XIII Oceans

Is it just me or is Danny Orr turning into Michael Stipe?  Onto this week’s previews…

Hull KR v Leeds
Now here’s a chance for a team to make a name for themselves.  After the pushing the champions all the way in Super League XIII’s opening game, Hull KR are faced with living up to that performance and a degree of expectation will be in the air.  Rovers have slid out of view in eighth position, despite lying just one point off third, so the pressure is off them delivering top six results week in week out which their opening form suggested.  Now they find themselves in the mix at the bottom end of the playoffs table with a competitive points difference and forthcoming matches with fellow post season contenders, Harlequins RL and the Giants.   An interesting few weeks for Rovers and they can start it with a win tonight that would be payback for that first round defeat.  Again it’s a tricky game to call, Leeds start as favourites and I expect them to win, however we’re not looking at Leeds with the same awe as we were a few weeks back.  The post-party loss to Castleford has been akin to buckling your wheel with the champs still heading in the right direction but on some hills they’ve been caught and on one overtaken.  Okay so there’s niggling injuries and a slight loss of form going against Leeds which narrows the gap between the two without giving Rovers a head start because even with those factors Leeds remain an excellent sight, competitive until the last minute and sometimes electric before then.  First hit out Hull KR were on a reasonably level footing, form was still to be found so ball handling wasn’t as smooth and such surprises have a tendency to decrease in frequency as the season goes along.  I’m holding out hope that Hull KR can dominate the Leeds pack, which I don’t think is beyond them as a side, control the football and more importantly defend well.  They should be able to force the Rhinos to break into a sweat and the Warriors have shown that if you compete with them physically and don’t allow them to settle, Leeds can be beaten.  Hull KR can raise their game so their fans are right to expect a good showing, I just think that the cup weekend will have allowed Leeds to recharge when they probably need it.  Leeds by 8.

Warrington v Saints
Amidst a week of game of the week contenders this is my selection because it’s a fixture that carries with it more than just a local rivalry in the frontier towns of Earlestown and Newton-le-Willows.  This is a game that has produced the most one-sided head-to-head result in Super League and now has the added drama of a team in crisis looking to overcome that hoodoo against all odds.  I’m not sure it could get that much worse for fans of the heavily tipped slumping side.  Following some good performances and results at the start of the season, inconsistency, poor defence and disappointing attitude has crept into their play and in conjunction with shock losses to Harlequins RL and at Wakefield they found themselves looking to arrest that slide with trips to Leeds and a homer against Saints.  There are no eyes of envy on Warrington over these two weekends.  Can the home team rock up and throw everything into this game to show us they’re not going to fade from view in the playoff picture?  I don’t think anybody really knows.  Early in the season confidence was good, results were and flashes of brilliance were on show but that loss to McDermott’s men has really flattened them leading them to face their least favourite opponents at a time when they’re struggling to inspire themselves to victory.  Okay, you can look at the players, their ability and the gameplans, usually managing to see how things are going to work out but league is as much about mental strength as it is skill and ability with this being one of those times where Warrington need to apply determination and resilience.  Warrington have to be more committed, more enthusiastic and more physical if they are to win this game because I don’t think they can wait around to see if the passes stick or whether Briers’ latest Airbus pass hits its target or not.  At times like this when things aren’t connecting you need to hustle and bustle to make something happen to give you that confidence, which is something that Harlequins RL do well so its no coincidence that Wire’s poor run of form happened then.  It was a theory designed to test the coaching credentials of Paul Cullen.  Can Cullen lift his men?  Is this the time that Warrington lift themselves above their rivals?  I don’t think you will find one statistic that will support that they can.  The odds have been better before and worse results have followed so whilst the two teams are level on points and Saints are hardly in blistering form themselves the weight of historical results plays a part in this fixture even though coach after coach will tell you they don’t.  For me, Saints at Warrington is normally a keenly-fought, entertaining encounter full of drama and excitement.  Warrington might not be in that run of form that would have you fancying them for the win yet I still expect Cullen’s dictionary diatribe to rouse a competitive display from his troops that puts them in the running for at least sixty minutes of the game, after that history suggests Saints will take the two points which is difficult to go against.  Saints by 4.

Catalans v Castleford
Who can stop the Dragons?  The form team of the competition can recognise the contribution their Saints-bound coach has made by propelling themselves to second in the table, if only for a day.  At the beginning of the season there wouldn’t have been many people who would have said that the Dragons would be so high up the table at any point in the season but they are and although this middle act presents them with some tough away games at Saints, Bradford and Hull they should still be in the playoff hunt come the final third of the season.  Castleford unfortunately capitulated at The Stoop last week as Harlequins RL just ran through them in a very disappointing second half for the Tigers.  Can they hope to push the Dragons close on their own turf?  People say that Catalans are strong at home but I don’t see them as being stronger at home than most other teams and I think the defeats and draw support that so it stands that they must have improved away from home.  What does this mean for the Tigers chances?  I’d say not much which isn’t to undermine Castleford but is to fold my opinion up and tuck it in behind the Dragons form.  Castleford have certainly played in spurts this year and them performing at a level that can compete with the third placed side is something that I fancy might happen on Saturday, however I can’t see that Potter will let his side undo the good work they’ve done away from home with defeat here.  Catalans by 6.

