XIII Oceans

(+16) Castleford v Leeds

If you were going to pick a side to play after you’ve just been out partying, celebrating your first trophy of an anticipated quadruple, a team sat at the bottom of the league and still trying to find their feet would probably be your first choice for a holiday.  Leeds went head to head with Melbourne last week, triumphing without really being pushed, which isn’t to say that the Storm were pushed that much either.  A harder game this weekend could have been an interesting draw, instead the onus of responsibility for ending this unbeaten run falls to the team least likely to.  Castleford are at full strength after showing some spirit last week and the longer than they sit at the foot with zero points the more they will need to call upon that spirit.  Hopefully Matterson is getting across to the players the importance of confidence and of not letting depression run unchecked through their minds because this plugging away at the beginning of the season can bring benefits later this season and for the next.  You don’t need to have the RL insight of The King Of The Internet to know that Castleford could raise their game and still come down on the opposite side of a forty point winning margin with Leeds’ superior fitness levels allowing the world champions to push on once the Tigers have burnt themselves out.  It’s SKY’s game of the week and that’s probably more surprising than the result will be.  Leeds by 14. 

Saints v Hull (+10)

At any other point during the past three years this would probably have been the pick of the round’s action.  Injuries mean that this game is unlikely to be of the standard we’re used to between these teams, nevertheless there remains a stream of good forwards and backs playing for both teams.  Last weekend Hull were drilled into submission by the Giants, which was a result more consistent with this season’s performances than their sole win of the campaign so far.  The Giants have a big pack and whilst Dowes and Carvell are huge losses, facing a Saints side that is missing three international props might even be preferable to tackling Eorl Crabtree’s mucky streaks.  The lack of even a second choice starting front row for both teams should move this game away from the standard biff, bash, bosh approach, or alternatively allow players like Radford to look like world beaters with the big men missing.  Hull don’t have, what for them are key players and that appears to have been overlooked amidst the crisis that has hit the league at the start of the season.  How much of this is genuine and how much of this is Peter Sharp floundering around for more excuses after his decline from Grand Final inspirer to derby dodo?  I’m inclined to say that some of the blame can be left at the foot of the Gremlins.  Horne, Yeaman and Whiting are good club players that aren’t easily replaced and other sporadic injuries like Dykes and Berrigan disrupt team cohesion so it’s difficult for your side to build form and momentum whilst critical playmakers are out of the side.  However I look down that Hull line up and I don’t see a side that should be held to just one try in two of the four opening rounds.  What I do see is a side that, since Paul Cooke’s departure have even less moves now that he’s taken his long pass to the left and kick behind the threequarters with him.  Hull fans laughed when Saints fans referred to their side as only having those two moves and now they don’t even have them.  Sharp must be praying that Dykes and Berrigan can give him something extra in attack because he’s not been able to generate it himself and when you look at how John Kear has Wakefield playing rugby at times I think the finger is slowly moving closer to pointing at Sharp.  Saints by 12.

(+6) Catalans v Bulls

Which is worse?  No Joe Vagana or no Casey McGuire?  Which is worse three sin binnings or playing like the Bulls did last week?  All the criticisms of the Bulls half backs over recent years crashed together last week with a disorganised, dispirited and frankly lifeless outing furthering the calls for McNamara’s head.  Iestyn was spared from another ineffective eighty as Ben Jeffries was left to shoulder some of the blame whilst Paul Deacon stayed clear of the flak thanks to his kicking game.  It’s amazing to know that Paul Deacon, as a lad, collected the award for top try scorer across all age groups whilst at Hindley RL because he poses less threat to the advantage line than a mistimed Gallipoli assault.  We had Sam Burgess flying around like the new cop on the block tying to bust everyone’s ass for the most minor misdemeanours before Stuart Fielden’s cheekbone reminded him that strong defensive play requires technique as well as uncontrolled playground aggression.  Joe Vagana disappeared from the field and so with it went the Bulls chances.  Travelling to Catalans is usually a tough trip for any side but the losses of Carlaw and McGuire for about a month should make it easier for the Bulls to return to form.  Mike Potter’s audition for the Saints role isn’t exactly running smoothly and an out of sorts Bulls is a scalp waiting to be taken.  I’ve not seen or heard enough about the Dragons to give me hope that they can push the Bulls further away from the top spots and even when not performing the Bulls have that power that can get them through poor periods of form against the lesser teams.  Bulls by 8.  

