XIII Oceans

Halfway through the season now and here’s the latest previews that were actually written before the matches were broadcast.

Leeds v Wakefield

Who would have thought that halfway through the season Wakefield would be sitting in a playoff spot on merit and not default?  By the same token, who would have thought that the champions would have lost to Castleford and the Warriors?  Prior to the start of the season both teams and their fans would gladly have taken their current league positions and form, no question.  Moving into the second half of the season the aim for both will be to maintain and, if possible, improve their form and league position which I don’t think is beyond either side.  With the Bulls and Hull following this game Leeds have a chance to relax and enjoy their football a bit in these next three league games because, at the moment, they quite simply have these opponents in their back pocket when it comes to Super League tussles.  Wakefield most notably have a terrible record against the Rhinos although I think they’ll push them closer tonight than most expect with Brad Drew, Danny Sculthorpe and most importantly, pack-wrecker Ricky Bibey back in contention for the Wildcats.  Unfortunately Brent Webb, Lauititi and Ryan Bailey’s return just about negates the return of Bibey so it’s a home win for me.  Leeds by 14. 

Wigoon v Warrington

In recent seasons the Wolves have made this a very competitive fixture albeit one where the home team grabs the spoils and this weekend is likely to have the same outcome.  The increasingly small band of deluded Warrington fans will tell you that last week they were unlucky to not overturn Saints in the cup, those Wolves fans that have had enough of their former player at the helm will tell you that scoring 34 points away from home and not winning is further proof of a coach who hasn’t managed any period of consistently tough defence during his tenure.  Since these two teams last met, at the beginning of March, when Warrington asserted their playoff credentials, the Wolves have won three games, twice against Huddersfield (second from bottom) and once at Cas (via loan of a Saints GOOJF card).  That’s all you really need to know about the brick wall that Warrington have hit and now it’s a brick wall with injuries, the kind that end long-term season hopes and sometimes buy coaches a stay of execution.  A heavy defeat against a Warriors side that has lifted itself by drubbing Cullen’s former club isn’t going to be even the first nail of the coffin for Cullen because despite their poor results over the past two months, his side still sits level on points with Noble’s.  With no full back and Kevin Penny you expect that Trent Barrett will rejuvenate his side for a comfortable victory thanks to Warrington’s leaky defence and the devastating firepower of George ‘I Will Embarrass You Even Further’ Carmont.  There’s no reason why Warrington can’t win this game and with Clarke and Martin ‘Dr Zhivago’ Gleeson back they’re in with a good chance, however they’re not in top six form and six points in two months means that they need to face a side that’s stuttering worse that the Warriors to build some momentum.  Warriors by 10.

Saints v Catalans

Second away to third makes this the game of the round, I think with expectations for all that this match may have come just at the wrong time for Catalans.  Had this been two to three weeks ago Mick Potter’s side would rightly fancy springing an upset on the back of a great series of results, including good wins away from home.  Frustratingly this tough road trip comes after a disappointing cup defeat at Odsal so even though the Dragons still have an unbeaten record that goes all the way back to round 5 you expect a win for the home side.  Catalans are second only to the champions in getting league points when on their travels, however all four of their wins have been against sides currently nestling in the bottom half of the table.  Being in good shape away from Perpignan and notching up those wins is essential for any side with top six aspirations and it is against the lower placed clubs where you pick up your points for getting into the playoffs with results against the other playoff clubs usually determining your position in that pecking order.  Here though the Dragons face the league’s most potent home performers and at a time when they’ve rattled up an average of 51 points in their last three home games, two of which have been in local derbies.  In three visits to Saints the Dragons have shown that they can throw the ball around behind the probing of Stacey Jones, unfortunately they have also conceded more than fifty points in each of those tussles.  The home side are hovering about near the top and are still lacking the consistency that has underpinned the last three years so we are looking at two teams that aren’t as far apart at the moment as previous results imply.  After this match Potter wheels his team back home for the first of three home matches in the space of the month, all three of which are perfectly winnable, so despite the fact this game is against the team breathing down their necks, the Dragons quest for a top six place really begins with the visit of Huddersfield next week.  Saints by 12.

