XIII Oceans

We’re nine rounds into Super League XIII and although there’s a clear favourite for this year’s competition I wanted to say that it’s been tricky predicting many of the results this season, more so than any other season I think. This weekend offers only one game for me where there’s no clear favourite and that’s Hull trip to Perpignan. Out of the rest I think there’s a relatively clear favourite to take the points but even then none are really foregone conclusions and as fans I’m not sure we could ask for much more than that. I’m not saying that you don’t have matches that you expect to win, of course you do, but by and large these are home games. Send your team on a trip to another team’s playground and I think you would find that the majority of supporters would now be looking at each away trip as a game in which they know they could easily lose if the opposition plays well.

We’re not talking about a dilution of the competition as some may say, we’re talking about intensity in every match and knowing that if you’re not on your game for the full eighty minutes that a side that is can win the game against form. This last week we had Castleford, who are managing to get to grips with the competition as each week goes on, almost capturing the two points against Warrington on Easter Monday when, in theory, they have no right to. I would imagine that every Warrington fan was expecting to take the two points in that game but I expect that most of them would also be thinking that should Castleford get it together they could upset the odds. Of course, newly promoted teams will eventually start to reduce the number of errors in their game but the pleasing thing with Castleford is the commitment to youth which would probably not be as extensive if relegation was in play. Instead of seeing overseas signings clogging up the first seventeen the Tigers, as is the norm in Super League, are giving youngsters a chance and that can only be good for the game. Would this be the case if relegation was in the frame? Would it be the case for other sides if they weren’t restricted to a salary cap? Two straightforward questions that we should all consider.

(+4) Saints v Leeds
This has to go down as the game of the week with a lot of the British rugby league watching public hoping that Saints can muster some sort of opposition to a Leeds side that appears to be in complete control of their own destiny for this year. Two years ago Saints themselves raised the bar in this competition with a benchmark season during which they lost four games all by four points or less. It was a seminal year in Super League as Saints defence suffocated pretty much every single team in the competition, making each ball carrying player fight for every single inch going forward. Have we reached another seminal year with the Rhinos? Is this current side the logical successor? Of course, it’s too early in the competition to state with anything other than pure speculation that this Leeds side will be hailed by many as the best their club has ever produced. However, all the signs are there for Leeds and unlike in previous years they are looking every much like a championship winning side with the ball, which is not something that you could honestly say about them before this season. Yes, Leeds have sought to promote the ball previously but they have never managed to link up and offload like they have done this season and it’s not just a highlight of their play to see a forward pushing through the tackler and offloading to a runner on their shoulder, it’s also becoming a trademark for this year’s team. Brian McClennan has taken this side forward, in attack, in defence and more importantly in self-belief. Leeds now have a mental toughness that Tony Smith wasn’t able to instil on a consistent basis and if you’re looking at what you need to win the title and what others are missing at the moment it’s that. It’s not often that I’ve said this but a try and keeping the opposition under forty would be manageable as a home fan. Leeds by 12.

Wigoon v Wakefield (+12)
As expected, Wigoon were able to put behind them their Good Friday horror show and barge Hull KR off what would have been a tremendous four point weekend. Not only did it protect their bouncebackability status it also sets them up for Wakefield, a side that has improved away from home without getting any reward from that improvement. Throw into that mix Brough’s absence and I can’t see the Wildcats troubling arguably the league’s most mysterious side. Richie Mathers returns for the home team forcing the debate towards whether Pat Richards, who has impressed at full back, should stay there. The choice between Richards, who is proving to be one of the most reliable performers in Super League, and Mathers is an interesting one. Mathers was sounded out by many opposition fans as being a gamble, because of his injuries and known weak defence, which has been noticed by Warriors fans as well. Do you slot Richards into that role and reduce the impact he has with the high kicks? It’s tricky. You can say that Richards can drop onto the wing for the final tackle but I think that in doing so you take away something from his and the team’s game. I doubt that the third tackle bomb to him from Barrett a couple of weeks ago would have happened had he been at full back and whilst Richards has that phobia about running his own body weight he still is a handful close to the line. Richards on the wing, take a chance with Mathers at full back because Wakefield won’t be strong enough to punish him this weekend. Wigoon by 14.

