on merit and not default?  By the same token, who would have thought that the champions would have lost to Castleford and the Warriors?  Prior to the start of the season both teams and their fans would gladly have taken their current league positions and form, no question.  Moving into the second half of the season the aim for both will be to maintain and, if possible, improve their form and league position which I don’t think is beyond either side.  With the Bulls and Hull following this game Leeds have a chance to relax and enjoy their football a bit in these next three league games because, at the moment, they quite simply have these opponents in their back pocket when it comes to Super League tussles.  Wakefield most notably have a terrible record against the Rhinos although I think they’ll push them closer tonight than most expect with Brad Drew, Danny Sculthorpe and most importantly, pack-wrecker Ricky Bibey back in contention for the Wildcats.  Unfortunately Brent Webb, Lauititi and Ryan Bailey’s return just about negates the return of Bibey so it’s a home win for me.  Leeds by 14. 

Wigoon v Warrington

In recent seasons the Wolves have made this a very competitive fixture albeit one where the home team grabs the spoils and this weekend is likely to have the same outcome.  The increasingly small band of deluded Warrington fans will tell you that last week they were unlucky to not overturn Saints in the cup, those Wolves fans that have had enough of their former player at the helm will tell you that scoring 34 points away from home and not winning is further proof of a coach who hasn’t managed any period of consistently tough defence during his tenure.  Since these two teams last met, at the beginning of March, when Warrington asserted their playoff credentials, the Wolves have won three games, twice against Huddersfield (second from bottom) and once at Cas (via loan of a Saints GOOJF card).  That’s all you really need to know about the brick wall that Warrington have hit and now it’s a brick wall with injuries, the kind that end long-term season hopes and sometimes buy coaches a stay of execution.  A heavy defeat against a Warriors side that has lifted itself by drubbing Cullen’s former club isn’t going to be even the first nail of the coffin for Cullen because despite their poor results over the past two months, his side still sits level on points with Noble’s.  With no full back and Kevin Penny you expect that Trent Barrett will rejuvenate his side for a comfortable victory thanks to Warrington’s leaky defence and the devastating firepower of George ‘I Will Embarrass You Even Further’ Carmont.  There’s no reason why Warrington can’t win this game and with Clarke and Martin ‘Dr Zhivago’ Gleeson back they’re in with a good chance, however they’re not in top six form and six points in two months means that they need to face a side that’s stuttering worse that the Warriors to build some momentum.  Warriors by 10.

Saints v Catalans

Second away to third makes this the game of the round, I think with expectations for all that this match may have come just at the wrong time for Catalans.  Had this been two to three weeks ago Mick Potter’s side would rightly fancy springing an upset on the back of a great series of results, including good wins away from home.  Frustratingly this tough road trip comes after a disappointing cup defeat at Odsal so even though the Dragons still have an unbeaten record that goes all the way back to round 5 you expect a win for the home side.  Catalans are second only to the champions in getting league points when on their travels, however all four of their wins have been against sides currently nestling in the bottom half of the table.  Being in good shape away from Perpignan and notching up those wins is essential for any side with top six aspirations and it is against the lower placed clubs where you pick up your points for getting into the playoffs with results against the other playoff clubs usually determining your position in that pecking order.  Here though the Dragons face the league’s most potent home performers and at a time when they’ve rattled up an average of 51 points in their last three home games, two of which have been in local derbies.  In three visits to Saints the Dragons have shown that they can throw the ball around behind the probing of Stacey Jones, unfortunately they have also conceded more than fifty points in each of those tussles.  The home side are hovering about near the top and are still lacking the consistency that has underpinned the last three years so we are looking at two teams that aren’t as far apart at the moment as previous results imply.  After this match Potter wheels his team back home for the first of three home matches in the space of the month, all three of which are perfectly winnable, so despite the fact this game is against the team breathing down their necks, the Dragons quest for a top six place really begins with the visit of Huddersfield next week.  Saints by 12.