Castleford v Bradford

In the absence of El Cordobés’ the Tigers are going to have to rely on the tactical nous of El Tel if there’s going to be any Casa Doble action at Big Fella’s on Sunday night.  You have to go back six years to find the last time the Tigers beat the Bulls at The Jungle, which is a brilliant record for any visiting side but with wins over both last year’s Grand Finalists, the more superstitious amongst us will latch onto that to perceive this game as being more competitive than the league standings indicate.  They might have a point though.  Away from home this year, the Bulls have notched up just two victories, at Catalans in the last minute and relatively comfortably at Hull, so this result is no foregone conclusion.  Similarly, Castleford at home could easily have picked up one or two more victories with a bit more fortune and El Tel is sure to have had his side training hard for this match after a weekend off.  How much improvement can we expect to see from his side?  Is it going to be enough to blank out the mauling that the Wildcats gave them or will we see that kind of dismal front up again?  If it’s the latter the Bulls will show the same kind of disdain as Wakefield did and we could be looking at another big score.  Conceding fifty at Odsal is no disgrace for a side destined to finish bottom this year and I think that the Tigers will use their recent savagings by Wakefield and Bradford to keep this closer with a little help from the visitors inconsistency.  Bulls by 10.

Harlequins RL v Hull FC

Poor Harlequins RL.  Watching their refreshing combative attitude and occasionally mesmerising brand of rugby league you have to feel a certain sympathy for Brian McDermott who must be desperate to bring both together for a full eighty minutes because when they do they, I believe, could beat anybody.  In recent weeks Harlequins RL have been on television more than usual and it’s allowed those of us who don’t get the opportunity to watch them regularly to look at not just their play but the growth of former academy players into genuine first graders.  None of the three players that have caught my attention over the past month are players that I thought would progress to the extent that they have, those players being Clubb, Worrincy and the oft-travelled Mbu.  It is a credit to McDermott that these three are in the process of shaking off their tags of mediocrity, progressing into good solid, first grade players which is what the minimum aim of every academy set up should be.  In contrast, Peter Sharp doesn’t appear to be extracting the same sort of response from the likes of Graeme Horne, Washbrook or Tommy Lee.  Whether that’s an unfair comment or not, I think Hull fans are probably better situated to assess that than me, however it’s not a suggestion that these three guys have or will fail, more a reflection on how good an impact McDermott has made with his personnel.  I’m tempted to go for the away team in this match, primarily because Harlequins RL have gone from surprising everyone with their positive results to doing the same by losing and here’s a game that sits comfortably in the expected win column.  Will it be that?  Hull have pulled off a few late wins this year which sets them as the perfect foil to Harlequins RL who can’t haul a last minute win from anywhere at the moment, but surely the home side can’t let their deserving fans down again?  Harlequins RL by 2.

Huddersfield v Hull KR

A reversal of last week’s cup tie that might also provide a reversal in score as well.  How much can we take from then to ascertain the outcome this weekend?   Well Rovers have managed just two wins on the road this season, at Catalans and the Magic weekend game (which was technically neutral) and Huddersfield’s wins have all been at home.  Given that both Rovers away wins were late ones you can expect them to commit themselves for the full eighty with the closeness of their games reflecting that irrespective of the venue (three of their six defeats have been by 1, 2 and 6 points) so they should be confident that they can challenge the Giants for the two points.  For the Giants we’re not in last chance saloon because a strong run between now and the final round could propel them into a playoff spot, it’s just that this league is so competitive this year that whereas in previous years you could expect other teams to fade away this year there are too many good sides in the mix to expect a parting of the waves for Sharp’s men to rise up the table.  From a start that should have been the foundation for victory last week, the Giants didn’t really collapse, as the score indicated, it was Rovers who came back at them and there was no response.  Why was that?  Where was the leadership on the field during the tougher passages in play?  I’m not putting that loss down to captaincy but there was no forty-storey capitulation, it just felt like Rovers forced the game a bit more and the Giants dozed off a bit or became complacent.  Like I said, this isn’t the end if the Giants lose, it’s just another huge set back if they do so it’s time to throw out the conservative football and let the ball handlers give the forwards something to run onto.  As good as the Huddersfield forward can be at the one out stuff, why can’t Sharp get his men to link up with the Brown et al too?  If they can do that it’s on.  Huddersfield by 4.