(+6) Harlequins v Huddersfield

How brilliant it would be for these two teams to be in similar positions come playoff time.  Fourth at home to sixth with the only defeats coming by way of losses to Wigoon, Bradford and Leeds.  Is this the first true test of each team’s ability?  I think it is for Harlequins.  Their fans will quite rightly tell you that they fully deserve their three wins, two of which were on the road at Castleford and Hull, tell me which group of fans would not be happy about that.  Great stuff and yet I still remain to be convinced about Harlequins, to the extent that last week I backed Cas to turn them over, which they nearly did.  I don’t think I’m wrong in my continual asking of questions about Harlequins because you expect any side to come away with the points against a newly promoted side, this early in the competition anyway.  The closeness of the results suggests to me that my reservations are not unfounded which is why I look to this game for a more accurate measurement of their prospects.  The Giants can give the London forwards some opposition and their backs can stretch their legs when given the chance with some solid creative players hustling away inbetween those groups.  Interestingly on the stat front, Kevin Brown leads the competition in tackle busts and Rob Purdham tops the tackle count.  It’s unlikely that either of these facts will be critical in determining the result and Huddersfield’s two wins have been convincing whereas London’s three haven’t.  Funnily enough Castleford, Wakefield and Hull, the three teams these clubs have beaten between them have committed more errors than any other teams in the league with the exception of the Bulls who have committed one less than Hull.  Bearing that in mind, my suggestion that this is a defining match has its own question mark hovering over it but this game should allow us to appraise Harlequins position which is why I predict a third consecutive win for the Giants.  Giants by 4.

Warrington v Wigoon (+6)

The Double Ewe New Wave fans from both clubs are unlikely to have been out of primary school the last time that Warrington and Wigoon occupied second and third spot in the table and even a more seasoned supporter like myself would have to hazard a guess at it being the year that the title was handed over to the devil with Smith fiddling in exchange.  Undoubtedly game of the week and not just because of the positions in the table.  Both teams claimed the points last time out and against teams that we’re struggling to get a reliable perspective about.  Wigoon’s win was tempered by a mixed display against a team that were found in Page 492 of my dictionary hiding underneath the word ‘flat’.  It was a scrappy game with occasional glimpses of quality, Barrett’s kick for Richards being a play that could grace any game.  In the forwards Stuart Fielden returned and managed to stay clear of Sam Burgess’ persistent attempts to clean him out, whilst Thomas Leuluai has given his supporters reason to believe that he’s not a dud.  The visitor’s forward strength has been questionable in recent years and nothing has happened this year for us to state that it no longer is, leading to this game which is a game against a set of men that on paper could unleash a powerful back division if they could be arsed/more consistent (delete according to your bias).  It’s a very interesting match up for a neutral, the forwards aren’t too different, perhaps Warrington possess more power, Wigoon a higher workrate and the backs contain some of the best players in Super League in their positions with the edge going to the home side.  Mix into that balance defences that don’t appear to be that tight and we could be looking at another sixty point thriller.  It’s a difficult game to call.  Okay, the Bulls are struggling this year and were abysmal at the Stade De La Cruste but that game still needed winning, the weather was poor and we are talking about Warrington here, a side that has been only been consistent with its inconsistency.  Psychologically I see Warrington having the greater confidence and with their goal line attack it’s a test of Noble’s coaching ability to stop it now that it’s getting to be a known quantity.  Wigoon have a mobile pack, Hock has shown semblances of the form that made him an international and they can make an argument that they should be unbeaten this year without even having played well.  This is a test for both.  Can Warrington prove their mettle and at the same time expose Wigoon’s fragility or will they succumb to their designated role of pretenders and blow this opportunity for an amazing start to the season?  Wigoon by 4.  

Wakefield v Hull KR (Scratch)

A simply divine performance last week by Danny Brough almost delivered two points for Wakefield and as close as the final result was it really wasn’t an indicator of how in control the Wildcats were at Knowsley Road.  Saints truly stole the points last week and not because they were unlucky to fall behind, they were simply outplayed by a side that a couple of years ago received several nominations for ‘Best Away Team Performance’ on the Saints fans’ forum.  The fact that both teams are coming off a loss means that this isn’t my game of the week and it also means that it’s going to be difficult to predict who is likely to return to winning ways.  At the start of the season I tipped Hull KR for just missing out on the playoffs and as each week has gone on I’ve started to look at them as serious contenders for some postseason action, the result against Warrington cast doubts in my mind.  Not enough doubt though, because anyone who has seen Warrington this year will know that redzone attack is lethal and it’s no surprise that they slit somebody’s throat with it.  We know that Hull KR came back strong, possibly because of a change in attitude from the visitors, more likely Rovers recovered from being stunned.  I believe that Rovers can come away from Wakey with the two points and it is one of those fixtures that Morgan will be circling as a potential away win, which any team with playoff aspirations needs to rattle up to make it.  John Kear, on the other hand, will have a similar circling of this game with less potential and more must win.  We don’t need to analyse the implications that a loss at home to a bottom half team does for anyone so we know there’s more pressure on the home side for this game.  Honestly I feel that I should be going with Hull KR for this game, they have better players and better form behind them.  However, at Saints last week, Brough working behind his pack turned in the kind of showing that even though it didn’t take the points it should somehow entice a prediction from me for them because I owe them that.  Hull KR’s pack isn’t as weak as Saints is at the moment and I know that could be enough to turn the game their way but I can’t overlook Wakefield’s efforts.  Wakefield by 2.

Last week’s predictions;

Leeds by 10 (won by 7)Wigoon by 4 (won by 14)