XIII Oceans

Leeds v Melbourne (+
Had this been at the end of last year, offering us a suitably fitting climax to the rugby league season, we would be as excited about this game as the teams’ fans themselves.  Sadly the competitions can’t agree to come to a decision about such a finale, leaving us with a preseason fixture that has managed to become a game that takes place after the start of our season.  Brilliant idea to load the game in favour of the British side when in actuality I think Leeds would have given Melbourne a game in a one off end-of-year special anyway.  Instead we’re conned into going in for this unofficial WCC that for all intents and purposes is a preseason game for the Australians and a corporate merchandising tool for a successful British side.  There’s nothing wrong with that, having been witness to several WCC games, both as neutral and supporter of a team, they do allow the fans of the teams participating to get excited and earn some bragging rights if they do win.  So whatever the outcome tonight you can guarantee that whoever wins it will not feel this meaningless.

I don’t know how much of the NRL that you get to watch.  If it’s plenty then my next comments won’t surprise you, if you don’t watch the NRL I am not exaggerating.  Last year’s Melbourne Storm sides has to rank as one of the best that I’ve seen in recent years.  This is a big, physical side that can equal and surpass your pack.  They have a wealth of attacking options and more importantly know how to use them in such a manner that, like with most great teams, most of these players would be significantly less effective in any other side.  We’re about to witness that with Matt King over here, although the drop off in the standard of the competition won’t allow that to be as noticeable (any Warrington fan who takes offence at me suggesting that Melbourne are a hugely better side than their own team has no right to free thought after such a farcical reaction).  Like many, I would have loved to see these two sides go head-to-head at their peak and despite the Storm’s quality I think Leeds could compete with them in an official World Club Challenge.

Due to the nature of this contest and it’s positioning in the season I think that any detailed analysis of strengths and weaknesses for the two sides is a bit dreamy because nobody knows what to expect from the NRL champions in what is a warm-up game for them.   They’re missing the current Kangaroos captain, Golden Boot winner, last year’s State Of Origin player of the series, 2006 Dally M award winner and team leader Cameron Smith.  Also missing will be last year’s NRL Grand Final man of the match and former rookie of the year Greg Inglis.  Wow!  When put like that you know that this is a side to be reckoned with, when at full strength.  It’d be unfair to dismiss any Australian side’s chances in this sport but I think that the losses of these two players, coupled with Leeds’ game-hardened edge, will reduce this match down to a comfortable win for the home side.  To lose Inglis is a loss but to add the best player in the world to that would be like removing Peacock and Sinfield from the Leeds side, if not more.  Leeds by 10.

Wigoon v Bradford (+2)
Tough opponent to face when you’re looking to establish some bouncebackability and these teams need this for different reasons.  Wigoon’s record against Hull is impressive enough for me to state that their last trip has registered a bit of disappointment for their fans, especially with Hull’s depleted first seventeen.  However, that disappointment is a lot less than Bulls fans who would have expected to have beaten Saints, if not before the game then certainly five minutes in when Nick Fozzard left the field.  As stated last week if the Bulls lost I expected there would be the first murmurings of fans questioning McNamara’s ability as a coach.  Fair?  I think so.  I questioned his initial appointment because a club with the Bulls stature, pedigree and expectation took a real gamble on a guy with a wafer thin coaching CV.  Some fans (and I am not specifically referring to Bulls fans) seem to believe that coaching in RL is something that you can just walk into if you’ve played the game.  I’ve never heard anything as stupid in my life.  Like any coaching role, you need to learn how to coach first and whilst McNamara may well have potential, for me he’s been thrust into a shaken pop bottle job without having really established a name for himself.  Where does this leave him now, after last week’s defeat?  Who is under the greater pressure this weekend? 

It’s at home for Wigoon so there’ll be less hope, more belief, about a win and probably less panic.  Recalling the last time that Bradford lost three out of their first four games would probably take us back to the days before Brian Smith and Bulls fan will not be happy at being put in such a situation.  The increase in strength of the competition in league offers the Bulls a tricky away trip to France, a possible banana skin against a dangerous Warrington side before an away match at the champions.  That schedule doesn’t do any favours for a side that could be off to their worst start in years so they need a victory to prevent that.  For Wigoon this is a very good test of their general ability.  Fielden might be on the bench but remains missing from the starting line up and there’s a real test for their hard working back rowers.  Saints managed to halt the Bulls pack with only one front line prop on the field so it is possible and the home side have some young muscle supporting Feka.  It’s a difficult game to call.  There’s no real feeling with these two teams that one is guaranteed to beat the other.  We’ve all seen games between these two clubs where form has played little part in determining the result, which is fortunate because neither side really has any.  What they both have though is the same need to win but for different reasons and I think that although Wigoon’s inconsistency would stop me from putting money on them, they have home support that has improved immeasurably over the past nine years, Bradford still remain a side that you can put on the back foot with a good kicking game and Iestyn Harris is now less mobile and of use than the Bismarck.   Wigoon by 4.