Last round predictions;

Warrington by 8 (won by 2)

Wakefield by 6 (won by 38)

Leeds by 12 (won by 14)

Harlequins by 8 (lost by 2)

Hull by 2 (lost by 5)

Saints by 4 (won by 41)

So four out of six last weekend, making it an overall 47-33 (59%). 

So it’s overpriced accommodation and rail tickets time for some, TV dreamland for others and dreamy thoughts of sunkissed beaches and INXS for former Man Of Steel contenders as the big games surface for a magical weekend in one of the least accessible cities in Britain, Cardiff.

(+8 ) Huddersfield v Warrington
Here’s a thriller for you to start your Millennium Magic weekend, arguably the two teams that are in the poorest form to open up a festival of rugby league.  Hopefully most of the first-time attendees will still be in the bar so they’re not put off our great sport by what is likely to be a procession of incomplete sets, lazy tackles and Lee Briers.  Of course only part of that is true because it is an intriguing head-to-head between two increasingly desperate teams.  I expect this to be a highly committed match, one that both will view as well within their grasp and it’ll be interesting to see if it becomes two teams throwing everything at each other or two trying not to lose the game.  In a shoot out you have to fancy Warrington and with the way that Huddersfield are playing I can’t see them being able to convert chances that come their way should this descend into a calamity-clash.  This brings everything back to those questions of ball control and field position so when you look at that you see that, of the two, Warrington have demonstrated they can do that, it’s an issue of form with them.  Huddersfield haven’t done that and haven’t had any consistency this year and they need it and need it quickly.  Warrington by 8.

(+8 ) Castleford v Wakefield
Castleford would prefer this to be at home obviously, but playing on a neutral ground is significantly better for them than going to Wakefield.  Sadly for Cas, Wakefield are on a mini-roll and although they were very lucky to come away with the win on Saturday they did more than plug away at Harlequins RL lead, forcing the visitors into submitting to their swell.  You expect that Castleford will come out and give the game some tempo, like Harlequins RL did,  whereas Wakefield will seek to overpower their opponents over the course of the eighty with their composure and willingness to let Castleford’s attacking game trip itself up.  How will the game shape up?  It’s difficult for me to see this Wakefield side allow themselves to let the Tigers get a hold on the game however I can see the derby rivalry keeping the game close until the Wildcats halves get a hold of the game.  Wakefield by 6.

(+6) Bradford v Leeds
The Bulls continue to get results that keep them up amongst the top two hunt whilst Leeds survive the worst casualty list since Rambo to stay at the top.  Reviewing form for this game doesn’t usually work, we’ve found that one team is usually in the ascendancy with Leeds being the boss now.  Can the Bulls overcome the vogue?  They will be happy with the physical confrontation in the forwards fearing more the strike capabilities and ball in hand play of the Rhinos.  I would love to see the kind of running, hitting and drama that these two can produce against each other but you look at the Bulls results and the thrills are limited so it’s probably wishful thinking to hope for a game as great as last year’s.  Like the men of Bastogne, Leeds heroics separates them from the pack and they remain titans amongst men, albeit heavily injured titans, leading this competition from the front.  In the face of such battle hardened walking wounded we can only expect the Bulls to wilt, dropping down on their knees to worship in front of these grandiose icons.  Leeds by 12.