(+6) Catalans v Hull
If I wasn’t going to the game of the week, this is the other game that I’d be most interested in attending, not just for the language difficulties that would arise for me although I do speak enough French to get by with one set of supporters. No, this game is a hard game for Hull to win yet it’s a game that their fans will be looking at as one that they need to push for a win because it’s the Bulls at home next week, which certainly isn’t a should-win. Can Hull do it? I don’t know. From the start of the season and through last season, to some extent, I’ve looked at their attack and see nothing that would give me any hope that the return of two very good props would alleviate. Okay, Richard Horne returning would mean that there’s a couple of tries a year from his close yardage play but there still remains that lack of verve when they do have the ball. Against Catalans you might be able to get away with not being adventurous with the ball because you can usually rely on them having periods during the game when they’re going to suffer fumble frenzies which means you will get opportunities against them. This all dovetails quite nicely into another one of those games where you can’t pick out, with conviction, who is going to walk away with the two points. Like most of the closer match-ups you have to look at pure form and home advantage to see if there’s something outside of the starting seventeen that gives an indication as to where the points are going to go. Hull are missing perhaps too many key players to guarantee a win in this one I think and the chance to win four in a row is probably too good for Potter’s players to pass up. Catalans by 6.

Warrington v Harlequins (+12)
A couple of weeks ago this Saturday tussle would have had people talking about a potential humdinger, free-scoring Warrington up against a tight defensive Harlequins. Sadly injuries in the Harlequins squad have shed light on the rest of their players and I don’t think it’s disrespectful to say that Brian McDermott is still in the process of building up his side, particularly underneath the first seventeen. The very fact that we’re allowed to talk about Harlequins actually just needing a bit more time to bring through their own youngsters is progress in itself and perhaps proof of the benefits of how youth development and its importance is enhanced by the salary cap. Last year Warrington would have the majority of fans backing them but with many still undecided. It still grates with some sections of the Warrington support that not everyone is praising their efforts and pushing their case for expected participation in one of this year’s finals and I can understand why that is. This year Warrington’s results speak for themselves in justifying Wire fans’ complaints about any scepticism without completely satisfying those for whom doubts remain and I include myself in that crowd. I don’t think anyone will be backing against Warrington, however even a comfortable win in this game, which is what it should be, won’t remove reservations that people have about Cullen’s defensive coaching which is still an uncertainty for his supporters. It’s unlikely that Harlequins will push Warrington too much in this encounter and they’ll be relying on another strong showing without the ball to keep them in this game so the question will be how long can Harlequins keep that attack at bay. Warrington by 18.

Bradford v Castleford (+16)
Joe Westerman is attracting a lot of plaudits after only a few games in the top flight and rightfully so. Compared already to back-to-back Man of Steel winner, Paul Sculthorpe, it’s fair to say that he’s performing better than I remember either Sculthorpe or Farrell doing at the same age. Hopefully Castleford can tie the future international into a long-term deal to prevent him going to one of the bigger clubs and I include my own in that. Asking him and Sherwin to construct a victory over at Odsal is going to be tough though. It’s not that the Bulls are flying high, they aren’t, but they usually have enough to beat the Tigers at home. Bulls by 14.

Hull KR v Huddersfield (+4)
Huddersfield coach Jon Sharp said his side have “started to earn the respect of the whole rugby league world” and I am not one to argue with that. It didn’t take a win over Saints to confirm that to me (I was already there) and although that win was tremendous it’s in games like these where the lesser teams earn their respect. Every side can pull a win out against one of the competition favourites so the focus for the Giants and Rovers, turns towards how they do against sides of perceived similar ability and aspirations. At home the Giants are a match for anyone this year, away remains the place where they need to rise to the occasion and this game is a chance for them to announce themselves this year. Kevin Brown was impressive against Saints and despite his slight stature he promises to break through the advantage line when he takes on the defence. Rovers’ defence though is strong and like Huddersfield they are a physical side, probably harder than the Giants can handle away from home. There’s power and skill in both sides, however I feel that Rovers, who pushed Wigoon for the points on Easter Monday, just have that extra class that can prove a difference at home. Against Hull, Rovers were strong and more importantly clever and I expect that combined with the Giants inconsistency during games to be too much for Sharp’s men. Hull KR by 8.

Easter Monday’s predictions;

Bulls by 18 (won by 8 )
Warrington by 14 (won by 3)
Catalans by 5 (won by 8 )
Saints by 8 (lost by 2)
Leeds by 10 (won by 26)
Wigoon by 10 (won by 6)

Third round in a row for five out of six correct making it 32-16 or two out of every three games correct.