Castleford v Bradford

In the absence of El Cordobés’ the Tigers are going to have to rely on the tactical nous of El Tel if there’s going to be any Casa Doble action at Big Fella’s on Sunday night.  You have to go back six years to find the last time the Tigers beat the Bulls at The Jungle, which is a brilliant record for any visiting side but with wins over both last year’s Grand Finalists, the more superstitious amongst us will latch onto that to perceive this game as being more competitive than the league standings indicate.  They might have a point though.  Away from home this year, the Bulls have notched up just two victories, at Catalans in the last minute and relatively comfortably at Hull, so this result is no foregone conclusion.  Similarly, Castleford at home could easily have picked up one or two more victories with a bit more fortune and El Tel is sure to have had his side training hard for this match after a weekend off.  How much improvement can we expect to see from his side?  Is it going to be enough to blank out the mauling that the Wildcats gave them or will we see that kind of dismal front up again?  If it’s the latter the Bulls will show the same kind of disdain as Wakefield did and we could be looking at another big score.  Conceding fifty at Odsal is no disgrace for a side destined to finish bottom this year and I think that the Tigers will use their recent savagings by Wakefield and Bradford to keep this closer with a little help from the visitors inconsistency.  Bulls by 10.

Harlequins RL v Hull FC

Poor Harlequins RL.  Watching their refreshing combative attitude and occasionally mesmerising brand of rugby league you have to feel a certain sympathy for Brian McDermott who must be desperate to bring both together for a full eighty minutes because when they do they, I believe, could beat anybody.  In recent weeks Harlequins RL have been on television more than usual and it’s allowed those of us who don’t get the opportunity to watch them regularly to look at not just their play but the growth of former academy players into genuine first graders.  None of the three players that have caught my attention over the past month are players that I thought would progress to the extent that they have, those players being Clubb, Worrincy and the oft-travelled Mbu.  It is a credit to McDermott that these three are in the process of shaking off their tags of mediocrity, progressing into good solid, first grade players which is what the minimum aim of every academy set up should be.  In contrast, Peter Sharp doesn’t appear to be extracting the same sort of response from the likes of Graeme Horne, Washbrook or Tommy Lee.  Whether that’s an unfair comment or not, I think Hull fans are probably better situated to assess that than me, however it’s not a suggestion that these three guys have or will fail, more a reflection on how good an impact McDermott has made with his personnel.  I’m tempted to go for the away team in this match, primarily because Harlequins RL have gone from surprising everyone with their positive results to doing the same by losing and here’s a game that sits comfortably in the expected win column.  Will it be that?  Hull have pulled off a few late wins this year which sets them as the perfect foil to Harlequins RL who can’t haul a last minute win from anywhere at the moment, but surely the home side can’t let their deserving fans down again?  Harlequins RL by 2.

Huddersfield v Hull KR

A reversal of last week’s cup tie that might also provide a reversal in score as well.  How much can we take from then to ascertain the outcome this weekend?   Well Rovers have managed just two wins on the road this season, at Catalans and the Magic weekend game (which was technically neutral) and Huddersfield’s wins have all been at home.  Given that both Rovers away wins were late ones you can expect them to commit themselves for the full eighty with the closeness of their games reflecting that irrespective of the venue (three of their six defeats have been by 1, 2 and 6 points) so they should be confident that they can challenge the Giants for the two points.  For the Giants we’re not in last chance saloon because a strong run between now and the final round could propel them into a playoff spot, it’s just that this league is so competitive this year that whereas in previous years you could expect other teams to fade away this year there are too many good sides in the mix to expect a parting of the waves for Sharp’s men to rise up the table.  From a start that should have been the foundation for victory last week, the Giants didn’t really collapse, as the score indicated, it was Rovers who came back at them and there was no response.  Why was that?  Where was the leadership on the field during the tougher passages in play?  I’m not putting that loss down to captaincy but there was no forty-storey capitulation, it just felt like Rovers forced the game a bit more and the Giants dozed off a bit or became complacent.  Like I said, this isn’t the end if the Giants lose, it’s just another huge set back if they do so it’s time to throw out the conservative football and let the ball handlers give the forwards something to run onto.  As good as the Huddersfield forward can be at the one out stuff, why can’t Sharp get his men to link up with the Brown et al too?  If they can do that it’s on.  Huddersfield by 4.

Last round predictions;

Warrington by 8 (won by 2)

Wakefield by 6 (won by 3

Leeds by 12 (won by 14)

Harlequins by 8 (lost by 2)

Hull by 2 (lost by 5)

Saints by 4 (won by 41)

So four out of six last weekend, making it an overall 47-33 (59%).