Catalans v Harlequins RL (+2)
My game of the weekend and one that I’m disappointed that those not going to Cardiff won’t be able to watch live.  Catalans unbeaten run continues whereas Harlequins RL managed to put a great eighty minutes in recently, unfortunately spread out across two matches.  I’m finding it difficult though to see this Dragons run trundling along according to form and that middle eighty for Harlequins RL sets up what I think will be a bit of an ambush, inspiring the Spivs to an unlikely if not unsurprising win.  Some of the rugby that has been on show in those two halves was as good as you will have seen all season so it must be disappointing for them to have not capitalised on that last week.  Catalans are a side that haven’t been watched often by many so they remain a mystery to most even if the highlight reels show imagination in attack.  In thinking about a lot of these fixtures my thoughts turn more towards the mindset of teams going into the game and whilst Potter will have Catalans focussed, McDermott will have a lot more to call upon as motivation in this match from recent performances and the Easter game.  Harlequins RL by 8.

Hull v Hull KR (+4)
Biff!  Bash!  Bosh!  All on the menu on Sunday afternoon as Lee Radford leads his men against Paul Cooke, only this time it’s personal.  No doubt Gail Tylesley’s chin-a-like, Cooke, will be aiming to dictate things from behind his pack to avoid any confrontations with the Hull skipper, who is suitably enthusiastic about this match-up.  I don’t think there’s been an on screen match up that’s promised more fireworks since “What’s Love Got To Do With It?” and we could be in for a humdinger.  Rovers appear to have the upper hand in meetings between the two and with just two points between them they’re teams fighting for the same position and anticipated season.  On Good Friday Rovers started off the better side, Hull came back strong before the home side sealed the win by a point.  During the second half I felt that Hull were significantly better than Rovers were in the first half and really should have been able to use their momentum to claim the victory, that they didn’t owes more to homefield advantage than any shortcomings on the day.  Of course it’s easy to say the neutral venue shifts the balance in Hull’s favour though it’s more than that.  These appear to be teams that are crawling in opposite directions with no clear impetus for either side but Hull appear to breathing with a bit more gusto which I think is just enough to bring them home.  Hull by 2.

Saints v Wigoon (+8 )
Sunday night’s football headliner has some potential in it.  Potential, is what it will probably stay.  Neither side gives me hope that this will be a 100% full frontal assault at the moment despite being level on points.  However this should be a considerably closer game than Good Friday’s mauling.  Had Gareth Hock been eligible to play in this game that closeness would likely have tipped things in Wigoon’s favour with Saints returning to two front line props but his absence is a big loss for the Warriors.  In spite of having a couple of poor seasons, characterised by poor discipline and ball control, Hock remains the most damaging forward runner that Brian Noble can call upon and there doesn’t appear to be anybody who can step into that role for him.  At the moment you have to discriminate against Wigoon because of their recent form against Saints but it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion and both sides have shown that they can step up and compete even if it’s not been for a sustained run.  If Saints find that last week’s game has emptied their tank or the minor injuries picked up last week resurface there’s every reason to believe that the Warriors can give their success starved fans some internet bragging rights.  Still if they are to do that it is going to require them to play to their best ability defensively, stop the unforced errors, Saints to underperform and for Derren Brown to remove that mental block that remains more than a vestige in their mind.  I’ve got a feeling that this game is going to be closer than people think but it’s unlikely to be a classic with probably too many neutrals supporting the Warriors.  Saints by 4.

Last week’s predictions;

Leeds by 8 (won by 14)
Saints by 4 (won by 8 )
Catalans by 6 (won by 8 )
Wakefield by 4 (won by 4)
Wigoon by 4 (lost by 14)
Hull by 6 (won by 8 )

So a good week last week with five out of six with one full correct prediction and three very close ones, making the running total now 43-31 (58%).