(+6) Castleford v Harlequins
Some Cas fans have condemned themselves mentally to a year of development, building a side around young stars Owen and Westerman.  As difficult to take as that will be for the locals there’s a reality edge in it and I think that the rest of the league would like to see the fans remain patient and get some reward for that.  The results from the last two rounds inspire zero confidence in the Tigers, shipping sixty one week and being lucky to not ship fifty in the other.  It’s a long season, fortunately.  Harlequins RL claimed a second win in a row and will probably be reflecting on the fact that they should be undefeated going into this game.  The schedule is favouring our southern heroes, offering them a genuine chance of notching a third consecutive win.  I remain to be convinced about the visitors though.  Last week they could have been out of the reckoning, the first week they were once the opposition found the keys to the ignition and in the second round a blistering start was enough.  Like many progressives I am keen for Harlequins to challenge for a trophy and a six out of eight points start is a tremendous foundation, representing as strong a start for them as I can remember.  My predictions for Harlequins are usually completely wrong so their fans will be pleased to know that I’m more than happy to predict that Cas will get their first win of the season, in front of a hungry crowd against a side that has the kind of inconsistency, with and without the ball, that can be exploited for a win.  Tigers by 2.

Huddersfield v Hull (+4)
My pick of the Super League games this weekend with teams hoping to keep the momentum going following last week’s kick-start to their years.  Huddersfield topped the half-century and in doing so forcibly instigated a re-evaluation of the Tigers fans’ expectations.  Similarly, Hull’s snatching of the points courtesy of a man of the match outing from, Saints fan, Danny Tickle left the visiting team’s fans pondering the same thought.  Prior to the start of the season Giants fans would have expected two points from the three openers whereas Hull fans will perhaps think that their two have come later than anticipated and with more relief than joy.  Slowly Hull are getting players back in their line-up and this game can be a big boost for them, if they win, lifting them to an even footing which is a good start bearing in mind what things were looking like after the home loss to Harlequins RL.  Currently, I have fewer concerns about the Giants.  There have been a couple of personnel changes but the heart of the team is fundamentally the same as it has been for a couple of years with that stability reaping rewards in terms of results and I think that it’s also given the fans a bit more patience with their side.  Knowing that your team can come back from a seven game losing streak means that losses against the Bulls and Leeds are nothing in the greater scheme of things and this Sunday’s tussle is where the real business is.  A win isn’t critical for either side, for the side that wins though, well there’ll be plenty of reasons to get excited.  For Hull, squad depletion will have been overcome and for the Giants it’s a potential first big puff out of the chest.  Tough call.  Giants by 4.

Saints v Wakefield (+24)
Despite not claiming too many victories at Knowsley Road over the years, Wakefield have, in recent years, delivered some competitive performances, demonstrating some nice attacking play whilst doing so, mainly under John Kear.  For most there isn’t really a good time to be playing against a title favourite, particularly not on their own turf.  This week, with Saints missing several regulars and looking under strength in the pack, could be one of those exceptions where you’ve got a right to believe.  As ever, fate intervenes and instead of being in a position where the opposition’s welfare statistics provide you with assistance, Wakefield have their own series of M*A*S*H with Brad Drew out for a few months, Demetriou and Tony Martin probably missing for three or four rounds.  Kear has an uncanny ability to produce upsets, of that there is no doubt.  I am not as confident about him being able to lift his teams to a positive result from situations of adversity and Demetriou and Drew missing is a full-size problem for them.  Both players have been excellent over the past two seasons with Demetriou excelling and earning plaudits and respect from on the field and off it.  Had Demetriou not left the field last week I think that Wakefield would have exploited their first half dominance to see out the game with a win.  To miss two players, in a side without big name stars is even worse than losing Smith and Inglis.  Saints by 16.

Warrington v Catalans (+1
Brilliant win last week for Wire even if it was a wilting or switching off win.  There are never that many happy bus journeys back from the east coast and last week’s result should be looked at from that perspective.  Catalans had the task of warming up the champions for this week’s world title clash so it’s difficult to assess just what kind of bearing on this game that result has.  Catalans started well at Leeds before penalties, injuries and the home side occasionally clicking eventually caught up with them, conceding 34 when it might have been 54.  That uncertainty about backing Warrington at home in a game they should win is present in this game because it’s a place where Catalans have proven they can win at.  However I’m prepared to give Warrington some confidence for this game because you don’t just rack up at the place of either of the Hull sides and rattle up a 28-0 lead without having some serious offensive power.  Wire’s ability to move the ball so quickly when on the opposition line has been devastating for them so far and there’s no reason to believe that Catalans can contain that.  Wolves by 10.

Last week’s predictions.
Bulls by 6 (lost by 6)
Wigoon by 6 (lost by 2)
Leeds by 18 (won by 2
Wakefield by 8 (lost by 16)
Giants by 6 (won by 52)
Hull KR by 6 (lost by 1)

Not the best predictions last week although both Saints and Hull won against the bookies odds.  The current running total 9 correct and 9 wrong thereby proving the premise that this competition is getting more competitive every year.