XIII Oceans

Hull v Wakefield (+12)
Saints’ most recent get-out-of-jail-card victims clash for what could be an entertaining game.  I say could be because they’re also teams that without form can give you the scrappiest of games.  Logic says six rounds in still isn’t competency week so I’m guessing it might just be one of those testing games to watch.  After Brough’s attempt to claim the two points at Knowsley Road two weeks ago, Adam Dykes poked for the leaks last week and like Wakefield was denied in true Entertainment with a capital E style.  Of the two teams Wakefield showed a lot more imagination with the ball, John Kear applying some great strategy by just bombarding Saints with big man after big man.  Hull’s strength I thought was a clever ball control game supported by strong defence.  What difference that is going to make is disputable.  Kear might try the same power game off the bench here and it could well work so maybe it’s a chance worth taking with Hull missing their two main props.  Does that play into Hull’s hands?  Hull are relatively tough to run over and at home they can go above determined football and take you to the cleaners.  Halfway through the season I’d be expecting Hull to have overcome their ball retention issues whereas I would probably vision Wakefield still lacking consistency in that area.  Right now though I think the home advantage coupled with Wakefield backing up after two tough games favours Hull in a game they’d expect to win at any stage of this season.  Hull by 4.

Leeds v Harlequins RL (+14)
Indisputable game of the week as first takes on second.  I’ve continued to back against Harlequins, home, away, against lesser opposition, against the run of form but not against Leeds.  That Harlequins are so far up the table at this stage is very credible and demands more than simple patronising platitudes and observations.  The teams that have lost to Harlequins don’t lend themselves to a dissection of the greatest talent in the league, however on-paper teams have failed where Harlequins have succeeded and its no coincidence that the two teams leading the competition have conceded the least points.  Leeds will be missing Matt Diskin whilst Henry Paul sits this one out for Harlequins.  How much of an influence that will have on the result I’m not sure.  The Tower Of Strength, Jamie Peacock comes back from a week’s rest so expect a different side this Friday to last and in front of what’s likely to be a big crowd for their first game as new World Club Champions.  Castleford played well last week and nobody is taking anything away from that victory by suggesting that Leeds may have been a bit bleary eyed in attitude.  With Saints at Catalans and Warrington at Bradford there’s every chance that Leeds could be sitting four points clear of the pack with only six rounds gone and last week’s loss won’t matter if that’s the case.  Points difference gives us little difference between the two teams but you only have to glance down the OPTA stats to see that there is.  Harlequins lie second in the number of tackles made so far during this season and have racked up over 250 more than Leeds who have a made the second lowest in the league.  Their defence will be put to the test against a Leeds side that sits 300m ahead of their closest rival, Wigoon, in metres made, tops the offload and tackle bust totals and lies second in the number of clean breaks made.  This is a completely different side to what Harlequins have played before and some stats don’t lie so the visitors will need to defend exceptionally well.  Most  Harlequins fans are used to this now but I can’t see a repetition of last week’s dumping of the champions.  Leeds by 16.

(+6) Catalans Dragons v Saints
The X-Factor audition of RL over in Perpignan sees the Dragons looking to secure some treasure in the form of two points from a Saints side that’s snatched victory at the death in consecutive home games.  In both of those games it was the forwards that set the tone of the match with Wakefield rotating four forwards off the bench and Hull finding it relatively easy to make yards against Saints.  We all know that the one thing that Catalans have brought with their forwards is size.  It was something that the rest of the league probably thought they would struggle with before they were integrated into the competition.  After various performances over the past two years any questions on their pack focus on defensive tenacity so they should be able to make yards going forward against a Saints defence that has held its own when it’s needed to.  Both sides are missing key players and the last two home results for Saints suggest that this is a home win for Catalans with Potter keen to impress.  Saints haven’t got a great record at the Dragons lair and although it’s certainly within their reach I think that Catalans’ power will just catch up with Saints’ lack of weight in defence.  Catalans by 6.