Wakefield v Harlequins
Regular SKY Saturday night viewers will remember the mess that the first game between these two was and will be hoping for no repeat this weekend.  That night Wakefield turned on the Kear gears in the first half only to find their handling dawdling behind their creativity, consequently allowing Harlequins to regroup at the break and exploit the loss of Jason The Argonaut to good effect.  How is this one going to work out?  Well Wakefield banished their zero away wins column at Huddersfield, following that up with Sunday’s cup win and now they should feel quite confident that, at home, they can turn over Harlequins, who lie above them by one point in the table.  Just how close is this competition so far?  Wakefield who have stuttered along this year, fighting against key personnel losses, are within immediate striking distance of the playoffs and that’s something that won’t have escaped Kear’s attention.  How is this one going to pan out?  Difficult to say because these are two different football teams, Wakefield mixing the more traditional expansive game with the modern needs of collision competency whereas Harlequins revel in that physical contest which is something that we’ve not been able to say since the days of Peter Gill.  Away from home utilising the ball in the manner that Wakefield do can prove a problem against fired up hosting sides, but at home there’s usually some scope for error without punishment on the scoreboard.  Harlequins’ RL tight game can be a perfect counter to that and their second half against Castleford was great for their burgeoning confidence, another win here and I think they can talk seriously of a playoff place.  As it happens, I’ve gone against Harlequins RL when I’ve been right to and they’ve overturned my prediction so my standard prediction of a Harlequins RL loss goes in here and I think that because Wakefield are a bit more intelligent in their use of the ball this is a top six pressurising victory for Wakefield.  Wakefield by 4.

Bradford v Wigoon
Fifth hosts second in my backup game of the week, a match-up that has lost some of the pizzazz of earlier Super League years as both teams attempt to get back in amongst the trophies.  Saddened by the news that Trent Barrett may well be putting his villa in Whelley up for sale, I don’t think the visitors’ fans will be looking at this game with any fear.  In the last meeting the ball was on the floor more times than Didier Drogba and the Warriors reluctantly accepted control of the game forging out an important and relatively safe win.  Steve McNamara has his side tucked nicely in behind the leaders, within striking range moreover his side’s loss at Hull KR is not as big a surprise as it would have been twelve months ago so the Bulls are considered to be a side in better form than most.  Are they really though?  Just look at those victories that they’ve had in recent weeks, at Hull and two home games against Castleford and an injured ruptured Harlequins RL side, hardly turned-the-corner stuff.  I’m sure Brian Noble will be aware of that fact and there’ll be some mention of it in his preparation because good results can create the impression of mental toughness when really there’s none there.  Now I’m not dismissing the Bulls or their league position I’m saying that after that drubbing Leeds gave them they’ve won three out of the next four league games with the one they lost being the not only the most recent but probably most challenging.  This to me suggests that the Bulls had done what was expected of them in their three wins and nothing more.  Who do you go for?  Both are coming off loses in the last round of Super League matches but because there’s a cup game between them does that mean losing two games in a row is now out of the window?  If it does that alters things dramatically.  If it doesn’t, that record the Warriors have of not losing two games in a row since August is looking good for pushing them to another win here and I think that this Wigoon team, welcoming back several regulars, has  more resilience and spirit in them than their receding opponents.  Wigoon by 4.

Hull v Huddersfield
Two teams fighting for scraps and coattails of those above, hoping to not fall out of the playoff race.  Losing here does not mean that you’re out of the picture for some knockout football with things so close up above, however the way that the competition is playing out this year, coupled with each team demonstrating that they can compete at higher levels than before, it’s going to be hard to get back up the table with so many ahead of you.  One thing that these two teams have shown though is that they can count amongst their accomplishments second half of the season surges going into that postseason and I see no reason why that kind of effort can’t be repeated.  Huddersfield took the two points at home and the expectation is here that the home team will be able to secure the points again this time.  I can’t really disagree with that.  At Castleford I was expecting the Tigers to be fired up enough to unnerve Hull still Hull showed poise in traversing The Jungle, hacking through a pretty lame defence.  Huddersfield are unlikely to give Peter Sharp relaxing thoughts and he will point to them putting on a couple of good shows this year.  Sadly for Giants fans though that regularity hasn’t appeared, leaving them to look forward to another surge which will gradually moves towards the status of miracle as each loss comes along.  Numerous times this year I’ve made reference to the Giants pack and I’m on the verge of giving up talking about it if they lose here.  It’s more than good on paper, I’ve seen it perform in the flesh so my constant harping on about it is getting as stale as Warrington’s Brasso.  Hull are a team that I’ve not backed often this year, here though I see this as a good test of them, one that they can pass and give themselves some belief that they can get back into contention.  What a good way to prepare for a derby match.  Hull by 6.

Last round’s predictions;

Tigers by 4 (lost by 20)
Leeds by 10 (won by 20)
Saints by 6 (won by 46)
Wigoon by 10 (lost by 2)
Giants by 8 (lost by 2)
Bulls by 6 (lost by 2)

Another stinker there with only two correct predictions although only three of those results were as the bookies predicted and there’s three two-point games in there as well.  You’ve got to love this competition this year.  Overall it’s 38-30 (56%), mid-table mediocrity for me.