Hull KR v Castleford (+
Terrific win last week at home leads to a tough game on the road for Cas and despite those heroics I can’t see past a home win.  Hull KR continue to push the results and have been unlucky in all their defeats this year with those close results surely proving enough motivation for them to produce a positive scoreline this week.  Brent Sherwin turned in a man of the match performance last week and he will need some good support for the Tigers to mount a serious threat in this one.  The lack of physical strength in the pack was highlighted prior to the start of the season and it shows with Castleford sitting next to bottom in number of metres made.  Some of that can be put down to the fact that the Tigers concede yardage and points, placing greater emphasis on the need for their defence to perform.  However, you’re struggling in Super League if you can’t move the ball away from your own line and you give good field position to your opponent.  Hull KR have invested wisely in their pack, competed in every game and done so without really promoting the ball in a manner that we have become used to.  A tight, efficient outfit is what Hull KR are turning into and a side with good ball control can quite easily wear you down, putting you in positions you do not want to be trying to play football in.  Hull KR by 12.
 

Bradford v Warrington (Scratch)
A last minute win saved the Bulls from starting this week in the bottom three as their attention now shifts towards facing up to the most potent attacking outfit in Super League.  That was a bonus win which really didn’t ease the pressure on the players or coaching staff because Sunday’s game is two points that you can’t switch off for but anticipate winning.  At the moment the season is still a struggle to find their feet for the former champions and I’m not sure that a resurgent Warrington team are what you’d want to be facing.  It’s not that Warrington don’t have moments of spontaneous human combustion, they may even be the most frequent of those teams that experience it, it’s that they are in their best form of the professional era.  Just one loss sits under that big L and Big L is the kind of player that the Bulls have relied on in the past to spark them out of a rut.  Last week’s win can realign the home team to a winning spirit in the players if it’s followed up with a win here.  Progress in performance is not enough for McNamara in this fixture, already we’re looking at yet another key game for his side.  Warrington announced that they were genuine contenders by beating a twelve man Wigoon side and although harsh critics would point out that some decisions may have gone their way they won’t be able to ignore that their forwards had a good workout too.  Form points towards an away win and Warrington have managed it before in more trying circumstances and form but there’s that feeling that everyone must have about the Bulls that they can’t sit this still for so long.  There must be a time when they get their game together, however I’m not sure that they’re ready to return to there and similarly I’m not sure that they’re going to flop about in the mud giving us all a laugh either.  Draw. 

(+2) Huddersfield v Wigoon
Wigoon’s loss to Warrington was overshadowed by Hollywood Ganson accusations whilst Huddersfield’s failure to register a score sank into the background as the RL public sought to give Harlequins some well deserved recognition.  I’ve said several times this year that you can’t read too much into some results and I believe that last week’s defeats don’t hold too many clues to these team’s chances this weekend.  Both teams were on their travels against sides that can turn it on at home and did.  If either side’s result was more easily explained away it is the visitors who can offer over-zealous officials and ill-discipline as reasons for not competing as well as they can.  Stats wise, the teams are very similar with the only significant differences being Huddersfield’s propensity to run from dummy half and the amount of tackles they have made.  To counter that Wigoon have shown themselves to make more tackles around the ruck than any other side with 206 compared to the Giants’ 99, which is second from bottom in the league.  With tight games you tend to look at the line-ups and see which team has the personnel to give it an edge which pushes you towards the bigger names of Wigoon.  Huddersfield won’t mind that.  In recent years they’ve handed out some beatings to better teams that this so Trent Barrett’s name on the team sheet won’t stick too much in the mind for a side that has trampled all over reputations before.  You can’t complain about difficult to call games when they match up as well as this.  Who do you go for?  The home team that’s just been kept scoreless by a team tipped to finish in the bottom three or a squad of reputations that are not just reputations on paper?  Brian Noble won’t be thinking about maintaining his side’s unbeaten derby run next week, he’ll be aiming to bury last week and get his side playing rugby again.  Although Huddersfield have dominated this team before I worry about a side that can’t score against Harlequins when I probably shouldn’t.  Noble’s knows what to expect from Huddersfield and I think that the Giants dummy half game plays right into the hands of an outfit that hasn’t lost two games in a row since early August last year.  Wigoon by 4.

Last week’s predictions

Leeds by 14 (lost by 1
Saints by 12 (won by 1)
Bulls by 8 (won by 2)
Gaints by 4 (lost by 24)
Wigoon by 4 (lost by 12)
Wakefield by 2 (won by 2)

Some big blow outs there tagged with a perfect prediction making the overall total 17-13 (57%).